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Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning. In this approach, a subset of global climate model projections are selected that represent a range of plausible future climate scenarios for a particular area. Through a series of facilitated workshops, managers can then explore different management... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Grasslands and Plains, Grasslands and Plains, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, North Central, North Central CASC, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, northern Great Plains, scenario planning, simulation modeling, Fewer tags Targeting grassland conservation: An Estimate of Land-Use Conversion Risk in the Northern Great Plains WWF and partners will assess the probability of grasslands being converted to cropland in the Northern Great Plains by analyzing land characteristics (e.g. soil properties conducive to specific crops), climate variables (e.g. rainfall, temperature before and during the growing season) associated with different land uses. The conversion risk analysis will produce a statistical model that explains which factors drive grassland conversion and can predict grassland conversion risk across the NGP- at five and ten years from present. Likely impacts from climate change on suitability of lands for different crops will be incorporated by simulating conversion risks unde alternative future climate scenarios at 20 and 40... Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2012, Conservation Design, Conservation NGOs, All tags... EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, Grasslands, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Land Use, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Northern Great Plains, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Project, Report, State agencies, Vulnerability Assessment, completed, environment, environment, land-use conversion, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, Fewer tags Completion of National Wetland Inventory for the Northern Great Plains Complete the National Wetlands Inventory for the remaining portion of the LCC using existing imagery. Needed to develop geospatial models based on landscape-level land use and to aid in monitoring wetlands to assess effects of climate change. Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2010, 2011, Conservation Design, Conservation NGOs, All tags... Data Acquisition and Development, Datasets/Database, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Northern Great Plains, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Project, State agencies, completed, environment, environment, national wetlands inventory, plains and prairie potholes landscape conservation cooperative, wetlands, Fewer tags Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Although it is certain that climate change will affect the hydrology and biota of Great Plains streams, how and where these effects will be manifested is not known. This project will predict the effects of climate change on these streams by creating watershed hydrology and fish assemblage models that are both linked to watershed characteristics, then predicting changes resulting from climate change using an ensemble of general circulation models. We will identify the areas of primary conservation concern by calculating Index of Biotic Integrity values for 1,600 samples in an existing regional fish database and compare them to the areas that are most likely to experience change under future climate scenarios. Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, 2012, 2013, Conservation NGOs, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, All tags... Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Northern Great Plains, Plains and Prairie Potholes Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Project, Report, State agencies, Streams, Tribes, Vulnerability Assessment, Vulnerability Assessment, climate change, completed, environment, environment, native fishes, Fewer tags