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How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern...
The Health and Safety Laboratory (HASL) of the Atomic Energy Commission has provided much of the data on exposure assessment in uranium contractor facilities and on fallout radionuclides in the environment. The research performed in the beryllium industry 1947-1949 led to establishment of the protection standards that exist to this day. This laboratory was formed in 1947, as part of the Medical Division of the New York Operations Office, directed by B.S. Wolf. HASL was directed initially by Merril Eisenbud and subsequently by S. Allen Lough and John Harley. The history of the Laboratory is traced from its beginning, and the projects described that led to HASL's reputation as a trouble-shooting arm of the Atomic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Food, analysis, conflict, fuel, systems
There is a growing recognition that the interrelations between agriculture, food, bioenergy, and climate change have to be better understood in order to derive more realistic estimates of future bioenergy potentials. This article estimates global bioenergy potentials in the year 2050, following a “food first” approach. It presents integrated food, livestock, agriculture, and bioenergy scenarios for the year 2050 based on a consistent representation of FAO projections of future agricultural development in a global biomass balance model. The model discerns 11 regions, 10 crop aggregates, 2 livestock aggregates, and 10 food aggregates. It incorporates detailed accounts of land use, global net primary production (NPP)...
We collected blood for allozyme analysis from Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona during 1991-1993 to quantify frequency of extra-pair fertilizations (EPFs). Northern Goshawks are socially monogamous, territorial, noncolonial, synchronous breeders, and their nests are relatively far apart, characteristics that suggest that EPFs should be low. We sampled 103 adults and 122 nestlings from 64 nests. Both putative parents were sampled at 39 nests, but we were able to capture and sample only one putative parent at 25 other nests (84%, female only: 16%, male only). Of the 39 complete families sampled, only 1 of 77 (1.3%) nestlings (or in 1 of 39 clutches, 2.6%)...
Carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of human fingernails were measured in 490 individuals in the western US and 273 individuals in southeastern Brazil living in urban areas, and 53 individuals living in a moderately isolated area in the central Amazon region of Brazil and consuming mostly locally grown foods. In addition, we measured the carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of common food items to assess the extent to which these isotopic signatures remain distinct for people eating both omnivorous and vegetarian diets and living in different parts of the world, and the extent to which dietary information can be interpreted from these analyses. Fingernail δ13C values (mean ± standard deviation) were −15.4 ± 1.0 and...
Two basic retorting technologies are being developed: modified in situ (MIS) for underground retorting, and aboveground retorting (AGR) for processing mined shale. These technologies are not presently ready for large-scale commercialization, but a sound R&D base exists, and they could be made ready either by modular demonstration projects or construction of pioneer plants. The MIS process is being developed on two sites and one commercial facility is planned. Aboveground retorts have been tested at up to one-tenth of full size and at least one commercial-scale retort is planned in conjunction with an MIS demonstration. There are no firm plans for testing other above- -ground retorts, although several companies have...
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
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Seasonal forages of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) were analyzed for dry matter, crude protein, in vitro digestibility, and cell wall content. Qualitative nutrient intake was estimated by combining chemical analyses with diet-composition data. Composite diets were also analyzed for the above parameters as well as for phosphorus and calcium. Dietary quality generally declined from spring to winter. Diet digestibility was good to excellent year-round, indicating that desert bighorn were receiving adequate energy. Protein levels were high in spring but were probably deficient for lactating ewes and young lambs in summer and fall. Diets were deficient in phosphorus in all seasons. Forbs had higher protein...
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
    map background search result map search result map Seasonal nutrition of desert Bighorn sheep in Canyonlands National Park, Utah Seasonal nutrition of desert Bighorn sheep in Canyonlands National Park, Utah