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Monthly temperature and precipitation data from 41 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were compared to observations for the 20th century, with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and surrounding region. A suite of statistics, or metrics, was calculated, including correlation and variance of mean seasonal spatial patterns, amplitude of seasonal cycle, diurnal temperature range, annual- to decadal-scale variance, long-term persistence, and regional teleconnections to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Performance, or credibility, was assessed based on the GCMs' abilities to reproduce the observed metrics. GCMs were ranked in their credibility using two...
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0138759): Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063208/abstract): Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using...
Abstract: Observed changes in climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest since the early twentieth century were examined using four different datasets. Annual mean temperature increased by approximately 0.6°–0.8°C from 1901 to 2012, with corroborating indicators including a lengthened freeze-free season, increased temperature of the coldest night of the year, and increased growing-season potential evapotranspiration. Seasonal temperature trends over shorter time scales (<50 yr) were variable. Despite increased warming rates in most seasons over the last half century, nonsignificant cooling was observed during spring from 1980 to 2012. Observations show a long-term increase in spring precipitation; however, decreased...
The article discusses a report published by the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) that examined the technical feasibility of using wind energy for electricity generation. The report assessed the costs, impacts and challenges associated with the production of 20% wind energy by 2030. Results have shown that there is a need for an enhanced transmission infrastructure and an increase in turbine installations to achieve 20% wind energy.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Northwest, resources
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003865): Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 under vegetation modeling scenarios with and without fire suppression for a total of 80 model runs for future projections. For analysis, results were aggregated by three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW),...
To facilitate camera-based snow depth observations without additional equipment installation, we developed a novel method implemented in an R package called edger to superimpose virtual measurement devices onto images. The virtual snow stakes can be used to derive snow depth measurements. We validated the method for snow depth estimation using camera data from Latah County, Idaho, USA in winter 2020–2021. Physical snow stakes were installed in the camera viewshed with which snow depth measurements were taken. Then, virtual snow stakes were superimposed on the images using edger and images were cropped to exclude the physical snow stake so that the two snow depth measurements could be compared. This dataset contains...
The article discusses a report published by the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) that examined the technical feasibility of using wind energy for electricity generation. The report assessed the costs, impacts and challenges associated with the production of 20% wind energy by 2030. Results have shown that there is a need for an enhanced transmission infrastructure and an increase in turbine installations to achieve 20% wind energy.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Northwest, resources
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12642/abstract): Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression...
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We have defined resilience as a function of both a site’s diversity of topoclimates and the site’s ability to support species movement, or terrestrial landscape permeability. Here, we posit that topoclimates provide species localized refugia from the direct effects of a changing climate, whereas landscape permeability reflects the ability of the landscape mosaic to facilitate terrestrial species movement to and between topoclimates as they shift in response to their respective climatic envelopes.90 m topoclimate data, scaled from 0.2 – 1, were multiplied with terrestrial landscape permeability data, scaled from 0 – 1, to generate a resilience value for every 90 m cell across the project area. A full description...
Salmonids, a group of coldwater-adapted fishes of enormous ecological and socio-economic value, historically inhabited a variety of freshwater habitats throughout the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Over the past century, however, populations have dramatically declined due to habitat loss, overharvest, and invasive species. Consequently, many populations are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Complicating these stressors is global warming and associated climate change. Overall, aquatic ecosystems across the PNW are predicted to experience increasingly earlier snowmelt in the spring, reduced late spring and summer flows, increased winter flooding, warmer and drier summers, increased...
This update was provided to FWS on March 21, 2013. The assessment incorporates an evaluation of climate and non-climate threats, and potential interactions among them to evaluate potential bull trout persistence. In summary, it includes the following steps: 1) Map suitable habitat "patches" across the species' range in the conterminous United States; 2) Attribute patches with information on local and climate related threats; 3) Map and attribute migratory habitats for the species and their relationship to "patches;" and 4) model persistence of bull trout in relation to local and climate related threats in patches and migratory habitats. For more information, contact Jason Dunham, U.S. Geological Survey, Forest...
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Wetlands in the remote mountains of the western US have undergone two massive ecological “experiments” spanning the 20th century. Beginning in the late 1800s and expanding after World War II, fish and wildlife managers intentionally introduced millions of predatory trout (primarily Oncorhynchus spp) into fishless mountain ponds and lakes across the western states. These new top predators, which now occupy 95% of large mountain lakes, have limited the habitat distributions of native frogs, salamanders, and wetland invertebrates to smaller, more ephemeral ponds where trout do not survive. Now a second “experiment” – anthropogenic climate change – threatens to eliminate many of these ephemeral habitats and shorten...
    map background search result map search result map Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US - Journal Article Terrestrial Landscape Resilience to Climate Change (90 m) Validation of the "edger" Virtual Snow Stake Validation of the "edger" Virtual Snow Stake Amphibians in the climate vise: loss and restoration of resilience of montane wetland ecosystems in the western US - Journal Article Terrestrial Landscape Resilience to Climate Change (90 m)