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Climate change is expected to have different effects in different parts of the world. For this reason, regionally-specific projections of climate and environmental change are important to help those who need to plan how best to adapt. The goal of this project was to use the latest global climate models and state of the science models of vegetation and hydrology, to describe what the latest science says about the Northwest’s future climate, vegetation, and hydrology. Researchers in the project began by evaluating the ability of climate models to simulate observed climate patterns in the Northwest region. The best performing models were ‘downscaled’, that is, remapped onto the finer grids used in models of hydrology...
Abstract (from PLoS ONE): To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projections. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest. We compare model results for vegetation cover and carbon dynamics over the period 1895–2100 assuming: 1) unlimited wildfire ignitions versus stochastic ignitions, 2) no fire, and 3) a moderate CO2 fertilization effect versus no CO2fertilization effect. Carbon stocks decline in all scenarios,...
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The sagebrush rangelands of the Great Basin provide crucial habitat for a diversity of wildlife, including the pronghorn and the greater sage-grouse. These water-limited, highly-managed ecosystems have already been degraded by wildfires, the expansion of invasive grasses, and livestock grazing, and are expected to experience additional stress as climate and land use conditions change. Effective management of sagebrush ecosystems in the future will require the ability to understand and predict these future changes. To address this need, researchers will identify historical rates and causes of vegetation change in shrubland ecosystems, then use this information to develop potential future climate and land use scenarios...
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Fruit-producing shrubs such as huckleberries, salal, and hazelnut are an important component of social history and traditional tribal diets in the Pacific Northwest. The fruits of these shrubs are also an important food source for foraging wildlife and pollinators, and serve as the basis for both non-tribal harvesting and small-scale commercial operations. Among land managers and tribes, there is a strong interest in preserving and restoring these culturally important plant species across the Pacific Northwest. However, limited knowledge is available on the current ranges of shrub species, or how climate change will impact future ranges or the timing of flowering and fruiting for key Northwest shrub species. ...
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Within the Yurok Tribe’s territory in northwest California, tribal, public, and private land managers share the overlapping goal of promoting forests that are more resilient to climate-related disturbances through the implementation of forest treatments that are based on traditional tribal knowledge. Managers seek to understand how restoration strategies such as prescribed burning, tree harvesting, and fuel reduction can promote more resilient forests and increase the capacity of forests and human communities to adapt to extreme weather events, drought, fire, and pests and diseases. Very few existing studies of forest vulnerability and resilience have incorporated indigenous or tribal knowledge. In order to promote...
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This GIS dataset is the primary data product produced for the NW Climate Science Center-funded project, "Rangewide climate vulnerability assessment for threatened Bull Trout" (FRESC Study ID 851). We used predictions of temperatures in streams across approximately two-thirds of the species' range in the U.S. to map coldwater streams or “patches” suitable for spawning and early rearing of Bull Trout. Each patch consists of streams with contiguous reaches of cold water. Patches were delineated using medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset streams containing modeled temperatures available at 1 km intervals, as provided by the NorWeST project (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html).Once the...
The Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs(MACA)(Abatzoglou, Brown, 2011) method is a statistical downscaling method which utilizes a training dataset (i.e. a meteorological observation dataset) to remove historical biases and match spatial patterns in climate model output. The following products are available: MACAv1-METDATA is available for the Western USA, while MACAv2-LIVNEH/MACAv2-METDATA are available over the entire conterminous USA. MACAv2-LIVNEH/MACAv2-METDATA both use the newest version of the MACA method (version 2), while MACAv1-METDATA uses version 1. Both methods are very similar to that described by Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011. MACAv2-METDATA
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The research was conducted at nine tidal marshes in coastal estuaries spanning the Washington and Oregon coastlines from Padilla Bay in northern Washington to Bandon located at the mouth of the Coquille River in southern Oregon. We performed bathymetric surveys using a shallow-water echo-sounding system comprised of an acoustic profiler, Leica Viva RTK GPS, and laptop computer mounted on a shallow-draft, portable flat-bottom boat. The RTK GPS enabled high resolution elevations of the water surface. The rover positions were received from the Leica Smartnet system (www.lecia-geosystems.com) or base station and referenced to the same bench mark used in the elevation surveys. We mounted a variable frequency transducer...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1608-2): Many recent changes in tree species distributions, mortality, and growth rates have been linked to changes in climate. Managing forests in the face of climate change will require a basic understanding of which tree species will be most vulnerable to climate change and in what ways they will be vulnerable. We assessed the relative vulnerability to climate change of 11 tree species in western North America using a multivariate approach to quantify elements of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change, and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Our assessment was based on a combination of expert knowledge, published studies,...
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Estimates of weather suitability for the occurrence of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Weather suitability index was calculated by summing the weather terms in the model. Calculated for 1991 through 2009 based on 800 meter PRISM weather data. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates...
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The absolute difference between mean modeled snow-water-equivalent (meters) on April 1 for the reference (1989-2011) climate period and mean modeled snow-water-equivalent on April 1 for the T4P10 climate change scenario. Reference period: the period 1989 – 2011 for the Upper Deschutes River Basin domain, for which observed historical meteorology is used for model input. T4P10 scenario: the observed historical (reference period) meteorology is perturbed by adding +4°C to each daily temperature record, and +10% precipitation to each daily precipitation record in the reference period meteorology, and this data is then used as input to the model.
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Estimates of the probability of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cumulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates are the center of each 1 km grid cell.
Data Sources, inputs, parameters, and code for the MACA-VIC project final report. Consists of 3 tasks: 1. Consists of comparing results of the indexing method MTCLIM to estimate incoming short and long wave radiation, to observations, to BSRN station data, and to three Ameriflux towers in the Pacific Northwest. 2. Reports on forcing VIC with downscaled GCM forcings, with variations in two forcing variables: downward shortwave radiation (rad) and specific humidity (qair). For this task we consider the MACA downscaling method. Three cases are reported: a) both variables are downscaled; b) rad is indexed and qair is downscaled; c) rad is downscaled and qair is indexed. 3. Reports on forcing VIC with downscaled...
We assessed the performance of the MTCLIM scheme for estimating downward shortwave (SWdown) radiation and surface humidity from daily temperature range (DTR), as well as several schemes for estimating downward longwave radiation (LWdown), at 50 Baseline Solar Radiation Network stations globally. All of the algorithms performed reasonably well under most climate conditions, with biases and mean absolute errors generally less than 3% and 20%, respectively, over more than 70% of the global land surface. However, estimated SWdown had a bias of −26% at coastal sites, due to the ocean's moderating influence on DTR, and in continental interiors, SWdown had an average bias of −15% in the presence of snow, which was reduced...
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PCIC offers statisically downscaled daily climate scenarios, at a gridded resolution of 300 arc-seconds (0.0833 degrees, or roughly 10 km) for the simulated period of 1950-2100. The variables available include minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation. These downscaling outputs are based on Global Climate Model (GCM) projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and historical daily gridded climate data for Canada.​​ Statistical properties and spatial patterns of the downscaled scenarios are based on this gridded observational dataset, which represents one approximation of the actual historical climate. Gridded values may differ from climate stations and biases may...
map background search result map search result map Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Weather Suitability for the Occurrence of Mortality in Whitebark Pine from Mountain Pine Beetles, 1901-2009, Cascades Study Area Stream patches of suitable Bull Trout habitat and associated patch variables Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference in historical and projected April 1 values under T4P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Statistically down-scaled climate scenarios for the simulated period of 1950-2100 for the Northwest US and British Columbia, Canada Climate Impacts on the Locations and Availability of Traditional Food Sources from Native Northwestern Shrubs Bathymetry Digital Elevation Models for Eight Study Areas in Coastal Oregon and Washington, 2012 Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Modeled snow-water-equivalent, absolute difference in historical and projected April 1 values under T4P10 climate change scenario, Upper Deschutes River Basin, Oregon [full and clipped versions] Identifying Historical Drivers of Vegetation Change to Inform Future Management of Federal Lands in the Northern Great Basin Promoting Resilience and Adaptive Capacity of Forests and Tribal Communities in Northern California Bathymetry Digital Elevation Models for Eight Study Areas in Coastal Oregon and Washington, 2012 Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Weather Suitability for the Occurrence of Mortality in Whitebark Pine from Mountain Pine Beetles, 1901-2009, Cascades Study Area Statistically down-scaled climate scenarios for the simulated period of 1950-2100 for the Northwest US and British Columbia, Canada Stream patches of suitable Bull Trout habitat and associated patch variables Climate Impacts on the Locations and Availability of Traditional Food Sources from Native Northwestern Shrubs