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Salmonids, a group of coldwater adapted fishes of enormous ecological and socio-economic value, historically inhabited a variety of freshwater habitats throughout the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Over the past century, however, populations have dramatically declined due to habitat loss, overharvest, and invasive species. Consequently, many populations are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Complicating these stressors is global warming and associated climate change. Overall, aquatic ecosystems across the PNW are predicted to experience increasingly earlier snowmelt in the spring, reduced late spring and summer flows, increased winter flooding, warmer and drier summers, increased...
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Climate responses of sagebrush are needed to inform land managers of the stability and restoration of sagebrush ecosystems, which are an important but threatened habitat type. We evaluated climate responses of sagebrush using two approaches: (1) experimental manipulations of temperature and precipitation for natural plants in the field, and (2) assessment of how climate adaptation and weather have affected sagebrush seeding efforts on nearly 25 large-scale sagebrush seeding projects done over the past several decades. Experimental warming increased growth of sagebrush in high-elevation meadows in the Teton Mountains, but had marginal or no effect at lower elevations sites (near Twin Falls and Boise, Idaho, respectively)....
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Wild berries are a valued traditional food for tribes of the Chugachmiut Tribal Consortium (Chenega Bay, Eyak, Nanwalek, Port Graham, Qutekcak, Tatitlek, and Valdez) in the rural Chugach region of south-central Alaska. Berries supply essential nutrients that prevent heart disease and cancer, are used for medicinal purposes, and are the only sweet food in the traditional Native diet. Hence, berries have both nutritional and cultural significance. From 2008 to 2012, wild berry populations in the Chugach region were decimated by an unexpected outbreak of moths, thought to have been brought about by shifting climate (i.e., warmer temperatures allowed a greater number of moths to survive the winter). This outbreak...
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Mature, old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest provide critical habitat for threatened and endangered species, including the northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet. Dominated by large Douglas-firs and western hemlocks, these established forests range in age from 200 to 1,000 years old. Yet wildfire activity is increasing across western North America, heightening concerns about severe fires that have the potential to kill the upper canopy layer of forests. Known as “stand-replacing fires”, these extreme events have important implications for forest ecosystems, initiating forest regrowth and altering habitat for wildlife. Identifying locations that are protected from stand-replacing fire is an urgent management...
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Preparing for and responding to the impacts of climate change are critical to the wellbeing of tribal communities that rely on natural resources to sustain their families, communities, traditional ways of life, and cultural identities. Recognizing this, efforts across the country are underway to support and enhance the capacity of tribes to prepare for climate change risks. However, due to staffing, technical, and financial limitations, many tribes continue to experience difficulty initiating and completing the critical first step of the climate adaptation planning process: a “climate change vulnerability assessment”, i.e., a structured assessment of the specific potential impacts of climate change that the tribe...
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Native mussels are in precipitous decline across North America. As part of the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation’s (CTUIR) First Foods management framework that places significant value on the cultural importance of traditional food resources, they have been identified as a top conservation priority in the Pacific Northwest. Freshwater mussels are a vital component of river ecosystems, a historic food resource, and were used for adornment, jewelry, tools, and trade. Yet, little is known about the basic biology and ecology of these organisms, including where they are, how many of them remain, and what habitat characteristics (e.g., water temperature, flow, etc.) are important to them. There is...
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This data release includes data-processing scripts, data products, and associated metadata for a remote-sensing based approach to characterize vegetation conditions within a dry, mixed conifer forest study area in southern Oregon in 2001 (a single year drought without any widespread insect mortality) and 2009 (during a multi-year drought that coincided with a severe outbreak of mountain pine beetle; MPB). This analysis involved several steps. First, time-series climate data were compiled and plotted to identify drought periods. Similarly, time-series data representing insect outbreaks were compiled and plotted to identify trends in insect mortality. The study area was classified into forest canopy types using existing...
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Enhancing ecological connectivity - the degree to which landscapes facilitate the movement of the organisms within them - is a frequently recommended strategy for conserving wildlife populations into the future. This is because a primary way in which species respond to climate change is by adjusting their geographic ranges to find more suitable temperatures and adequate food supplies. It is also because connectivity facilitates many other important ecological and evolutionary processes within species' ranges, further promoting resilience and healthy populations. However, widespread fragmentation of landscapes by human activities presents a serious obstacle to these processes, which may contribute to a decline in...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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Tribal communities have spiritually rich and complex connections with the natural environment, and their traditions, identities, and economies rely heavily on local natural resources. Because of this intimate connection with nature, tribes are especially vulnerable to climate changes that disrupt their surroundings. Surprisingly, however, few studies have delved deeply into Native thinking around climate change and its cultural impacts. This project sought to understand the ways in which Native American culture and cultural practices in the northwestern U.S. have been affected by climate change. Researchers conducted in-depth interviews with tribal elders and cultural experts belonging to three Northwest tribes...
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Aspen is an environmentally, economically, and socially important species in the western U.S. It is typically the most abundant deciduous tree species in mountainous landscapes of the western U.S., providing food and habitat for a variety of wildlife, including black bear, deer, elk, moose, and numerous bird species. Aspen woodlands also provide high quality forage for livestock and draw tourists to the region to view the golden vistas that form in the fall. However, aspen is currently declining across large portions of the West and it’s estimated that approximately 40% of western aspen will be without suitable climate conditions within 50 years. In the northern and central Rocky Mountains, it’s thought that reduced...
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In the Pacific Northwest, temperatures are projected to increase 2-15°F by 2100. Winters are expected to become wetter and summers could become drier. Snowpack will likely decrease substantially, and snowmelt runoff may occur earlier in the year. Wildfires are projected to become more frequent and severe, and forest types are expected to change from maritime evergreen to subtropical mixed-woodlands. Because the impacts of climate change vary from place to place, regionally-specific climate projections are critical to help farmers, foresters, city planners, public utility providers, and fish and wildlife managers plan for how to best manage resources. However, the models that are used to project changes in climate...
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Downed wood on the forest floor does more than provide habitat for amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. These decomposing habitat structures modify the temperature and moisture conditions in the forest itself. Inside and around downed wood, local climate conditions, or microclimates, provide wildlife with stable habitats that allow for persistence during and after wildfires. Cooler, wetter microclimates buffer the effects of wildfire in Oregon’s forests, making microclimate an important component of forest management. Despite the significance of downed wood to forest ecosystem function, forest management practices require only two downed logs to be retained for every acre harvested. To better inform forest management...
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Mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on April 1 for the T4P10 climate change scenario.T4P10 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record, and +10% precipitation to each daily precipitation record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
The goal of this project was to use the latest global climate models from CMIP5 and state of the science models of vegetation and hydrology, to describe as accurately as possible what the latest science says about the Northwest’s future climate, vegetation, and hydrology. Researchers in the project began by evaluating the ability of CMIP5 models to simulate observed climate patterns in the Northwest region (Rupp et al. 2013). The researchers then used the best performing models to project likely future changes to the Northwest’s climate, hydrology, and vegetation. The dynamic global vegetation model MC2 was run with CMIP5 climate projections downscaled by John Abatzoglou (MACA method) and Katherine Hegewisch from...
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The percentage difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 28 for the reference period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 13 for the T2 climate change scenario, which are the dates of peak basin-integrated SWE for each period, respectively. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T2 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +2°C to each daily temperature record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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The percentage difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 28 for the reference period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on March 13 for the T2P10 climate change scenario, which are the dates of peak basin-integrated SWE for each period, respectively. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T2P10 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +2°C to each daily temperature record, and +10% precipitation to each daily precipitation record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
This update was provided to FWS on March 21, 2013. The assessment incorporates an evaluation of climate and non-climate threats, and potential interactions among them to evaluate potential bull trout persistence. In summary, it includes the following steps: 1) Map suitable habitat "patches" across the species' range in the conterminous United States; 2) Attribute patches with information on local and climate related threats; 3) Map and attribute migratory habitats for the species and their relationship to "patches;" and 4) model persistence of bull trout in relation to local and climate related threats in patches and migratory habitats. For more information, contact Jason Dunham, U.S. Geological Survey, Forest...
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This archive contains two datasets. Both cover the northwestern United States and part of southern British Columbia (N of about 38 degrees N and W of about 105 degrees W) at 1/16th (0.0625) degree resolution. Climate and hydrologic variables (21 total) in each are as follows: precipitation, temperature (avg./max./min.), outgoing longwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, evapotranspiration, runoff, baseflow, soil moisture (3-layers), snow water equivalent, snow depth, and potential evapotranspiration (5 vegetation references). The first dataset, "Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Dynamically Downscaled Data", contains daily dynamically downscaled climate...


map background search result map search result map Predicting Climate Change Impacts on River Ecosystems and Salmonids across the Pacific Northwest Sagebrush Ecosystems in a Changing Climate Projecting Future Climate, Vegetation, and Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Assessing the Cultural Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Tribes Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Datasets Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected April 1 values under T4P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected seasonal peak values under T2 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected seasonal peak values under T2P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Building Tribal Capacity to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change Analysis of remotely-sensed vegetation conditions during droughts and a mountain pine beetle outbreak, Gearhart Mountain Wilderness, Oregon Fire Refugia in Old-Growth Forests: Predicting Habitat Persistence to Support Land Management in an Era of Rapid Global Change Exploring Large Downed Wood as Post-Fire Refugia for Terrestrial Salamanders in Pacific Northwest Forests Native and Invasive Bivalves in the Pacific Northwest: Co-occurrence, Habitat Associations and Potential Competition in the Face of Climate Change Analysis of remotely-sensed vegetation conditions during droughts and a mountain pine beetle outbreak, Gearhart Mountain Wilderness, Oregon Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Modeled snow-water-equivalent, projected April 1 values under T4P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected seasonal peak values under T2 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Modeled snow-water-equivalent, percent difference between historical and projected seasonal peak values under T2P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Sagebrush Ecosystems in a Changing Climate Exploring Large Downed Wood as Post-Fire Refugia for Terrestrial Salamanders in Pacific Northwest Forests Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains Fire Refugia in Old-Growth Forests: Predicting Habitat Persistence to Support Land Management in an Era of Rapid Global Change Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Native and Invasive Bivalves in the Pacific Northwest: Co-occurrence, Habitat Associations and Potential Competition in the Face of Climate Change Assessing the Cultural Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Tribes Building Tribal Capacity to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change Predicting Climate Change Impacts on River Ecosystems and Salmonids across the Pacific Northwest Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Datasets Projecting Future Climate, Vegetation, and Hydrology in the Pacific Northwest Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington