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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the average Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. Using a topographic-based soil classification method, the ground motions are amplified for soil type. The MMI values are the average of the MMI values obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model.
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A comparison of the 2017 USGS South America seismic hazard model and the 2010 USGS preliminary model was made to see how the models differ. The comparison was made as the ratio of PGA at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The ratio map is included here as a geo-referenced tiff (GeoTIFF). The gridded data for the 2017 PGA at 10% probability can be found here, while the gridded data for the 2010 PGA at 10% probability can be found in the zip archive that can be downloaded using a link on this page.
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A comparison of the 2017 USGS South America seismic hazard model and the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) model was made to see how the models differ. The comparison was made as the ratio of PGA at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The ratio map is included here as a geo-referenced tiff (GeoTIFF). The gridded data for the 2017 PGA at 10% probability can be found here, while the GSHAP data can be found here. Shedlock, K.M., Giardini, Domenico, Grünthal, Gottfried, and Zhang, Peizhan, 2000, The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazar Map, Sesimological Research Letters, 71, 679-686. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.71.6.679
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A seismic hazard model for South America, based on a smoothed (gridded) seismicity model, a subduction model, a crustal fault model, and a ground motion model, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. These models are combined to account for ground shaking from earthquakes on known faults as well as earthquakes on un-modeled faults. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for Modified Mercalli Intensity with a 50 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years. The maps and data were derived from PGA ground-motion conversions of Worden et al. (2012), and include soil amplification...
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the average Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. Using a topographic-based soil classification method, the ground motions are amplified for soil type. The MMI values are the average of the MMI values obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model.
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A seismic hazard model for South America, based on a smoothed (gridded) seismicity model, a subduction model, a crustal fault model, and a ground motion model, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. These models are combined to account for ground shaking from earthquakes on known faults as well as earthquakes on un-modeled faults. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for Modified Mercalli Intensity with a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years. The maps and data were derived from PGA ground-motion conversions of Worden et al. (2012), and include soil amplification...
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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A seismic hazard model for South America, based on a smoothed (gridded) seismicity model, a subduction model, a crustal fault model, and a ground motion model, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. These models are combined to account for ground shaking from earthquakes on known faults as well as earthquakes on un-modeled faults. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.1 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for Modified Mercalli Intensity with a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years. The maps and data were derived from PGA ground-motion conversions of Worden et al. (2012), and include soil amplification...
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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...


    map background search result map search result map Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Comparison with the 2010 USGS preliminary model Comparison with the 1999 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment (GSHAP) model Modified Mercalli Intensity, based on peak ground acceleration, with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years Modified Mercalli Intensity, based on peak ground acceleration, with a 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years Modified Mercalli Intensity, based on peak ground acceleration, with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States Comparison with the 2010 USGS preliminary model Comparison with the 1999 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment (GSHAP) model Modified Mercalli Intensity, based on peak ground acceleration, with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years Modified Mercalli Intensity, based on peak ground acceleration, with a 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years Modified Mercalli Intensity, based on peak ground acceleration, with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years