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Coral reef ecosystems are exposed to a diverse suite of environmental forcing. Waves, wind, currents, temperature, irradiance, salinity, nutrients, turbidity, aragonite saturation state, and planktonic productivity each influence coral reefs to varying degrees, fluctuating on daily, seasonal and interannual time scales and across spatial scales spanning reefs, islands and archipelagos [1-3]. Environmental forcing is highly influential to reef ecosystem process and function, including coral reef extent and growth rates and the abundance, diversity, and morphology of reef organisms [1, 4]. Through time, coral reef ecosystems have adapted to exist within a particular climatological setting; a finite range in long-term...
XML document specifying the categorical network model used to estimate relative vulnerability to climate change. Viewable in teh GeNiE graphical interface to the S.M.I.L.E. network learning software package.
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This raster indicates modeled habitat for various species under current and future conditions. Using the Price et al. (2012) parameters, we modeled species ranges as a function of elevation, temperature, and precipitation as described in Jacobi et al. (2016). Our methods departed slightly from their procedure in that we did not exclude non-pioneer-classified species from young lava flows. Jacobi, J.J., Camp, R.J., Berkowitz, S.P., Brinck, K.W., Fortini, L.B., Price, J.P., and Loh, R.M. 2016. Assess the potential impacts of projected climate change on vegetation management strategies within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. PICSC Final Report. URL: https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/ Price, J.P., Jacobi, J.D., Gon, S.M., III,...
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This project will develop first-ever maps of ecosystem types (landcover) for the Mariana Islands. Native and alien plant communities will be classified and delineated using high-resolution satellite imagery, data from ground surveys, and new surveys where needed to ground-truth the classification. This effort will inform prioritization of conservation actions and will allow projection of future vegetation changes with climate change
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Islands exhibit the planet’s most unique flora and fauna, but biodiversity on islands is also vulnerable to the impending forces of global change. The Micronesian high island of Pohnpei exemplifies the diversity of oceanic islands, as it is home to the world lowest montane-cloud forest, vast mangrove forests, and 6 endemic bird species. We conducted a survey to assess the status of Pohnpei’s current bird population. We estimated detection rates across elevation zones, habitat-specific occupancy rates for 13 species, and habitat specific densities for 10 species. We coupled results with data from previous surveys to assess the potential impacts of vegetation change on Pohnpei avifauna during the last three decades....
The Pacific Island Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC) Climate Change Adaptation Video Series are a series of video created in close coordination with the PICCC profiling case studies of climate change adaptation as conducted by conservationists in Hawaiʻi. The videos are necessary in order to help educate, inform, and inspire the general public, peers, and potential conservation managers. The goals and objectives of the videos are to be engaging, exciting, and candid.
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Expansion of deadly, mosquito-borne bird diseases such as avian malaria into Hawaiʽi’s high elevation forests as a result of global warming is one of the most significant threats facing the state’s rare native forest birds. Few practical options for control of disease-carrying mosquitoes over large landscapes are available, however. The best hope for remaining species of native birds may be the development of tolerance or resistance to this introduced disease. Therefore, understanding how tolerance and resistance evolve and developing ways to speed this process may be good proactive strategies for addressing impacts of climate change. We evaluated ways to rapidly measure a bird’s natural immunity with the hope that...
For many species the threats of climate change occur in a context of multiple existing threats. Given the current focus of global change ecology in identifying and understanding species vulnerable to climate change, we performed a global analysis to characterize the multi-threat context for species threatened by climate change. Utilizing 30,053 species from the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, we sought to evaluate if species threatened by climate change are more likely threatened by a greater number of non-climatic threats than species not threatened by climate change. Our results show that species threatened by climate change are generally impacted by 21%...
Climate change is the most pressing societal challenge of our time, with projected changes likely to result in cascading impacts to species, ecosystems, and ecosystem services. These impacts will exacerbate current resource challenges for the Hawaiian Islands, such as conflict over water resources, land use and degradation, and invasive species. Resource managers and conservation planners are addressing this challenge by revising current plans and practices with increased attention on potential climate impacts to natural resources, communities, and socioeconomic values to better meet long-term goals. We propose to support resource managers and planners of the main Hawaiian Islands in meeting this challenge by developing...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
The objective of this project is to identify areas where herbivore management interventions would be the most effective in promoting coral reef recovery and resiliency following the recent coral bleaching. When a bleaching event occurs, as Hawaii experienced in 2014 and 2015, the results can be regime shifts or reef decline. Decline can be permanent or temporary, depending on its resilience. There is an urgent need to develop a process to increase the resiliency of Hawaii’s coral reefs through certain characteristics, including herbivory. Herbivory maintains open spaces, promotes remnant corals to recover, and allows new coral to settle in disturbed areas. We will operationalize this concept by 1) integrating Marxan...
Besides coral, Hawaiian forest birds are arguably one of the clearest examples of species vulnerable to climate change. A wealth of studies has recently detailed how both ongoing and projected warming allows for avian malaria to spread at higher elevation areas where most remaining native bird species persist. Temperature is a critical factor for the development of both the disease (Plasmodium relictum) and its vector (Culex quinquefasciatus). As such, their distribution and abundance across the landscape seem to vary across the landscape in response to changing monthly, seasonal and annual conditions. Standard and novel vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds from the...
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The specific objectives of this contract are to identify and categorize key differences and similarities between islands and continental systems that are relevant to achieving sustainable landscapes/seascapes at regional scales; to develop a conservation framework that integrates planning processes for both terrestrial and marine resources that is consistent with the LCC Network Vision and Mission, and that connects landscape conservation design efforts for islands and mainland LCCs and to develop LCD guidelines, definitions, and goals appropriate for islands that are consistent with the SIAS metrics for LCD.
The Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC) initiated the Hawaiian Islands Terrestrial Adaptation Initiative (HITAI) in FY2015 to ensure that the main Hawaiian Islands have plans and systems in place by 2019 to address expected impacts to island ecosystems, heritage sites and structures, and communities from climate change and other local environment changes. There are a number of conservation group stakeholders implicated in the development of the HITAI, and the fundamental purpose of the project presented here is to ensure that these conservation organizations are best equipped to work together efficiently and productively to carry out the HITAI. Because the stakes are high and the organizations varied...
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HaleNet, the climate network on Haleakalā, Maui, is unique in Hawai‘i for its coverage of highly diverse environments, range different climate variables monitored, high temporal resolution, and longterm record. As the record length has grown and climate change has begun to affect Hawai‘i, the value of maintaining and improving this vital network has increased. Support is needed to continue operation and maintenance, replace aging sensors, data loggers, communication equipment, and support structures, and conduct data management and analysis tasks. The overarching goal of this project is to ensure continued operation and maintenance of the HaleNet system, including field operations, equipment maintenance and replacement,...
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Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse...
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Traditional Ecological Knowledge, or TEK, is “a cumulative body of knowledge, practice and belief, evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission, about the relationships of living beings (including humans) with one another and with their environments.” With support from the PICCC, scientists at the University of Hawai’i Mānoa have undertaken research that is documenting baseline Traditional Ecological Knowledge for Ka’upulehu, in the north Kona region of Kekaha on Hawai‘i Island. This focused on biological and cultural resources most valued by the community, the challenges they face, and potential coping mechanisms. Through a series of workshops, investigators partnered...
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One of the impacts of global climate change for the Hawaiian Islands is a projected increase in sea level of about one meter by the year 2100. This change will impact both biological and cultural resources located along the coastline. Few intact native coastal and lowland plant communities remain in Hawai’i. Many of those that remain contain listed endangered species and provide important habitat for other species such as seabirds, shorebirds, and native invertebrates. Where upslope habitats are available, some coastal plant communities may be able to migrate in response to sea level rise. However, in sites that have no upslope opportunities due to habitat modification by human development, the species and communities...
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Human effects on the global climate system, principally through changing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, are expected to lead to significant warming and other associated changes in the climate worldwide. Human-induced climate changes are likely already observable in quantities such as the global mean temperature, and over the next century can be expected to include significant effects on the local environment in Hawaii and other Pacific Islands. The currently available climate change projections from global coupled atmosphere/ocean models, as summarized for example in the recent IPCC assessment reports, have very limited direct application to Hawaii or other Pacific islands,...
map background search result map search result map High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Oceanographic time series and climatologies for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment Learning from Traditional Ecological Knowledge to understand Climate Change Impacts and Preserve Key Cultural and Natural Resources in Ka'upulehu, Hawaii Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Impacts of sea level rise on native plant communities and associated cultural sites in coastal areas of the main Hawaiian Islands Landcover mapping in the Mariana Islands as a baseline for evaluating future climate change effects Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Modeled ranges of Hawaiian plant species under current and future conditions under three climate downscaling scenarios Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation Learning from Traditional Ecological Knowledge to understand Climate Change Impacts and Preserve Key Cultural and Natural Resources in Ka'upulehu, Hawaii Landcover mapping in the Mariana Islands as a baseline for evaluating future climate change effects Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Impacts of sea level rise on native plant communities and associated cultural sites in coastal areas of the main Hawaiian Islands Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Modeled ranges of Hawaiian plant species under current and future conditions under three climate downscaling scenarios Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean Oceanographic time series and climatologies for the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment