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Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when, suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may shift these “good prescribed-fire days” earlier in the spring and later in the fall, but uncertainty about future climate makes it hard to predict how large shifts will be and if the number of good fire days each year will generally increase or decrease. Further, it’s hard to know whether prescribed fires will continue to achieve...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, and how climate change effects will unfold. While models can be used to predict the types of impacts that climate change might have on a landscape, uncertainty remains surrounding factors such as how quickly changes will occur and how specific resources will respond. In order to plan for this uncertain future, managers have begun to use a tool known as scenario planning. In this approach, a subset of global climate model projections are selected that represent a range of plausible future climate scenarios for a particular area. Through a series of facilitated workshops, managers can then explore different management...
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WWF and partners will assess the probability of grasslands being converted to cropland in the Northern Great Plains by analyzing land characteristics (e.g. soil properties conducive to specific crops), climate variables (e.g. rainfall, temperature before and during the growing season) associated with different land uses. The conversion risk analysis will produce a statistical model that explains which factors drive grassland conversion and can predict grassland conversion risk across the NGP- at five and ten years from present. Likely impacts from climate change on suitability of lands for different crops will be incorporated by simulating conversion risks unde alternative future climate scenarios at 20 and 40...
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Although it is certain that climate change will affect the hydrology and biota of Great Plains streams, how and where these effects will be manifested is not known. This project will predict the effects of climate change on these streams by creating watershed hydrology and fish assemblage models that are both linked to watershed characteristics, then predicting changes resulting from climate change using an ensemble of general circulation models. We will identify the areas of primary conservation concern by calculating Index of Biotic Integrity values for 1,600 samples in an existing regional fish database and compare them to the areas that are most likely to experience change under future climate scenarios.
    map background search result map search result map Completion of National Wetland Inventory for the Northern Great Plains Targeting grassland conservation: An Estimate of Land-Use Conversion Risk in the Northern Great Plains Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Model-Based Scenario Planning to Inform Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains Targeting grassland conservation: An Estimate of Land-Use Conversion Risk in the Northern Great Plains Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Completion of National Wetland Inventory for the Northern Great Plains Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Native Fishes in Northern Great Plains Streams