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Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, 2014, Birds, Birds, CASC, All tags... CASC, Climate indicators, Completed, Migratory birds, North American Breeding Bird Survey, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, occupancy models, Fewer tags Projecting the Future of Headwater Streams to Inform Management Decisions There is growing evidence that headwater stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changing climate and land use, but managers are challenged by the need to address these threats at a landscape scale, often through coordination with multiple management agencies and landowners. This project sought to provide an example of cooperative landscape decision-making by addressing the conservation of headwater stream ecosystems in the face of climate change at the watershed scale. Predictive models were built for critical resources to examine the effects of the potential alternative actions on the objectives, taking account of climate effects and examining whether there are key uncertainties that impede decision making.... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Completed, Northeast, Northeast CASC, All tags... Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Supporting Early Career Climate Communications and Networking The Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey have made it a priority to train the next generation of scientists and resource managers. The Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) and consortium institutions are working to contribute to this initiative by building and supporting a network of students across the country who are interested in the climate sciences and climate adaptation. The purpose of this project was to support the development of a national early career communication platform to facilitate and increase information sharing and networking across the CASCs and consortium institutions. This was accomplished by working with the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a CASC-supported science... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, CASC, Completed, Northeast, Northeast CASC, All tags... Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, State of the Science, State of the Science, Fewer tags Science to Assess Future Conservation Practices for the Mississippi River Basin USFWS Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) throughout the Mississippi River Basin (MRB) have identified high nutrient runoff, a major contributor to Gulf hypoxia, and declines in wildlife populations (especially grassland and riparian birds), as conservation challenges requiring collaborative action. This project aimed to develop a spatial decision support system (DSS) to address these issues. The DSS was designed to identify MRB watersheds where application of conservation practices can (1) reduce nutrient export to the Gulf hypoxia zone and (2) enhance conservation for grassland and riparian birds, based on (3) identifying landowners willing and capable of implementing these practices. The DSS is expected... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, Bird Conservation, Birds, Birds, Birds, All tags... CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Decision Support System, Gulf Hypoxia, Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools For Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, South Central, South Central, South Central CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Wetlands, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2019, Birds, Birds, Birds, CASC, All tags... Grasslands and Plains, Grasslands and Plains, Landscapes, Landscapes, National CASC, National CASC, National CASC, North Central, North Central CASC, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, South Central, South Central CASC, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2020, Alaska, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, All tags... Completed, National CASC, National CASC, National CASC, Northeast, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Pacific Islands, Pacific Islands, Pacific Islands CASC, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, South Central, South Central, South Central CASC, Southeast, Southeast, Southeast CASC, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Forests in the eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest, and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees celsius. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Completed, Forests, Forests, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Fewer tags Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Fish, Fish, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, coastal, fish, forage fish, marine, migratory waterbirds, phenology, predators, prey, Fewer tags Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Fish, Fish, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change Prairie ecosystems and the grassland birds that rely on them for habitat may be particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate. Extensive portions of prairie have already been lost due to agriculture and urbanization, and as a result grassland birds have declined more than any other bird group in the last four decades. Now, climate change could exacerbate existing threats to these birds as temperatures in certain prairie ecosystems are expected to rise and extreme weather events, such as drought, could become more common. The goal of this project was to develop a framework to identify demographic sensitivities and assess the vulnerability of grassland bird species to future climate change. To do so, the researchers... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Forests, Forests, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, demographic rates, distribution, forest management, physiology, surrogate species, Fewer tags Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2019, Birds, Birds, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast The forests of the Northeastern United States are home to some of the greatest diversity of nesting songbirds in the country. Climate change, shifts in natural disturbance regimes, and invasive species pose threats to forest habitats and bird species in the northeastern United States and represent major challenges to natural resource managers. Although broad adaptation approaches have been suggested for sustaining forested habitats under global change, it is unclear how effective the implementation of these strategies at local and regional scales will be for maintaining habitat conditions for a broad suite of forest-dependent bird species over time. Moreover, given the diversity in forest stakeholders across the... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2018, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, adaptation science, forest habitats, forest-dependent birds, Fewer tags NorEaST: A Tool to Understand the Responses of Fish to Changes in Stream Temperature Climate change is expected to alter stream temperature and flow regimes over the coming decades, and in turn influence distributions of aquatic species in those freshwater ecosystems. To better anticipate these changes, there is a need to compile both short- and long-term stream temperature data for managers to gain an understanding of baseline conditions, historic trends, and future projections. Unfortunately, many agencies lack sufficient resources to compile, conduct quality assurance and control, and make accessible stream temperature data collected through routine monitoring. Yet, pooled data from many sources, even if temporally and spatially inconsistent, can have great value both in the realm of stream temperature... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, FY 2012, Northeast, All tags... Northeast CASC, Northeast Climate Science Center, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, climate-change effects, stream temperature, Fewer tags An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on fish have mostly ignored lakes, and focused instead on streams. Because surface waters represent a network of habitats, an integrated assessment of stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for decision-making. This work can be used to inform the preservation of lake/stream... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Fish, Fish, All tags... Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Slowing the Flow for Climate Resilience: Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Flood and Drought Events In the Northeastern U.S., climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, less rain is predicted to fall in between these extreme events and air temperatures are also expected to rise. This combination of conditions will likely expose the Northeast to both floods and droughts that will have significant ecological, social, and economic implications for the region. Infrastructure damage from extreme storm events, increased competition for water supplies during droughts, and the potential loss of wildlife and habitats are some of the various challenges facing resource managers and decision makers. Management actions that mitigate the damage from extreme floods and droughts... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, CASC, Completed, Drought, Drought, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Wetlands, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags “Hyperscale” Modeling to Understand and Predict Temperature Changes in Midwest Lakes Many inland waters across the United States are experiencing warming water temperatures. The impacts of this warming on aquatic ecosystems are significant in many areas, causing problems for fisheries management, as many economically and ecologically important fish species are experiencing range shifts and population declines. Fisheries and natural resource managers need timely and usable data and tools in order to understand and predict changes to lakes and their biota. A previous Northeast CSC-funded project modeled lake temperatures to help state agencies in the Midwest understand trends in walleye and largemouth bass populations and predict lake-specific fish populations under future climate scenarios. These... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2017, CASC, Completed, Fish, Fish, All tags... Lake temperature, Northeast, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, fish habitat, thermal refugia, Fewer tags Assessing Climate Change Threats and Adaptation Strategies in Northeast State Wildlife Action Plans Every 10 years, state fish and wildlife management agencies must comprehensively review, and if necessary revise, their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These are important planning documents that serve as blueprints for conserving fish, wildlife, and their habitat, and for preventing species listings in each state. These plans focus on species that have been identified as being of greatest conservation need, but also address the full array of wildlife and wildlife-related issues in a state. States last reviewed and revised their SWAPs in 2015, and will do so again in 2025. In 2016-2017, the Northeast Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) synthesized the 14 SWAP reports from the Northeast region.... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2018, CASC, Fish, Fish, Northeast, All tags... Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Science to Examine the Interactions Between Climate, Agriculture, and Water Quality The purpose of the project was to conduct an extensive search for completed and ongoing research that deals with climate change and agriculture in the context of water quality, for the Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC. The search to acquire this information was two-fold. One portion of the search dealt with an online literature search for published peer-reviewed articles for the period of approximately 2000 to present. The second portion of the search dealt with contacting US Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers and state institutions to request information on current research projects dealing with this topic that... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Fewer tags 1 2 »