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Freshwater is a critical driver for island ecosystems. In Hawaiʻi, though rainfall intensity has increased, total rainfall has been on the decline for the last two decades and, as a result, streamflow has also been reduced. The changes in dynamic patterns of streamflow could result in impacts to river, estuarine, and coastal habitats. In turn, these changes also affect the nine native Hawaiian aquatic species found in these habitats at different stages of their amphidromous life cycle (in which they migrate from fresh to salt water or vice versa). To examine how changes in streamflow regime have impacted habitat quality for native migratory aquatic species, an ongoing project has been examining statewide long-term...
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Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves provide an effective first line of defense against coastal hazards and represent a promising nature-based solution to adapt to sea-level rise. In many areas, coral reefs cause waves to break and lose energy, allowing for sediment to accumulate on the inshore portion of reef flats (i.e. the shallowest, flattest part of a reef) and mangroves to establish. Mangroves cause further attenuation (i.e. energy loss) waves and storm surge as water moves through roots and trunks of the trees. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable protection from coastal flooding, but is unclear how this protection may be affected by sea-level rise. An assessment of future sea-level rise vulnerability...
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Agriculture and agroforestry (tree cultivation) are important activities for the Marshall Islands and other small islands to ensure food security and human health. The Marshallese have a long tradition of interplanting food-producing trees such as coconuts, breadfruit, and pandanus with bananas and root and vegetable crops. Locally grown food crops support community self-sufficiency, promote good nutrition, and can also serve as windbreaks and stabilize shorelines to lessen storm damage and erosion. However, climate change is posing serious challenges for growers, as they struggle to adapt to climate impacts including saltwater intrusion, changing precipitation and temperature patterns, and the spread of invasive...
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The conditions of coral reefs in the Hawaiian Islands are predicted to decline significantly from climate change over the next 100 years. To better prepare for the impacts of climate change on Hawaiian reefs, the research team uses a system of models to simulate ocean waves and circulation, rainfall and storm run-off, and coral reef community dynamics through the year 2100. These models will identify reef areas that are either vulnerable or resilient to the many stressors that the future may hold for reefs. The team’s hope is that this work can identify areas that might benefit from management actions to minimize local stressors such as land-based pollution. Through a collaborative partnership with state and federal...
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Loko iʻa, Hawaiian fishponds, are part of a rich history of indigenous aquaculture dating back to the 1400s. These unique ecosystems serve as key models of food sustainability across Hawaiʻi and the Pacific region. Hawaiʻi, among the most geographically isolated regions throughout the world, currently faces many challenges including environmental uncertainties, increasing urbanization, a growing population, and a dangerously high dependence on imports. Coupled with climate change, these challenges highlight the urgent need to develop a more sustainable and resilient Hawaiʻi. The overall goal of this project is to apply cutting-edge science tools and approaches to help kia‘i loko, fishpond stewards, enhance the...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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The Hawai‘i Drought Knowledge Exchange project has been successfully piloting three sets of formal collaborative knowledge exchanges between researchers and managers to co-produce customized, site specific drought data products to meet the needs of their partners. Through these pilots, knowledge co-production has demonstrated how active collaboration between researchers and managers in the design and production of data products can lead to more useful and accessible applications for drought planning and management. Resource managers have strongly embraced the need for better and more timely information on climate change, variability and drought, as these stressors exert a large and costly impact on resources...
Abstract: To design effective marine reserves and support fisheries, more information on fishing patterns and impacts for targeted species is needed, as well as better understanding of their key habitats. However, fishing impacts vary geographically and are difficult to disentangle from other factors that influence targeted fish distributions. We developed a set of fishing effort and habitat layers at high resolution and employed machine learning techniques to create regional‐scale seascape models and predictive maps of biomass and body length of targeted reef fishes for the main Hawaiian Islands. Spatial patterns of fishing effort were shown to be highly variable and seascape models indicated a low threshold beyond...
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This dataset is a list of variables (in columns) corresponding to nodes in a categorical network model. Geographic variables vary according to the specific climate downscaling model used to project plant species range into the future. Continuous variables were discretized into two to five categories as required by the model, usually based on quantiles of distribution.
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ArcGIS layer package of relative classifications (low to high) for six resilience indicators and two anthropogenic stressors and a map of final relative resilience scores for 78 sites in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The six resilience indicators are: bleaching resistance, coral diversity, coral recruitment, herbivore biomass, macroalgae cover and temperature variability. The two anthropogenic stressors are fishing access and nutrients and sediments. The resilience score map compares sites across all four of the surveyed islands: Saipan, Tinian, Aguijan, and Rota.
This study aims to clarify the extent to which Marshallese people are already migrating because of climate change, and the role affected ecosystem services play in their migration decisions. The research also aims to better understand the effects of this migration on migrants themselves, among communities in the RMI (in the capital of Majuro, and on Mejit and Maleolap), and in destination states (Hawai‘i, Oregon, and Washington). Finally, the research provides an analysis of shared views found within Marshallese perceptions on these subjects, which allows for a more fulsome assessment of the current state of well-being for Marshallese migrants, contributes to a more informed discussion regarding whether migration...
This website provides access to a broad range of information related to seasonal climate variability in the Republic of the Marshall Isalnds. It includes a quick-look at current and future conditions for a range of climate indicators, direct access to more detailed outlook-related information from stations and statellites, and products that place this information in a histrorical context. It also includes links to addtional sources of information.
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Small Pacific islands are especially vulnerable to climate change. Challenges these coastal communities face include sea level rise, erosion, saltwater intrusion, flooding, droughts, and coral bleaching which in turn affect food and water security, infrastructure, and the health of humans and ecosystems. These small islands also have limited resources; therefore, managing them effectively is important to ensure sustainable communities and healthy environments. To support natural resource management, accurate, detailed, up-to-date geospatial data and products are vital to help monitor these resources, identify potential threats, and reveal potential solutions. Through this project, the University of Guam (UoG)...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13005/abstract): Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline...
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems".
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Hala is a much-loved plant by Native Hawaiian cultural practitioners and lauhala weavers, yet native coastal forests of hala are now considered rare in Hawaiʻi. Research on climate resilience indicates that hala has the potential to mitigate storm surges and act as a barrier between salt spray and crops growing near the shoreline. To provide opportunities for natural and cultural resource managers and practitioners on Hawaiʻi Island, more information is needed about hala’s species diversity distribution, role in ecosystems, and ongoing preservation efforts across the island, as well as hala’s historical and current uses as food, medicine, natural fibers and oils. This project will bring together experts within...
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Hawaiʻi and the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands face unique challenges in adapting to climate change due to geographic isolation, coastal hazards, close cultural and economic links natural resources, and underserved populations. To address these problems, the PI-CASC works to develop actionable research products through collaborative engagement with cultural and natural resource manager to ensure applicability of the research. In efforts to further support these co-production processes, the PI-CASC Management Climate Corps was developed to connect local natural resource managers, researchers, cultural practitioners, policy professionals, community leaders, and graduate students on Hawaiʻi Islands. The...
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This project was designed to use climate models to produce projections of changes in sea temperatures and ocean chemistry for coastal marine areas in Micronesia as well as reports that describe the outlook of culturally important marine sites in Guam and CNMI. The projections and maps were expected show what the current state of climate science suggests the future holds for marine areas in Micronesia if we continue to use fossil fuels aggressively. These projections of sea conditions will become the foundation of outlook reports for Tumon Bay in Guam, Lao Lao Bay and Saipan Lagoon in Saipan, and northern Tinian Island. The selected areas are among the most important sites for recreation in Guam and CNMI and, as...
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Surrounded by saltwater, Hawaiian communities depend on freshwater streams for consumption, irrigation, traditional Hawaiian practices, and habitat for native fish and other stream life. It is important to be able to predict how Hawaiʻi’s streams will be affected by changing rainfall patterns to enable sustainable management of critical freshwater resources. However, to date, limited data and the uncertain effects of climate change have hindered predictions of future streamflow. Through this project, scientists developed a model that provides a way to estimate future stream low flow (streamflow during a period of prolonged dryness) by categorizing streams based on their physical characteristics. While the model...
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The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) spreads over 29 atolls and has a population of over 50,000 people; over 27,000 of those people live on the Majuro Atoll, RMI’s capital. Sea level rise threatens the very existence of RMI as high-end projections of sea level rise by the end of the century exceed the average elevation of these low atoll reef islands. Already, waves wash over Majuro during “king tides” when strong winds blow from the west across the broad lagoon, or when there are high open ocean waves. Flooding waves breach island shores in multiple locations and wash into homes, cemeteries, across roads, and into commercial districts. Over the past decade, there has been a widespread exodus of residents...
map background search result map search result map Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Modeling the Response of Hawaiʻi’s Streams to Future Rainfall Conditions Developing an Agroforestry Dashboard for the Marshall Islands Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in CNMI results Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI Merged traits used to fit the Hawaiian native plant vulnerability model Building Capacity for Coordination of Strategic Science Research in the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Scaling up the Hawai‘i Drought Knowledge Exchange: Expanding Stakeholder Reach and Capacity to Address Climate Change, Variability, and Drought Connecting Ecosystems from Mountains to the Sea in a Changing Climate Increasing Climate Extension in the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality and Fish Recruitment in Native Hawaiian Fishponds Lauhala: Weaving Knowledges and Practices with a Climate Resilient and Culturally Significant Plant on Hawaiʻi Island Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality and Fish Recruitment in Native Hawaiian Fishponds Lauhala: Weaving Knowledges and Practices with a Climate Resilient and Culturally Significant Plant on Hawaiʻi Island Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in CNMI results The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coral Reef and Mangrove Interactions and the Resulting Coastal Flooding Hazards Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Modeling the Response of Hawaiʻi’s Streams to Future Rainfall Conditions Developing an Agroforestry Dashboard for the Marshall Islands Merged traits used to fit the Hawaiian native plant vulnerability model Scaling up the Hawai‘i Drought Knowledge Exchange: Expanding Stakeholder Reach and Capacity to Address Climate Change, Variability, and Drought Connecting Ecosystems from Mountains to the Sea in a Changing Climate Building Capacity for Coordination of Strategic Science Research in the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands Increasing Climate Extension in the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience