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Disappearing Refugia: Identifying Trends and Resilience in Unburned Islands under Climate Change Wildfires are one of the greatest threats to human infrastructure and the ecosystem services humans value in the western US, but are also necessary in fire-adapted ecosystems. Wildfire activity is widely projected to increase in response to climate change in the Northwest, but we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of what this increase will look like or what its impacts will be on a variety of ecological and hydrologic systems. This project addressed one critical part of those impacts: the islands of unburned vegetation within wildfires. Unburned islands occur naturally as wildfires burn across landscapes, and are important habitat refuges for species -- places where plants and animals survive the fire... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Fire, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Landscapes, Northwest, Northwest, Northwest, Northwest, Northwest CASC, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, burn severity, habitat, wildfire, Fewer tags The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CA, CASC, CO, Completed, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Federal, Fire, Fire, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, NM, NV, OR, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Southwest US, UT, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, adaptive capacity, assessment, climate change, connectivity, ecosystem, ensemble, exposure, fire, forests, forests, management, model, multiple, prism, sensitivity, trees, vegetation, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment, wildfire, woodlands, woodlands, Fewer tags Assessing Post-Fire Aspen Seedling Success on the Colorado Plateau Aspen is a highly valued tree species in western forests, but it has been declining due to drought, herbivory, and fire suppression. Fire suppression has contributed to aspen’s decline because post-fire environments provide more opportunities for aspen to regenerate, both by resprouting and by seed. Regeneration from seed in these post-fire settings is particularly valuable because it increases aspen population genetic diversity and resilience. However, natural seeding events are not common, and mortality rates for seedlings are quite high. Nursery-grown seedlings provide a promising alternative and an opportunity for assisted migration, but planting protocols have not been well developed and mortality rates for... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2023, Aspen, CASC, Forests, Landscapes, All tags... Microsite, Plants, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Wildlife and Plants, soil moisture, tree planting, wildfire, Fewer tags The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California In California, increased wildfire activity has been linked to decreasing snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Not only has this translated into a longer fire season, but reduced snowpack has cascading effects that impact streamflow, water supplies, agricultural productivity, and ecosystems. California receives 80% of its precipitation during the winter, so mountain snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state’s water supply. One factor that affects the amount of winter precipitation (and therefore snowpack) in California is the North Pacific Jet (NPJ)—a current of strong, high altitude winds that occur over the northern Pacific Ocean. Winters when the NPJ is located further north than normal are drier than... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Report; Tags: 2013, CA, CA-wide, CASC, Completed, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Federal, Fire, Fire, Landscapes, Landscapes, NPJ, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Other Water, Other Water, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, atmosphere, climatology, decadal, ecological response, ecosystem, ecosystem, fire, hydrological response, jet stream, management, north pacific jet, snowmelt, snowpack, tree ring reconstruction, tree rings, water, wildfire, wildfire, Fewer tags Fire Risk Scores from Predictive Model Based on Flammability and Fire Ecology of Non-Native Hawaiian Plants from 2020-2021 We developed a screening system to identify introduced plant species that are likely to increase wildfire risk, using the Hawaiian Islands to test the system and illustrate how the system can be applied to inform management decisions. Expert-based fire risk scores derived from field experiences with 49 invasive species in Hawai′i were used to train a machine learning model that predicts expert fire risk scores from among 21 plant traits obtained from literature and databases. The model revealed that just four variables can identify species categorized as higher fire risk by experts with 90% accuracy, while low risk species were identified with 79% accuracy. We then used the predictive model to screen 365 naturalized... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Hawaii, farming, fire, fire risk, flammability, All tags... invasive plants, post-fire regeneration, species profile, weeds, wildfire, Fewer tags