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The Colorado River supplies water to 27 million users in 7 states and 2 countries and irrigates over 3 million acres of farmland. Global climate models almost unanimously project that human-induced climate change will reduce runoff in this region by 10-30%. This work explores whether currently scheduled future water deliveries from the Colorado River system are sustainable under different climate-change scenarios. If climate change reduces runoff by 10%, scheduled deliveries will be missed approximately 58% of the time by 2050. If runoff reduces 20%, they will be missed approximately 88% of the time. The mean shortfall when full deliveries cannot be met increases from approximately 0.5-0.7 billion cubic meters per...
It is hypothesized that Utah beef producers in certain locations could intensify private land use via improved forages and irrigation. Although intensification could increase ranch productivity and help compensate for any future restrictions in public grazing, is the approach profitable and sustainable in a dynamic environment? We investigated the efficacy of intensification using linear programming for three size-classes of model ranches. Model solutions maximize returns net of forage costs; outputs include brood-herd dynamics, optimal forage mixes, and net returns. The model is driven by 11-year risk scenarios combining high or low precipitation with high or low beef prices. We then consider current or no access...
In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers...
The management of water resources in arid and semiarid areas has long been a challenge, from ancient Mesopotamia to the modern southwestern United States. As our understanding of the hydrological and climatological cycles has improved, and our ability to manipulate the hydrologic cycle has increased, so too have the challenges associated with managing a limited natural resource for a growing population. Modern civilization has made remarkable progress in water management in the past few centuries. Burgeoning cities now survive in desert regions, relying on a mix of simple and complex technologies and management systems to bring adequate water and remove wastewater. These systems have permitted agricultural production...