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The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project integrated existing models of vegetation, disturbance, and permafrost into one complete ecosystem model for the state of Alaska and Northwest Canada.The final synchronized model will integrate existing climate, vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost models to improve understanding of potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change. The project’s (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016) primary goal was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada....
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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
TheNorthSlopeofAlaskaliesonthenorthsideofBrooksRangeandincludesextensivecoastlinesalongtheChukchiSeaandBeaufortSea.TheseshorelinesarefundamentallydifferentfrommostofthecoastlineintheUSastheyareconsolidatedbypermafrostandsubjecttoperiglacialprocesses,includingcryogenicprocessesonshoreandnearshoreseasonalpackiceformation.ThesecoastsarehighlydynamicandundergoingsomeofthefastestretreatratesinNorthAmerica(GibbsandRichmondn.d.).Proposedoffshoreoildevelopmentactivitiesinthe ChukchiSeacoastandexistingoffshoredrillingislandsalongtheBeaufortSeacoastposeenvironmentalrisksforthesecoasts.Environmentalconcernsincludeincreasedairandseatraffic,accidentaloilspills,andpotentialportdevelopments.BOEMrequiresup-­‐to-­‐date,digitalmappingthatcanbeusedtosystematicallyassesstheseenvironmentalrisks.TheSh...
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The Anaktuvuk River Fire was the largest, highest-severity wildfire recorded on Alaska’s North Slope since records began in 1956. The 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire was an order of magnitude larger than the average fire size in the historic record for northern Alaska and indices of severity were substantially higher than for other recorded tundra burns. An interdisciplinary team assessed fire effects including burn severity, potential plant community shifts, and effects on permafrost and active layers. Observers monumented, photographed, and measured 24 burned and 17 unburned reference transects, starting the year after the fire, and spanning the range of vegetation types and burn severities.
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LCC funding allowed completion of this BLM initiative to develop a North Slope-wide cover type map and create a crosswalk that integrates all component cover type maps that comprise the larger overall North Slope cover type map.This map is the outcome of a multi-year project to produce a moderate resolution landcover base map for the North Slope of Alaska to serve as a primary base layer for long-term science and planning activities on the North Slope. New Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) 30 meter resolution landcover maps were produced for the far western arctic, and for the area between the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska (NPRA) and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. In the NPRA, an existing land cover map from...
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Arey Lagoon and Island, situated on the Beaufort Sea coast just west of Barter Island and within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), was selected as a focus site for an in-depth study of coastal processes on a regional to local scale. Arey Lagoon and adjacent areas encompass a barrier island chain, a glacially fed river and delta (Hulahula and Ogpilak Rivers) from the Brooks Range watershed, low-lying tundra with coastal wet sedge, and thermokarst lakes that all may be vulnerable to the effects of changing storm patterns in response to climate change.Analysis of historical maps and imagery showed that Arey Lagoon mainland coast, partially protected by Arey Island from the direct attack of ocean waves, was...
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To elucidate these potential “bottom up” effects of climate changes to Arctic ungulates and evaluate the trophic mismatch hypothesis, the Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Teck, Inc., and the National Park Service provided funding in 2012-14 to incorporate the calving and summer range of the Western Arctic caribou herd (WAH) into an ongoing inter-agency research and monitoring effort to examine the influences of climate change on the nutrient dynamics of caribou forages. This work is leveraging existing projects on the North Slope of Alaska that are primarily funded through the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative. Field...
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Our overarching questions are: (1) How much of the river water and water-borne constituents (i.e. sediment, nutrients, organic matter) from the Jago, Okpilak and Hulahula rivers are coming from glacier melt? (2) How do inputs from these rivers affect the downstream ecosystems? (3) How will loss of glaciers affect these ecosystems? The study will help elucidate how inputs from glacier-dominated arctic rivers differ from unglaciated rivers, through a combination of ground work, boat work, and remote sensing. In Phase One of this study, we intend to explore the relationship between glaciers and coastal ecosystems. Our goal in this phase-one study is not to answer these questions conclusively but rather improve our...
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Using a bioclimatic envelope approach, University of Alberta investigators project how the distribution and abundance of boreal forest birds across North America will respond to different scenarios of future climate-change. Investigation emphasis is on mapping and quantifying potential range expansions of boreal bird species into Arctic and subarctic regions across Alaska and Canada. The final products demonstrate a broad continental-scale overview of potential shifts in avian distribution.
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This project provides a better understanding how linkages among surface-water availability, connectivity, and temperature mediate habitat and trophic dynamics of the Fish Creek Watershed (FCW). These interrelated processes form a shifting mosaic of freshwater habitats across the landscape that can be classified, mapped, understood, and modeled in response to past and future climate and land-use change in a spatial and temporal context. Developing scenarios of freshwater habitat change in this context provides managers and scientists with a flexible template to evaluate a range of potential responses to climate and land-use change. Applying this approach in the FCW is made feasible because of the availability of...
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, All tags...
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We assessed change in the seasonal timing of insect emergence from tundra ponds near Barrow, Alaska over a four-decade timespan, and explored factors that regulate this significant ecological phenomenon. The early-summer pulse of adult insects emerging from myriad tundra ponds on the Arctic Coastal Plain is an annual event historically coincident with resource demand by tundra-nesting avian consumers. Asymmetrical changes in the seasonal timing of prey availability and consumer needs may impact arctic-breeding shorebirds, eiders, and passerines. We have found evidence of change in the thermal behavior of these arctic wetlands, along with a shift in the phenology of emerging pond insects. Relative to the 1970s, tundra...
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Natural resource managers and native communities have expressed a need for effectively synthesizing traditional knowledge and western science data. Often wildlife management plans are based on remotely sensed data and data collected by wildlife biologists. These data may not reflect the variables that are important to the local users, including the scale of information, names describing places or habitats, or how seasonality affects the wildlife available for harvest. The Inuvialuit of the Yukon North Slope have formed a Wildlife Advisory Council, a co-management body, comprised of federal, territorial, and Inuvialuit representatives, and they are working closely with researchers from the Round River Organization...
Lack of complete snow cover for the past 3 winters in southwestern Alaska has forced agencies to postpone moose surveys due to the likelihood of underestimating the population/lack of comparability to previous surveys. Poor snow conditions lower the sightability of moose, yet, for most regions of Alaska, the variation in moose sightability during suboptimal conditions has not yet been quantified. Because scientists are predicting less snowfall in this region over the long term, we initiated research to estimate sightability correction factors (SCF_c) using radiocollared animals to apply to abundance estimates obtained via the GeoSpatial Population Estimator (GSPE) method. The Project Goal is to develop a model that...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2016, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, CALIBRATION/VALIDATION, CALIBRATION/VALIDATION, All tags...
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Understanding snow conditions is key to developing a better understanding of hydrologic, biological, and ecosystem processes at work in northern Alaska. The required snow datasets currently do not exist at spatial or temporal scales needed by end users such as scientists, land managers, and policy makers. There are a wide variety of snow datasets that may be generated by this project. The list of desired datasets will be refined based on input from potential end users. However, outputs could include daily spatial distributions spanning the spatial and temporal domains of interest of the following variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, relative humidity, surface (skin) temperature, incoming solar radiation,...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: AIR TEMPERATURE, AIR TEMPERATURE, ALBEDO, ALBEDO, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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Widespread changes in lake distribution on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) would affect water availability for humans, fish and other water-dependent species. The Thermokarst Lake Drainage project models the drainage susceptibility of ACP lakes due to changes in permafrost conditions and surface hydrology along laks margins. The model can provide managers with a tool to assess the likelihood that an individual lake might drain. It also aims to predict the regions in which lake drainage may be most pronounced.More than 35,000 lakes larger than 0.01 km2 were extracted from an airborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) derived digital surface model acquired between 2002 and 2006 for the Western Arctic...
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This project used historical climate records for Alaska and Western Canada to identify patterns in temperature and precipitation reflecting the distribution of biomes seen across this region today. These climate-biome models used downscaled climate data to help identify areas which were most vulnerable to change, and areas of “refugia” where the temperature and precipitation conditions will be most similar to what they are today. The results may help managers, landscape planners, conservationists and others; understand how dramatically the temperature and precipitation patterns are expected to change.
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The primary goal of this project was to predict climate-related changes in the timing and duration of insect prey availability for arctic-breeding shorebirds. Researchers coordinated closely with the Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network, whose collaborators sampled aquatic insect emergence, terrestrial insect activity, and associated environmental data at sites across arctic Alaska and Canada. Using ASDN data, they developed mathematical models that relate the timing and duration of insect emergence and activity to accumulated temperature, weather, and other environmental variables. They used these models to predict future changes in the timing of arctic insect availability based on climate change projections....
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Shorebirds are among the most abundant and visible high-latitude vertebrates. Their ecology makes them particularly sensitive to climate change in the arctic. The current distribution of shorebirds on the Arctic Coastal Plain is poorly known because accurate data exist from just a few locations. The Arctic LCC has supported development of habitat selection models that combine bird survey data with remotely-sensed habitat maps to “fill in the gaps” where observations are sparse. In future phases, the distribution maps generated from these models could be ground-truthed and improved, and subsequently used as the basis from which to forecast future shorebird distribution for projected future climate scenarios.
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The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) initiated the development of an Arctic Coastal Impressions booklet and photographic exhibit. In the exhibit, there were dozens of spectacular photos of the Arctic coastline. The images were collected along 10,000 km (6,000 mi) of shoreline in Alaska during 2012 and 2013. Many of the images were selected for their artistic composition – sculpted shapes, mosaics of colors or juxtaposition of odd features. They also provide insight into how coastal landforms develop and the significance of these features within the broader Arctic ecosystem. Each image has a story to tell and interpretive materials will accompany the collection.
map background search result map search result map Modeling Barrier Island Lagoon System Response to Projected Arctic Warming Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Arctic Coastal Impressions Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Thermokarst lake drainage - vulnerability to climate change and prediction of future lake habitat distribution on the North Slope FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Yukon Slope Wildlife Management Plan SNOWDATA: Snow Datasets for Arctic Terrestrial Applications (Alaska Arctic LCC Distributed Snow Property Datasets) Development and Application of an Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska North Slope Coastal Imagery Initiative Changing Seasonality of Invertebrate Food Resources across the Arctic Coastal Plain Evaluating the 'Bottom Up' Effects of Changing Habitats: Climate Changes, Vegetative Phenology, and the Nutrient Dynamics of Ungulate Forages Modeling Shorebird Distribution on the North Slope Integrating studies of glacier dynamics and estuarine chemistry in the context of landscape change in the Arctic Refuge Predicting Future Potential Biomes for Alaska North Slope Land Cover Climate effects on Arctic Food Resources: Modeling the Timing and Duration of Aquatic Insect Emergence from Tundra Ponds Anaktuvuk River Fire Monitoring Modeling avifaunal responses to climate change in North America's boreal-Arctic transition zone Modeling Barrier Island Lagoon System Response to Projected Arctic Warming Anaktuvuk River Fire Monitoring Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Integrating studies of glacier dynamics and estuarine chemistry in the context of landscape change in the Arctic Refuge Changing Seasonality of Invertebrate Food Resources across the Arctic Coastal Plain FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Thermokarst lake drainage - vulnerability to climate change and prediction of future lake habitat distribution on the North Slope Evaluating the 'Bottom Up' Effects of Changing Habitats: Climate Changes, Vegetative Phenology, and the Nutrient Dynamics of Ungulate Forages Modeling Shorebird Distribution on the North Slope North Slope Land Cover North Slope Coastal Imagery Initiative Arctic Coastal Impressions Yukon Slope Wildlife Management Plan SNOWDATA: Snow Datasets for Arctic Terrestrial Applications (Alaska Arctic LCC Distributed Snow Property Datasets) Predicting Future Potential Biomes for Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Climate effects on Arctic Food Resources: Modeling the Timing and Duration of Aquatic Insect Emergence from Tundra Ponds Modeling avifaunal responses to climate change in North America's boreal-Arctic transition zone