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Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant species’ habitats will change over the next hundred years in order to manage these resources effectively. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) where current managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitat in the future as climate changes. Expanding invasive species’ distributions under future climate conditions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective...
Episodic runoff carries suspended sediment to the nearshore, where it blocks light used for photosynthesis, smothers corals, inhibits coral recruitment, and triggers increases in macroalgae. Even small rainfalls create visible plumes over a few hours. Sediment affects coastal user enjoyment by deteriorating both ecosystem quality and visibility. Sources of erosion include unimproved roads, fallow and active agricultural fields, disturbed forests, local development, and streambanks. In this project, USGS used mapping, field experiments and monitoring, and analysis of recent (July 19–20, 2014) and historic rainfall to estimate sources of land-based pollution for watersheds in West Maui, Hawaii. USGS constructed an...
While the iconic Haleakalā silversword plant made a strong recovery from early 20th-century threats, it has now entered a period of substantial climate-related decline. New research published this week warns that global warming may have severe consequences for the silversword in its native habitat.
User’s guide for downloading and using the One Meter Topobathymetric Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands.
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
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The Hawaiian Islands are home to some of the world’s most culturally valuable but imperiled forest birds, including brightly colored native honeycreepers, many of which are threatened or endangered. One of the major threats these birds face is avian malaria, which is spread by a species of introduced mosquito and can have death rates exceeding 90 percent. For decades, upper mountain forests have provided refuge for Hawaiian forest birds because mosquitoes (and thus the disease) could not survive the cooler temperatures. However, warming associated with climate change could change this. Scientists used climate data and an epidemiological model to evaluate the future impacts of avian malaria on Hawaiian forest birds...
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As one of the lowest-lying island nation-states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is acutely vulnerable to sea-level rise, flooding, and the associated intrusion of saltwater into crucial freshwater supplies. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production in the RMI. Many Marshallese communities are already experiencing these changes and are migrating to larger islands within the RMI and to other countries like the U.S. to, among other things, seek alternative means of making a living and access healthcare. The number of Marshallese residing in the U.S. has rapidly risen over the past two decades, from 7,000 in 2000 to 22,000 in 2010. There is also substantial internal migration,...
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The threat of rising sea levels to island communities is well known. However, sea-level rise projections are often depicted in ways that are not intuitive or directly applicable to community members and resource managers who most need the information. Scientific information about sea-level rise needs to be presented in a way that effectively communicates the very real risk posed to coastal communities, infrastructure, and cultural assets. This project builds upon data developed through previous USGS Pacific Islands CASC work. It goes beyond simple sea-level rise visualizations and leverages the ever-growing computational power of modern smart devices to provide interactive and immersive outreach materials through...
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Moloka‘i has great wetland restoration potential in Hawaiʻi, but most remaining sites are highly degraded. The future of several endangered waterbirds and insects relies on restoring coastal wetland habitat that is resilient under sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Currently, managers lack background data on Molokaʻi to prioritize sites for restoration. In this project, Researchers will develop a comprehensive dataset and create a prioritization plan for coastal wetland restoration. The team will work closely with project partners and stakeholders to develop a well-vetted plan to support endangered species and meeting community needs. Existing maps and spatial data about the Molokaʻi landscape will be compiled...
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Hawai‘i’s isolation, paired with limited water resources, make the archipelago sensitive to reductions in water availability. Drought can take different forms, varying across Island geographies with respect to frequency, intensity, duration, and extent. A drought event can exert hydrological, agricultural, ecological, and socio-economic impacts – and these impacts have been growing over the past century as droughts have become more frequent and severe. While the impacts of drought in Hawai‘i have been recently documented, important gaps remain in understanding these dynamics when engaging with multiple other stressors such as invasive species, shifting fire and climate patterns, pests, and pathogens. In particular,...
The climate impact summaries will be 1 page for each of Guam and CNMI. These reports are called 'Past and Projected Future Climate Impacts to Guam/CNMI'. A poster describes the past and projected future climate impacts to coral reefs in all of the U.S. coral reef jurisdictions (Guam, CNMI, American Samoa, Hawaii, Florida, Puerto Rico and USVI) and the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary.
Project researchers are measuring impacts of sea level variability on coastal reefs and communities. Researchers will relate Pacific climate extremes to local impacts, such as coastal flooding, that matter to residents and resource managers inundation by waves. This handout gives a quick overview of the project methods.
Abstract (from AMS100): Spatially continuous data products are essential for a number of applications including climate and hydrologic modeling, weather prediction, and water resource management. In this work, a distance-weighted interpolation method used to map daily rainfall and temperature in Hawaii is described and assessed. New high-resolution (250 m) maps were developed for daily rainfall and daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) near-surface air temperature for the period 1990–2014. Maps were produced using climatologically aided interpolation, in which station anomalies were interpolated using an optimized inverse distance weighting approach and then combined with long-term means to produce daily gridded...
Local stakeholders are stewards of their own coastal communities, aware of changes both socially and physically that occur in the seascape. How the landscape changes has implications for local cultural values and beliefs. To gain a better understanding of how communities change over time socially and physically, we conducted semi-structured interviews with surfers who are known as experts in the surf spot of Honoli'i Bay located in Hilo, Hawaii. Interview methods included diagrams, open-ended questions, and photographs. Within the community, we interviewed 12 surfers considered to be local experts on surf conditions to ask about their observations. The expert surfers provided a better understanding of (1) great,...
A database of plant species, location, species abundance, and plot dimensions.
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The following files contain source data for use of the Community Land Model 4.0 at two study sites in Volcanoes National Park, Hawai'i. Included are: Biometric data: 1) Growth increment data for Thurston and Olaa, based on dbh surveys done in four 10 m by 10 m plots at over a 12 year time period at Thurston and at six plots overs a 12 year period at Olaa, 2) Field measured leaf area index data. Measurements were made using LAI-2000 and LAI-2200 instruments, 3) Litterfall from Thurston and Olaa over a 17-mo period from June 2014 to Sep 2015. Data were sorted by species/litter type. Data are weights., 4) Field measured soil respiration data scaled to annual values and compared with tower-based measurements of ecosystem...
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Maps of relative classifications (low to high) for six resilience indicators and two anthropogenic stressors and a map of final relative resilience scores for 78 sites in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The six resilience indicators are: bleaching resistance, coral diversity, coral recruitment, herbivore biomass, macroalgae cover and temperature variability. The two anthropogenic stressors are fishing access and nutrients and sediments. The resilience score map compares sites across all four of the surveyed islands: Saipan, Tinian, Aguijan, and Rota.
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In the expectation that global climate will change steadily in the coming decades, this research project had the goal to obtain a more detailed view of the climatic changes that Hawai’i could experience by the mid and late 21st century. Given the importance of rainfall for Hawaiian ecosystems and freshwater reserves, this project investigated past seasonal rainfall pattern and developed a statistical model to estimate future rainfall changes for the major islands. As a result of this research, high-resolution maps and data are now available that researchers can use to study potential impacts on endangered species, or use the rainfall changes as input in decision-support tools.This data product provides data files...
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This folder contains 2 excel files with data from a household questionnaire survey (N=79) conducted for the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration project. The fieldwork took place in Hawaii (July-August 2017) and the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington, October-November 2017) . Besides the excel files (one for Hawaii and one for the Pacific Northwest), the folder also contains the original questionnaire in PDF format. The questionniare looked at livelihood, perceptions of climate change and ecosystem services and migration behaviour.
Climate change is expected to cause many plant and animal species to migrate, and others to decline or go extinct if they can’t move sufficiently to keep up with changing conditions. Mountain-top species are thought to be especially vulnerable because they have limited potential to make such shifts. The Haleakala silversword, also known as ahinahina, occurs near the top of Haleakala volcano on the island of Maui, Hawaii, and is an ideal species with which to investigate plant responses to changing climate conditions. Long-term monitoring data allowed us to determine that the population has undergone a decline of approximately 60% in recent decades, and that this has corresponded to drier conditions that have developed...
map background search result map search result map 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change Resilience Indicator Summaries and Resilience Scores CNMI Excel database Datasets for "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach" Understanding the Effect of Climate Change on the Migration of Marshallese Islanders Observed ecological inputs to the Community Land Model at two wet montane study sites, 2004-2016, Volcanoes National Park, Hawai'i US Questionnaire data of the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project Visualizing Sea-level Rise at Puʻuhonua O Hōnaunau National Historic Park with Interactive, Virtual Technology (A Prototype Augmented-Reality Mobile-Phone Application) Malo‘o ka lani, wela ka honua (When the sky is dry, the earth is parched): Investigating the Cultural Dimensions of Indigenous Local Knowledge Responses to Changing Climate Conditions A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i Visualizing Sea-level Rise at Puʻuhonua O Hōnaunau National Historic Park with Interactive, Virtual Technology (A Prototype Augmented-Reality Mobile-Phone Application) Observed ecological inputs to the Community Land Model at two wet montane study sites, 2004-2016, Volcanoes National Park, Hawai'i Vulnerability of Hawaiian Forest Birds to Climate Change A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i US Questionnaire data of the Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project Resilience Indicator Summaries and Resilience Scores CNMI Excel database Datasets for "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach" Understanding the Effect of Climate Change on the Migration of Marshallese Islanders Malo‘o ka lani, wela ka honua (When the sky is dry, the earth is parched): Investigating the Cultural Dimensions of Indigenous Local Knowledge Responses to Changing Climate Conditions 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa