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Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the biggest threats to the Hawaiian coastline, and resource managers of coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i must begin planning now for future impacts. The majority of these impacts are expected to occur from 2040 – 2100. PICCC funded research from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa has provided decision makers with tools to assist in adaptively managing the impacts of SLR at three coastal wetland environments in south Maui, north Maui, and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge. They also ranked threats on the basis of input from wetland management experts to develop maps of SLR impacts and vulnerability. The researchers concluded that decision makers must quickly act to develop and implement...
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In the tropics, ample freshwater is the primary resource supporting thriving human and ecological communities. In the Pacific Islands, many watersheds are threatened by climate change, urban encroachment, and invasion by water-demanding exotic plant species like strawberry guava (SG). To maintain an adequate freshwater supply, adaptive management strategies are needed to address these concerns while confronting operational barriers to implementation. We developed a prototype watershed decision support tool (WDST) that incorporated: (i) distributed hydrology modeling to quantify effects of climate change and SG invasion on freshwater yield; (ii) a decision support tool that linked potential changes in yield with...
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
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Islands exhibit the planet’s most unique flora and fauna, but biodiversity on islands is also vulnerable to the impending forces of global change. The Micronesian high island of Pohnpei exemplifies the diversity of oceanic islands, as it is home to the world lowest montane-cloud forest, vast mangrove forests, and 6 endemic bird species. We conducted a survey to assess the status of Pohnpei’s current bird population. We estimated detection rates across elevation zones, habitat-specific occupancy rates for 13 species, and habitat specific densities for 10 species. We coupled results with data from previous surveys to assess the potential impacts of vegetation change on Pohnpei avifauna during the last three decades....
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse...
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Human effects on the global climate system, principally through changing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, are expected to lead to significant warming and other associated changes in the climate worldwide. Human-induced climate changes are likely already observable in quantities such as the global mean temperature, and over the next century can be expected to include significant effects on the local environment in Hawaii and other Pacific Islands. The currently available climate change projections from global coupled atmosphere/ocean models, as summarized for example in the recent IPCC assessment reports, have very limited direct application to Hawaii or other Pacific islands,...
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Coral reefs are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Importantly though, the degree of threat varies for different coral reef areas due to differences in local and regional climate drivers. Climate models are based on the scientific community’s understanding of climate drivers and were used during this project to look forward or ‘project’ conditions in coral reef areas. The projections are global maps that depict changes in acidification and the frequency and severity of the temperature stress events that cause coral bleaching. The project team found that the date by which really severe bleaching is projected to occur annually varies with latitude. Beyond this...
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This study focused on sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems in Hawai‘i to climate change. These Hawaiian ecosystems are becoming warmer and drier, and are relevant because they house many rare species, represent the last remaining stretches of uninvaded landscapes, and include wao akua – the small-statured cloud forests of great cultural significance that are the ‘realm of the gods’. Rapid climate change here presents a disproportionately high climate change impact risk. We provided models that relate current, past, and future distribution of plant species from 6000 – 7500’ feet in elevation on Haleakalā, to mean climate, extreme drought events, and soil properties. We constructed 24 models of current vegetation...
    map background search result map search result map High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean Integrating detailed assessments of climate threats on Pacific coral reefs and responses of traditional Hawaiian communities into management planning