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Sea level anomaly extremes impact tropical Pacific islands, often with too little warning to mitigate risks. By compiling monthly sea level anomaly predictions from multiple statistical and dynamical (coupled ocean-atmosphere) models, which are typically skillful out to at least 6 months in the tropical Pacific, improved future outlooks are achieved. We deliver an experimental real-time forecast of monthly mean sea level anomalies and information that can be used to reduce impacts associated with sea level extremes. This product provides an outlook of monthly sea level anomalies for the next one to two seasons. We combine sea level forecasts with astronomical tide predictions to provide more accurate predictions...
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Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are significantly impacting the terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems that communities rely on for food, water, recreation, and tourism. For example, changing weather patterns are leading to more frequent and severe extreme storms, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and heat waves. Communities in both regions have deep...
This Project Snapshot provides a brief summary overview of the project "Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI".
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Since the 1930s, Louisiana has lost approximately 1,900 mi2 of land due to coastal erosion, land subsidence, and sea-level rise exacerbated by climate change, putting Native American archaeological sites along Louisiana’s Gulf Coast in danger of being destroyed. These cultural resources are crucial sources of information and represent the unique heritage of coastal Louisiana. Federal and State agency resource managers, coastal communities, and regional stakeholders would benefit from up-to-date science-based information on these endangered cultural resources and on climate-informed management options. In partnership with the Chitimacha Tribe of Louisiana, a team of University archaeologists, climate scientists,...
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One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is the restoration of the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both the agricultural and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades flows into the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are...
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The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contribute to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Researchers demonstrated the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments for predicting uncertainty. A BN was used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN was used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response...
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In 2010, 39 percent of the U.S.population lived near the coast. This population is expected to increase by 8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Coastal regions are also home to species and habitats that provide critical services to humans, such as wetlands that buffer coasts from storms. Therefore, sea-level rise and the associated changes in coastlines challenge both human communities and ecosystems. Understanding which coastal lands will be vulnerable to sea-level rise is critical for policy makers, land-use planners, and coastal residents. Focusing on the coastal region from Virginia to Maine, researchers examined a range of different possible sea-level rise scenarios, combined with information on features of the coastal...
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Hill shades derived from NOAA 3 m coastal DEMs. Derived using Global Mapper (Blue Marble Software, Inc.). Sun position set to 45 degree azimuth, 45 degree altitude above the horizon relative to UTM projection of DEM data.
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The purpose of this study was to record nearshore current patterns as witnessed and experienced by ocean users living in the greater Hilo area of Hawai'i Island, Hawai'i. This study relied on ocean-expert knowledge gained from place-based first-hand work and lifestyle experience. The ocean-experts were categorized as fisher, paddler, sailor, surfers, or others. The interviews were collected during 2014-2015, with prototype interviews collected in 2009. During the interview the ocean-expert was asked to select the appropriate map scale for their area of expertise (1:5000, 1:20,000, 1:40,000, or 1:100,000) and to describe and draw the nearshore currents. Sixteen of the interviewees visually documented on hard copy...
Website intended for use by agricultural extension agents in the Marshall Islands. The website is also a "dashboard" insofar as it automatically updates displays of weather and climate information at least monthly, drawing from the "Marshall Islands Climate Outlook" (blue website) and National Weather Service ENSO Alert System. Multiple tabs lead to pages encompassing short, medium and long-term weather and climate information, and agroforestry recommendations varying by ENSO status. Extension summaries with text, figures and photos. Prepared in English with some translation into Marshallese. Specifically, best management practices (with specific recommendations), and case studies (to share information and experience...
Coral reefs are degrading on a global scale, and rates of reef-organism calcification are predicted to decline due to ocean warming and acidification. Systematic measurements of calcification over space and time are necessary to detect change resulting from environmental stressors. We established a network of calcification monitoring stations at four managed reefs along the outerFlorida Keys Reef Tract (FKRT) from Miami to the Dry Tortugas. Eighty colonies (in two sequential sets of 40) of the reef-building coral, Siderastrea siderea, were transplanted to fixed apparatus that allowed repetitive detachment for buoyant weighing every 6 months. Algal-recruitment tiles were also deployed during each weighing interval...
A North Carolina State University study in Climatic Change found little research exists on how to protect cultural resources like those at Cape Lookout National Seashore, a 56-acre site that includes historic buildings in addition to the iconic lighthouse and scenic beaches.
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12571/full): 1.Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. 2.Here we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on below-ground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plant-soil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the...
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
The goal of barrier island restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico is to restore barrier island morphology using sediment to support the functions and habitats the islands provide. Barrier island restoration typically involves placement of sediment either directly on the island footprint or within the littoral zone for system transport and distribution. The re-engineering of barrier islands presents numerous challenges and uncertainties associated with climate change induced hurricanes/storms and other dynamic components of the system such as sediment availability and erosional trends. The goal of this study was to use a collaborative SDM approach to develop two Bayesian decision network models (DMs) for restoration...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Today, cultural heritage planning and decision-making operate under considerable climate, political, and financial uncertainties and constraints. Consequently, decision-makers are often left making value-laden judgments of what to preserve, restore, and maintain in their best judgments, which can leave them open to criticism for not protecting the cultural resources most important to various and diverse stakeholder groups. Thus, a transparent and robust process to optimally maintain cultural heritage values for present and future generations is needed. We address this knowledge gap by developing a novel, transparent, and value-based measurement framework for assessing relative “historical...
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Information about these images can be found in the Final Report for Sea-level Rise Response Modeling for San Francisco Bay Estuary Tidal Marshes. Site-specific data are available by request. Contact: Dr. John Y. Takekawa, USGS Western Ecological Research Center, San Francisco Bay Estuary Field Station, 505 Azuar Dr. Vallejo, Calif. 94592, 707-562-2000
map background search result map search result map Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Beyond just sea level rise: incorporating climate into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Qualitatively Observed Nearshore Ocean Currents, 2014-15, Hilo, Hawai'i DEM Hillshade of Kauai Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate DEM Hillshade of Kauai Qualitatively Observed Nearshore Ocean Currents, 2014-15, Hilo, Hawai'i SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Understanding and Managing the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Loss on Native American Archaeological Sites in Coastal Louisiana Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Beyond just sea level rise: incorporating climate into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate