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How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
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This data collection of the 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) consists of Lidar Point Cloud (LPC) projects as provided to the USGS. These point cloud files contain all the original lidar points collected, with the original spatial reference and units preserved. These data may have been used as the source of updates to the 1/3-arcsecond, 1-arcsecond, and 2-arcsecond seamless 3DEP Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). The 3DEP data holdings serve as the elevation layer of The National Map, and provide foundational elevation information for earth science studies and mapping applications in the United States. Lidar (Light detection and ranging) discrete-return point cloud data are available in LAZ format. The LAZ format is a lossless...
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.