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These data are netcdf files of the projected timing of the onset of thermal stress severe enough (>8 Degree Heating Weeks) to cause coral bleaching 2x per decade and 10x per decade (annual) under emissions scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. The projected timing (a year between 2006 and 2100) is the data value. Values are only shown for the ~60,000 four-km pixels where coral reefs are known to occur.
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The travel time map was generated using the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst model from the USGS. The travel time analysis uses ESRI's Path Distance tool to find the shortest distance across a cost surface from any point in the hazard zone to a safe zone. This cost analysis considers the direction of movement and assigns a higher cost to steeper slopes, based on a table contained within the model. The analysis also adds in the energy costs of crossing different types of land cover, assuming that less energy is expended walking along a road than walking across a sandy beach. To produce the time map, the evacuation surface output from the model is grouped into 1-minute increments for easier visualization. The times in...
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These data represent simulated soil temperature and moisture conditions for current climate, and for future climate represented by all available climate models at two time periods during the 21st century. These data were used to: 1) quantify the direction and magnitude of expected changes in several measures of soil temperature and soil moisture, including the key variables used to distinguish the regimes used in the R and R categories; 2) assess how these changes will impact the geographic distribution of soil temperature and moisture regimes; and 3) explore the implications for using R and R categories for estimating future ecosystem resilience and resistance.
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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For management agencies, there is a growing need to understand (1) how climate change affects and will continue to affect wildlife populations of conservation concern, and (2) how the negative Upper Midwest Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative Request for Funding 2013 demographic effects of climate change can be mitigated through management strategies. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) integrates available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, details assumptions and uncertainties, and ultimately projects population-level responses of target species to future climate change. Climate change is already influencing distributions and abundances of species throughout North...
Prior research has shown that sediment budgets, and therefore stability, of microtidal marsh complexes scale with areal unvegetated to vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. This effort has developed the UVVR metric using Landsat 8 satellite imagery for the coastal areas of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets provide annual averages of 1) developed, 2) vegetated, 3) unvegetated fractional covers and 4) an unvegetated to vegetated ratio (UVVR) at 30-meter resolution over the coastal areas of the contiguous United States for the years 2014-2018. Additionally, multi-year average values of vegetated fractional cover...
Prior research has shown that sediment budgets, and therefore stability, of microtidal marsh complexes scale with areal unvegetated to vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. This effort has developed the UVVR metric using Landsat 8 satellite imagery for the coastal areas of the contiguous United States (CONUS). These datasets provide annual averages of 1) developed, 2) vegetated, 3) unvegetated fractional covers and 4) an unvegetated to vegetated ratio (UVVR) at 30-meter resolution over the coastal areas of the contiguous United States for the years 2014-2018. Additionally, multi-year average values of vegetated fractional cover...
What are current conditions for important park natural resources? What are the critical data and knowledge gaps? What are some of the factors that are influencing park resource conditions? Natural Resource Condition Assessments (NRCAs) evaluate and report on the above for a subset of important natural resources in national park units (hereafter, parks). Focal study resources and indicators are selected on a park-by-park basis, guided by use of structured resource assessment and reporting frameworks. Considerations include park resource setting and enabling legislation (what are this park's most important natural resources?) and presently available data and expertise (what can be evaluated at this time?). In addition...
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Natural landscapes in the Southwestern United States are changing. In recent decades, rising temperatures and drought have led to drier conditions, contributed to large-scale ecological impacts, and affected many plant and animal species across the region. The current and future trajectory of climate change underscores the need for managers and conservation professionals to understand the impacts of these patterns on natural resources. In this regional assessment of the Southwest Climate Change Initiative, we evaluate changes in annual average temperatures from 1951–2006 across major habitats and large watersheds and compare these changes to the number of species of conservation concern that are found within these...
Exposure (vulnerability) index for the future time period (2061-2080) representing projected climate conditions from the Meteorological Research Institute's Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, version 3, and the rcp85 emissions scenario. The exposure model uses LANDFIRE vegetation data and Worldclim climate data .The raster values represent exposure scores for the corresponding vegetation type. The modeled vegetation types can be spatially associated with the exposure values by overlaying them with the "landfire_veg_sw_300m.tif" raster.Exposure values represent where the location falls in climate space relative to its recent historical distribution:5 (core 5% of historical climate space); 10 (5 -...
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This project had two primary goals: 1) To develop a process for integrating data from multiple sources to improve predictions of climate impacts for wildlife species; and 2) To provide data on climate and related hydrological change, fire behavior under future climates, and species’ distributions for use by researchers and resource managers.We present within this report the process used to integrate species niche models, fire simulations, and vulnerability assessment methods and provide species’ reports that summarize the results of this work. Species niche model analysis provides information on species’ distributions under three climate scenarios and time periods. Niche model analysis allows us to estimate the...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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For the Green River Basin Landscape Conservation Design (GRB LCD) assessment, we mapped the vulnerability of the sagebrush ecosystem to oil and gas development for each 12-digit hydrologic unit. Using a vulnerability framework, we defined Sensitivity (S) as the multi-scale average of sagebrush ecosystem land cover derived from LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation Type (LANDFIRE 2014). Exposure (E) to oil and gas development was quantified as the average kernel density of active oil and gas wells at multiple scales. Potential Impact (PI) is the square root transformed product of oil and gas development exposure and sagebrush ecosystem sensitivity. Adaptive Capacity (AC) for sagebrush ecosystem was quantified as the inverse...
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For the Green River Basin Landscape Conservation Design (GRB LCD) assessment, we mapped the vulnerability of the critical habitat for threatened and endangered fish species to oil and gas development for each 12-digit hydrologic unit. The following threatened and endangered fish species were included in this vulnerability assessment: Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius), Bonytail Chub (Gila elegans), Humpback chub (Gila cypha), and razorback sucker (Xyrauchen texanus). Using a vulnerability framework, we defined Sensitivity (S) as the average combined area of critical fish habitat within HUC12 polygons. Exposure (E) to oil and gas development was quantified the log transformed upstream flow accumulation of...
Categories: Data; Types: ArcGIS REST Map Service, ArcGIS Service Definition, Downloadable, Map Service; Tags: Colorado, Colorado, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Green River Basin, Green River Basin, All tags...
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For the Green River Basin Landscape Conservation Design (GRB LCD) assessment, we mapped the vulnerability of riparian habitat for terrestrial species and process. Using a vulnerability framework, we defined Sensitivity (S) as the percent riparian vegetation within the valley bottom and Exposure (E) as the amount of human modification within the valley bottom. For each 12-digit hydrologic unit code within the GRB LCD we summarized the riparian sensitivity and exposure to human modification. We also computed Potential Impact (PI), and Adaptive Capacity (AC) metrics at the HUC12 level. PI is the square root transformed product of human modification exposure and riparian sensitivity. AC for riparian exposure to human...
Reducing coral reef vulnerability to climate change requires that managers understand and support the natural resilience of coral reefs. We define coral reef resilience as: the capacity of a reef to resist and/or recover from disturbance given its probable exposure regime, and maintain provision of ecosystem goods and services. Spatial variation in exposure to disturbance and the resilience of reefs in the face of those disturbances will determine the fate of coral reefs within management jurisdictions. This project sought to: (1) undertake ecological resilience assessments in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), which is in the west Pacific near Guam, and (2) collaboratively develop a decision-support...
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As part of the Hurricane Sandy Science Plan, the U.S. Geological Survey is expanding National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards and forecast products to coastal wetlands. The intent is to provide federal, state, and local managers with tools to estimate the vulnerability of coastal wetlands to various factors and to evaluate their ecosystem service potential. For this purpose, the response and resilience of coastal wetlands to physical factors need to be assessed in terms of the ensuing change to their vulnerability and ecosystem services. Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge (EBFNWR), New Jersey, was selected as a pilot study area. As part of this data synthesis effort, hydrodynamic and sediment transport...
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The 2006 National Insect and Disease Risk Map (NIDRM) Project integrates 188 individual risk models constructed within a common, consistent framework that accounts for regional variations in current and future forest health. The 2006 risk assessment, conducted within the contiguous United States and Alaska, provides a consistent, repeatable, transparent process through which interactive spatial and temporal risk assessments can be conducted at various scales to aid in the allocation of resources for forest health management. This modeling process is intended to increase the utilization of forest health risk maps within and outside the National Forest System and encourage development of future risk maps. NIDRM...
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The travel time map was generated using the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst model from the USGS. The travel time analysis uses ESRI's Path Distance tool to find the shortest distance across a cost surface from any point in the hazard zone to a safe zone. This cost analysis considers the direction of movement and assigns a higher cost to steeper slopes, based on a table contained within the model. The analysis also adds in the energy costs of crossing different types of land cover, assuming that less energy is expended walking along a road than walking across a sandy beach. To produce the time map, the evacuation surface output from the model is grouped into 1-minute increments for easier visualization. The times in...
map background search result map search result map Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Modeled fir engraver beetle basal area loss - 2006 Northern Leopard Frog: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Natural Resource Condition Assessments Managing Changing Landscapes in the Southwestern United States Tsunami Evacuation Travel Time Map for Del Norte County, CA, 2010, for Bridges Intact and a Fast Walking Speed Tsunami Evacuation Travel Time Map for Humboldt County, CA, 2010, for Bridges Intact and a Fast Walking Speed Change in salinity exposure of salt marsh units in Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge, New Jersey during Hurricane Sandy Final Report: Vulnerability of Riparian Obligate Species in the Rio Grande to the Interactive Effects of Fire, Hydrological Variation and Climate Change Publication: A blind spot in climate change Report: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Species of Conservation Concern: Distributions and Demographics Across a Landscape Conservation Cooperative Vulnerability of Riparian Habitat to Land Uses in the Green River Basin Vulnerability of Critical Fish Habitat to Oil and Gas Development in the Green River Basin Vulnerability of Sagebrush Ecosystem to Oil and Gas Development for the Green River Basin Historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Standard deviation of the vegetated fraction in coastal wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast (16-bit GeoTIFF) Standard deviation of the vegetated fraction in coastal wetlands along the U.S. Pacific Coast (16-bit GeoTIFF) Tsunami Evacuation Travel Time Map for Del Norte County, CA, 2010, for Bridges Intact and a Fast Walking Speed Northern Leopard Frog: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Final Report: Vulnerability of Riparian Obligate Species in the Rio Grande to the Interactive Effects of Fire, Hydrological Variation and Climate Change Vulnerability of Critical Fish Habitat to Oil and Gas Development in the Green River Basin Vulnerability of Sagebrush Ecosystem to Oil and Gas Development for the Green River Basin Vulnerability of Riparian Habitat to Land Uses in the Green River Basin Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Standard deviation of the vegetated fraction in coastal wetlands along the U.S. Pacific Coast (16-bit GeoTIFF) Standard deviation of the vegetated fraction in coastal wetlands along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast (16-bit GeoTIFF) Managing Changing Landscapes in the Southwestern United States Publication: A blind spot in climate change Report: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Species of Conservation Concern: Distributions and Demographics Across a Landscape Conservation Cooperative Historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Modeled fir engraver beetle basal area loss - 2006 Natural Resource Condition Assessments