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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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We are seeking to better understand networks among resource managers with respect to developing plans for climate change adaptation. We are pursuing this through a network analysis based on a survey of federal resource management staff and scientists in the southwestern and Midwestern U.S. Originally planned, this study was conceived to cover the Southwest and North Central Climate Science Centers, as defined by the USGS. In practice, surveys are most easily distributed within regions as defined by the federal resource agencies. Unfortunately, there is no uniform set of regions. We have tried to be comprehensive in our survey and cover at least the North Central and Southwestern Region.
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The Pueblo de San Ildefonso is facing increased wildfire risk under climate change. Recent fires have not only burned culturally significant sites, but they have also resulted in a loss of watershed runoff retention, which has increased erosion and the transport of contaminated sediments and soils on Pueblo lands from the adjacent Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A priority for the Pueblo is to ensure that wildfires are managed appropriately and, when large fires do occur, that effective measures are taken to control the aftermath of increased flooding and erosion. This project will build on the knowledge of elders and the community to develop a study plan (or study method) to evaluate different landscape...
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The goal of this project was to examine how temperature and precipitation could change by the mid 21st century over the greater Los Angeles region. Major findings for temperature are: (1) large variability in the magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model projections over LA, but all predict warming; (2) warming is smaller over the ocean and coastal zone, but larger in the mountain areas and inland; (3) ensemble mean warming in all parts of the domain is significantly outside the range of historical variability, meaning the change will be detectable. Major findings for precipitation are: (1) large variability in both sign and magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model precipitation projections...
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High-frequency observations of surface water at fine spatial scales are critical to effectively manage aquatic habitat, flood risk and water quality. We developed inundation algorithms for Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 across 12 sites within the conterminous United States (CONUS) covering >536,000 km2 and representing diverse hydrologic and vegetation landscapes. These algorithms were trained on data from 13,412 points spread throughout the 12 sites. Each scene in the 5-year (2017-2021) time series was classified into open water, vegetated water, and non-water at 20 m resolution using variables not only from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, but also variables derived from topographic and weather datasets. The Sentinel-1 model...
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California is a world biodiversity hotspot, and also home to hundreds of sensitive, threatened, and endangered species. One of the most vulnerable ecosystems in California is the “sky island” montane forests of southern California, forests of conifers and hardwoods located only in high-elevation mountain regions. Montane forests serve many important ecosystem functions, including protecting the upper watersheds of all the major rivers in Southern California. Yet human use, invasive species, droughts, fires, and now climate change are increasingly threatening the sensitive ecosystem. A major obstacle to the sustainability of montane forests in southern California is the absence of a coordinated strategic conservation...
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The complex mountain and valley chains of the Southwest exert a strong influence on precipitation and wind patterns. Atmospheric rivers deliver some of the most extreme precipitation events to west-southwest-facing slopes of the mountains where strong gusty downslope winds can also spread wildfires. Climate change is making the southwest warmer and dryer resulting in more fire-prone vegetation and more frequent and extreme atmospheric rivers. Understanding this changing system is critical for managing water resources and wildfire in the region. This project will study how climate change is impacting precipitation and winds to create fire weather and drive fire spread on heavily vegetated slopes of coastal mountains....
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Climate change is altering the patterns and characteristics of fire across natural systems in the United States. Resource managers in the Southwest are faced with making natural resource and fire management decisions now, despite a lack of accessible information about how those decisions will play out as fire regimes, and their associated disturbances, will change across the landscape. Decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about projected future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An accessible and forward-looking summary of what we know about the “future of fire” is urgently required in the Southwest and across the country...
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Clear Lake, California’s largest freshwater lake, is an important site for seven federally recognized Tribal Nations and numerous related Tribes and Tribal communities, where they hold lakeside cultural ceremonies, fish and recreate, and gather tule reeds. Today, climate change has amplified ecological imbalances within the lake, endangering aquatic wildlife and threatening the health and wellbeing of Tribal citizens. To conserve Clear Lake’s culturally significant sites and species, this project seeks to understand the relationship between wildfires, harmful algal blooms, and aquatic toxins degrading the lake’s ecosystems. The research will particularly examine threats to the endemic, endangered, and culturally...
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Actionable science has evolved rapidly over the last decade, and the Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network has established itself as a leader in the field. The practice of actionable science is generally described as user-focused, action-oriented science that addresses pressing real-world climate adaptation challenges. It is also sometimes referred to as usable science, translational ecology, and coproduction. Successfully carrying out actionable science projects requires a range of skills, mindsets, and techniques in addition to scientific knowledge. Those skills can include mutual learning with stakeholders, attention to social and political context, iterative creative problem-solving, and interdisciplinary...
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Managing water resources in arid regions is increasingly important in the face of more frequent droughts and desertification that is occurring with climate change. These challenges of climate change intersect with potential environmental contamination from naturally occurring sources and legacy human activity (such as mining) and create a need for sustainable land and water management planning solutions. This project aims to help create sustainability plans by involving and training the community and by making water resource data accessible and available. The project is a collaboration between the University of Arizona Indigenous Resilience Center, the Southwest Research Information Center, and local communities...
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The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in the southwestern United States. Consistent water level declines in Colorado River Basin reservoirs have focused research attention on the long-term changes in winter precipitation and the timing of snowmelt and runoff. Research on how warming temperatures affect winter precipitation and spring snowmelt is ongoing, however, less attention has been given to changes in spring and summer precipitation which also affects water supply, plant growth, and competition between native and non-native plants, and, in turn affects wildfire dynamics and wildlife habitat. The amount and timing of summer precipitation is largely influenced by variation in the North American...
    map background search result map search result map Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region: Temperature and Precipitation A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network Landscape Management Practices on the Pueblo de San Ildefonso Monitoring and Adaptation to Conserve Clear Lake Cultural Keystone Species Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Data release for climate change impacts on surface water extents across the central United States Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Cultivating Water Resilience with Indigenous Peoples in Arid Lands Landscape Management Practices on the Pueblo de San Ildefonso Monitoring and Adaptation to Conserve Clear Lake Cultural Keystone Species Cultivating Water Resilience with Indigenous Peoples in Arid Lands Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region: Temperature and Precipitation A Climate-Informed Conservation Strategy for Southern California’s Montane Forests Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Understanding the Effects of Seasonal Precipitation Changes on Hydrology and Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin Future of Fire in the Southwest: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Data release for climate change impacts on surface water extents across the central United States Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network