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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
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The conditions of coral reefs in the Hawaiian Islands are predicted to decline significantly from climate change over the next 100 years. To better prepare for the impacts of climate change on Hawaiian reefs, the research team uses a system of models to simulate ocean waves and circulation, rainfall and storm run-off, and coral reef community dynamics through the year 2100. These models will identify reef areas that are either vulnerable or resilient to the many stressors that the future may hold for reefs. The team’s hope is that this work can identify areas that might benefit from management actions to minimize local stressors such as land-based pollution. Through a collaborative partnership with state and federal...
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Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services critical to human well-being (e.g., protection from storms and floods, food, income, recreation, and cultural practices), but they are threatened by growing human pressures and climate change. Resource managers must make complex decisions when developing adaptation plans that are cost-effective and maintain coral reef functions while still allowing for human use and development. Through this project, scientists developed a decision-support tool for managers to (1) identify the areas that provide the most critical coral reef services (i.e., supply the most value to humans) as well as the areas of reef most threatened, and (2) compare the effects of reef management...
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
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The Hawaiian Islands are home to some of the world’s most culturally valuable but imperiled forest birds, including brightly colored native honeycreepers, many of which are threatened or endangered. One of the major threats these birds face is avian malaria, which is spread by a species of introduced mosquito and can have death rates exceeding 90 percent. For decades, upper mountain forests have provided refuge for Hawaiian forest birds because mosquitoes (and thus the disease) could not survive the cooler temperatures. However, warming associated with climate change could change this. Scientists used climate data and an epidemiological model to evaluate the future impacts of avian malaria on Hawaiian forest birds...
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Coral reefs are sometimes called “rainforests of the sea” because of their immense biological diversity and economic value. While coral reefs are sensitive to changes in their environment such as altered temperature or pollution, some reefs are more resilient, or able to recover from disturbance more quickly, than others. The overarching objective of this project was to gather information on coral reef resilience and vulnerability to climate change that could inform coastal management decision-making in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI). Scientists collaborated with local managers to survey reefs at 78 locations throughout the CMNI and evaluate indicators of resilience, such as numbers of juvenile...
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Hawaiʻi’s native forests supply the state with freshwater, support cultural practices, and are home to more than 10,000 plants and animals found nowhere else in the world. However, they are also threatened by the spread of invasive species and may be vulnerable to shifting temperature and rainfall patterns brought about by climate change. Through this project, scientists sought to better understand how native and non-native forests in Hawaiʻi will respond to climate change. Researchers used field data from two long-term monitoring sites in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park to model the effects of projected climate change on two forest ecosystems, one dominated by the native ʻōhiʻa tree and the other by the invasive...
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Maui’s threatened Haleakalā silversword forms the foundation of a diverse high-elevation community on Haleakalā, and is an ideal species for assessing how this ecosystem is responding to climate change. The silversword’s striking appearance makes it one of Hawaiʻi’s most recognizable species, and it is one of the main attractions drawing 1-2 million tourists to Haleakalā National Park each year. The plant was once considered a conservation success, when active management led to a population recovery in the early 20th century. Unfortunately, silversword populations are now declining, and climate change – namely decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures – is thought to be responsible. The goal of this...
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Surrounded by saltwater, human and natural communities on the Hawaiian Islands depend upon the freshwater supplied by rainfall for survival. Climate change will likely alter rainfall timing and intensity, but global climate models cannot capture the fine-scale dynamics of local rainfall, making future rainfall predictions for the islands uncertain. For this project, scientists used a technique called statistical downscaling (combining coarse-scale climate models with local historical data) to generate high-resolution maps showing seasonal rainfall change projections for Hawaiʻi over the course of this century. Results suggest that Hawaiʻi’s climate will become drier overall in the second half of the century, but...
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The Hawaiian Islands are home to many people and host a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, but they are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced very high resolution climate projections for the Hawaiian islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i, providing information on key variables...
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Hawaiʻi is home to a rich diversity of native plants, about 90 percent of which are found nowhere else in the world. However, changing climate conditions may reduce the amount of suitable habitat for native plants and contribute to the spread of invasive plant species. The goal of this project was to better understand how Hawaiian native and invasive plants will respond to climate change. Scientists focused on 10 important native and five important invasive plant species, using over 35 years of data from thousands of locations in Hawai‘i to assess the plants’ preferred climate conditions and model their likely best future habitat based on climate change projections. The resulting maps and findings provide an initial...
    map background search result map search result map Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Understanding the Response of Native and Non‐Native Forests to Climate Variability and Change Valuing Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reef Ecosystem Services Very High Resolution Climate Projections for the Islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Very High Resolution Climate Projections for the Islands of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Understanding the Response of Native and Non‐Native Forests to Climate Variability and Change Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa