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Thehigh demand for water, the recent multiyear drought (1999–2007), andprojections of global warming have raised questions about the long-termsustainability of water supply in the southwestern United States. Inthis study, the potential effects of specific levels of atmosphericwarming on water-year streamflow in the Colorado River basin areevaluated using a water-balance model, and the results are analyzedwithin the context of a multi-century tree-ring reconstruction (1490–1998) ofstreamflow for the basin. The results indicate that if futurewarming occurs in the basin and is not accompanied byincreased precipitation, then the basin is likely to experience periodsof water supply shortages more severe than those...