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The Jago, Okpilak, and Hulahula rivers in the Arctic are heavily glaciated waterways that are important for fish and wildlife as well as human activities including the provision of food, recreation, and, potentially, resource extraction on the coastal plain. If current glacial melting trends continue, most of the ice in these rivers will disappear in the next 50-100 years. Because of their importance to human and natural communities, it is critical to understand how these rivers and their surrounding environments will be affected by climate change and glacier loss. The overarching goal of this project was to research (1) the amount of river water, sediment, nutrients, and organic matter in the Jago, Okpilak, and...
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In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere...
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The Gulf of Alaska is one of the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth, supporting salmon fisheries that alone provide nearly $1 billion per year in economic benefits to Southeast Alaska. Glaciers are central to many of the area’s natural processes and economic activities, but the rates of glacier loss in Alaska are among the highest on Earth, with a 26-36 percent reduction in total volume expected by the end of the century. This project brought together scientists and managers at a workshop to synthesize the impacts of glacier change on the region’s coastal ecosystems and to determine related research and monitoring needs. Collected knowledge shows that melting glaciers are expected to have cascading effects...
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Suicide Basin is a glacier-fed lake that branches off Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau, Alaska. Since 2011, Suicide Basin has been collecting melt- and rainwater each summer, creating a temporary glacier-dammed lake. Water that accumulates typically gets released through channels that run beneath the glacier. These channels are normally blocked by ice, but if the water pressure gets too high the channel breaks open, rapidly draining the basin in what is known as an “outburst flood”. In past years, these events have led to flooding along Mendenhall Lake and Mendenhall River in the most heavily populated neighborhood of Juneau. Because of the threats posed to infrastructure in the Mendenhall Valley, it is critical that...
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Rates of glacier loss in the northern Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) are among the highest on Earth. These changes in glacier volume and extent will affect the flow and chemistry of coastal rivers, as well as the nearshore marine ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Runoff from glaciers accounts for about half of the land-to-ocean movement of freshwater into the GOA, strongly influencing the freshwater and marine ecosystems along the coast. Runoff from glaciers, for example, significantly impacts the water temperature and clarity of aquatic habitats, which are important conditions for salmon reproduction. Moreover, runoff from glaciers along the GOA is an important factor in the structure of the...
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Ongoing climate change has the potential to negatively impact Alaska’s ecosystems and the critical services that they provide. These ecosystem services include supplying food and fiber for Alaskan communities, offering opportunities for recreational, cultural, and spiritual activities, and regulating temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding, etc.). Scientists build models to better understand processes and interactions in the natural environment and to use what we know to predict what will happen in the future, so that we can plan for it. Researchers from multiple institutions and disciplines developed an Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The model helps forecast how climate...
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The thawing of ice-rich soils in permafrost landscapes, a process known as thermokarst, can result in profound impacts on the energy and water balance, carbon fluxes, wildlife habitat, and existing infrastructure in the local area. The Alaska Thermokarst Model is a “state-and-transition" model being developed to simulate landscape evolution in polygonal tundra landscapes commonly found on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. This study will focus on the second step of the landscape evolution process – initiation of the thermokarst process through the concept of “climate priming” of the landscape. “Climate priming” occurs when there is high early and total winter snow precipitation, above normal winter temperatures,...
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As glaciers melt from climate change, their contents – namely, large quantities of freshwater, sediment, and nutrients – are slowly released into coastal ecosystems. This project addressed the impacts of melting glaciers on coastal ecosystems in the Copper River region of the Gulf of Alaska, which is home to several commercially important fisheries. Researchers examined how glacial melting is altering the amount and timing of freshwater that enters the Gulf of Alaska from the Copper River. They also investigated the source and amount of two nutrients, iron and nitrate, dissolved in the water. As a complementary piece of the study, researchers tested the relationship between nutrient levels, plankton populations,...
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Permafrost – the thick layer of permanently frozen soil found in Arctic regions – has been thawing rapidly over the past century due to climate change. When permafrost thaws unevenly, it produces thermokarst landscapes, irregular surfaces of small hills interspersed with hollows. The processes that produce thermokarst can lead to significant changes within the surrounding ecosystems, altering water quality, vegetation, and water, carbon, and nutrient storage and flows. These changes can have substantial implications for fish and wildlife populations and disrupt rural communities and infrastructure. The goal of this project was to better understand the extent of thermokarst processes and the rate at which they...
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Retreating glaciers are an iconic image of climate change;yet not all glaciers in Alaska are actively retreating, and a few glaciers are even advancing. While this contrasting behavior can be misleading for the casual observer, variable responses between glaciers in a changing climate are expected. Glaciers act as conveyor belts that transport snow and ice from high elevations, where it does not melt, down to low elevations, where it does melt. A change in climate can impact the amount of snow and ice that accumulates (accumulation), the way snow and ice melt (ablation), or the conveyor belt (ice dynamics). While these impacts vary with elevation and glacier shape, glacier changes have major implications for downstream...
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Areas along the Arctic coast are changing the fastest among all of Earth’s habitats due to climate change. The Arctic coast is a fragile ecosystem that provides habitat for migratory birds, endangered species, and species critical for local subsistence living. In this area, permafrost is thawing rapidly, changing how much and when water reaches rivers, ponds, lakes, wetlands and groundwater. In addition, there is also a growing interest in oil and gas resource exploration. With ongoing permafrost thaw, future warming, and interests in oil and gas extraction in the coastal plain (also known as the 1002 area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it is urgent to improve the understanding of this area and its vulnerability...
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Permanently frozen ground, known as permafrost, is a critical feature of the Arctic landscape. As temperatures warm, permafrost is thawing, with potentially adverse impacts to infrastructure, communities, and the structure and function of Arctic ecosystems. However, the processes leading to changes in permafrost are not well understood, and there is a need to better understand the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw. Addressing these gaps in information regarding permafrost characteristics and dynamics, and what these changes will mean for human communities and ecosystems, will support management and planning efforts. This project seeks to address these gaps through several mechanisms. First researchers have synthesized...
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Permafrost is a layer of perennially frozen soil that primarily exists in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world. While a shallow near-surface soil layer (called active layer) thaws during the summer and re-freezes in the winter, the underlying permafrost remains perennially frozen, often underlying buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. As warmer temperatures become more common, thawing of permafrost could have major consequences for Alaska. Where thawing has already occurred, dramatic changes in ecosystems and existing infrastructure are evident. For example, thawing permafrost along the ocean shore and riverbanks in Northern Alaska is causing substantial coastal erosion and is impacting...
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The hydrology of the Yukon River Basin has changed over the last several decades as evidenced by a variety of discharge, gravimetric, and geochemical analyses. The Indigenous Observation Network (ION), a community-based project, was initiated by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council and USGS. Capitalizing on existing USGS monitoring and research infrastructure and supplementing USGS collected data, ION investigates changes in surface water geochemistry and active layer dynamics throughout the Yukon River Basin. Over 1600 samples of surface water geochemistry (i.e., major ions, dissolved organic carbon, and 18O and 2H) have been collected at 35 sites throughout the Yukon River and its major tributaries...
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Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety. As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding...
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Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are significantly impacting the terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems that communities rely on for food, water, recreation, and tourism. For example, changing weather patterns are leading to more frequent and severe extreme storms, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and heat waves. Communities in both regions have deep...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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The Gulf of Alaska is one of the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth, supporting salmon fisheries that alone provide large economic benefits to Southeast Alaska. The region also has a vibrant and growing tourism industry. Glaciers are central to many of the area’s natural processes and economic activities, but the rates of glacier loss in Alaska are among the highest on Earth. Glacier loss threatens to significantly change the amount and timing of nutrients delivered by streams to near-shore habitats. Changes in glacier runoff into the ocean may also impact coastal currents that contribute to vibrant nearshore marine ecosystems. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems depend on glaciers and what glacier...
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The Nome Creek Experimental Watershed (NCEW) has been the site of multiple studies focused on understanding hydrology, biogeochemistry, and ecosystem changes related to permafrost thaw and fire in the boreal forest. The boreal forest is the Earth’s largest terrestrial biome, and thus plays a major role in biogeochemical cycling, creation of habitat for wildlife, as well as wilderness and resources for humans. This project specifically investigates tracers experiments designed to provide comparative hydrological and soils investigations in a small, fire impacted, boreal forest watershed with discontinuous permafrost. The dataset includes field collected data on soil moisture, meteorology, stream flow, aquatic biogeochemistry,...
    map background search result map search result map Impacts of Climate Change and Melting Glaciers on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska Understanding the Impacts of Permafrost Change: Providing Input into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model The Impacts of Glacier Change on the Jago, Okpilak, and Hulahula Rivers in the Arctic From Icefield to Ocean: Glacier Change Impacts to Alaska’s Coastal Ecosystems Assessing Links between Glaciers and the Northern Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Ecosystem Monitoring Thermokarst on the Landscapes of Northern Alaska Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Ice2O: A Continued Assessment of Icefield-to-Ocean Change in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Permafrost Change and Impacts on Infrastructure and Resources in Alaska: A Synthesis of Past Work Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Nome Creek Boreal, Fire and Permafrost Hydrology investigations Yukon River Basin Indigenous Observation Network Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Assessing the Vulnerability of Alaska’s Glaciers in a Changing Climate Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making Identification of Regions in Alaska Susceptible to Landscape Deformation Due to “Climate Priming” of Permafrost Soils Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events The Impacts of Glacier Change on the Jago, Okpilak, and Hulahula Rivers in the Arctic Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making Ice2O: A Continued Assessment of Icefield-to-Ocean Change in the Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Impacts of Climate Change and Melting Glaciers on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities Monitoring Thermokarst on the Landscapes of Northern Alaska From Icefield to Ocean: Glacier Change Impacts to Alaska’s Coastal Ecosystems Assessing Links between Glaciers and the Northern Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Ecosystem Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Assessing the Vulnerability of Alaska’s Glaciers in a Changing Climate Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Identification of Regions in Alaska Susceptible to Landscape Deformation Due to “Climate Priming” of Permafrost Soils Nome Creek Boreal, Fire and Permafrost Hydrology investigations Yukon River Basin Indigenous Observation Network Understanding the Impacts of Permafrost Change: Providing Input into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate Permafrost Change and Impacts on Infrastructure and Resources in Alaska: A Synthesis of Past Work