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Estimates of weather suitability for the occurrence of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, avverage April-Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis done at a 1km grid cell resolution. Weather suitability index calculated by summing the weather terms in the model. Calculated for 2010 through 2099 based on numerous downscaled data under several emissions scenarios. GCMs include: BCC, CanESM, CCSM, CESM, CESM-BGC, CMCC,...
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Estimates of weather suitability for the occurrence of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, avverage April-Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis done at a 1km grid cell resolution. Weather suitability index calculated by summing the weather terms in the model. Calculated for 2010 through 2099 based on downscaled data from various emissions scenarios. GCMs include: BCC, CanESM, CCSM, CESM, CESM-BGC, CMCC, CNRM, Had-CC,...
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A rapidly changing climate and expanding human footprint is driving increased rates of landscape change in the Pacific Northwest. This makes it challenging for managers to know if and to what extent recovery goals and conservation plans for at-risk species need to be modified to account for changing habitat conditions. Addressing this challenge requires accurate, up-to-date information about landscape change and how it affects the habitat and viability of at-risk species. In addition, managers need to be alerted when trends in habitat conditions approach key ecological thresholds, in order to determine if management goals and plans need to be modified in response to these changes. The goal of this project is to...
Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management of recreationally and commercially important fisheries, which have been valued at more than $7 billion USD annually. Our research focused on how climate change could influence fish habitat (including water temperature, ice cover, and water levels), phytoplankton production that supports fish biomass, and ultimately the growth and consumption of many important recreational and commercial fish species. This final report was produced for the NCCWSC-funded project Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes.
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Many shorebirds and nearshore waterbirds are of conservation concern across the Gulf of Mexico due to stressors such as human disturbance, predation, and habitat loss and degradation. Conservation and protection of these birds is important for the functioning of healthy ecosystems and for maintaining biodiversity in North America. Consequently, resource managers along the gulf need decision-aiding tools that can efficiently help to answer important conservation questions for different species (e.g. which areas and how much area should be targeted by management actions to meet a particular species’ needs). To address this need, project researchers are developing statistical models that will help identify habitat...
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Forests across the southwestern U.S. are crucial components of recreation and play an important role in state and local economies. Healthy forests also provide needed habitat for many wildlife species and contribute many other important services to our planet. “Hotter droughts” (otherwise normal droughts whose effects on ecosystems are exacerbated by higher temperatures) are an emerging climate change threat to forests with some of their earliest and strongest appearances happening in the Southwest. The Leaf to Landscape project uses California’s unusually hot drought as a potential preview of the future, allowing us to collect information that will help guide forest management in the face of a warming climate....
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In this proposal we investigate how tree selection at the local scale affects biodiversity and ecosystem services (Obj. 1). We then look regionally to determine the extent to which trees in cities can be used to predict heat-related threats to rural forests (Obj. 2). We will leverage ongoing investigations of heat-related stress and pest outbreaks in urban and rural forests to develop management recommendations for both systems. These ongoing projects provide a knowledge-base, infrastructure (e.g. study sites), equipment (e.g. Li-Cor Photosynthesis System), and outreach opportunities that will extend the impact of this project (see Synergistic and Future Funding section below). We will also convene a working group...
Changes in the Earth’s climate are expected to impact freshwater habitats around the world by altering water temperatures, water levels, and streamflow. These changes will have consequences for inland fish – those found within lakes, rivers, streams, canals, reservoirs, and other landlocked waters – which are important for food, commerce, and recreation around the world. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, in 2011, 33.1 million people fished and spent $41.8 billion in the United States alone. Yet to date, little comprehensive research has been conducted to investigate the effects of climate change on inland fisheries at a large scale. The aim of this project was to summarize the current state of knowledge,...
Abstract: Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation...
This article is a product from the project "Can Mammals Mediate Climatically-Induced Vegetation Transitions in Alpine Ecosystems of the Western United States?". Abstract: In ecological studies, it is useful to estimate the probability that a species occurs at given locations. The probability of presence can be modeled by traditional statistical methods, if both presence and absence data are available. However, the challenge is that most species records contain only presence data, without reliable absence data. Previous presence-only methods can estimate a relative index of habitat suitability, but cannot estimate the actual probability of presence. In this study, we develop a presence and background learning...
Abstract: Restoration of degraded wet meadows found on upland valley floors has been proposed to achieve a range of ecological benefits, including augmenting late‐season streamflow. There are, however, few field and modelling studies documenting hydrologic changes following restoration that can be used to validate this expectation, and published changes in groundwater levels and streamflow following restoration are inconclusive. Here, we assess the streamflow benefit that can be obtained by wet‐meadow restoration using a physically based quantitative analysis. This framework employs a 1‐dimensional linearized Boussinesq equation with a superimposed solution for changes in storage due to groundwater upwelling and...
Native Americans in the Southwest United States are thought to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Tribal resiliency to climate change can be affected by multiple climate-related threats and by tribal communities’ close reliance on natural resources for sustenance, economic development, and maintenance of cultural traditions. A scientifically rigorous assessment of such threats to Native Americans is a pressing need across southwestern landscapes. This project examined factors affecting Native American tribes, including water rights for fish and wildlife, protection of wetlands, and enhancement and recovery of the Pyramid Lake, Nevada fishery, and protection of important fish species. This project aimed...
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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Cold-water adapted Brook Trout were historically widely distributed – ranging from northern Quebec to Georgia, and from the Atlantic Ocean to Manitoba in the north, and along the Appalachian ridge in the south. However, studies show that due to factors associated with climate change, such as increased stream temperature and changing water flow, the number of streams containing Brook Trout is declining. Although efforts have been made to protect and restore this cold-water fish at local levels, the extent that temperature increases will vary within and across different streams and the ability of Brook Trout to seek cold-water refugia or adapt to these increasing stream temperatures currently remains unclear. The...
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Studying the impacts of climate on important ecological responses is a recent priority of monitoring programs throughout the Northeast. Established sampling protocols for data collection, whether to inform estimates of species abundance or occupancy, were designed to evaluate the effects of non-climate stressors (e.g., habitat conversion) and related management actions. Traditional modeling approaches may not accurately identify important relationships between species and climate nor elicit useful information on how these species will be impacted by climate change. Management decisions based on these traditional modeling approaches could have negative and unintended consequences on species and habitat conservation....
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States in the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (SEAFWA) region have faced challenges when trying to develop regional plans or actions for many conservation issues. Leadership in many SEAFWA states is hesitant to approach the topic of climate change at all, let alone engage in multi-state efforts to mitigate climate impacts. Recent Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SE CASC) supported research surveyed agency directors and supervisory boards, and discovered their primary concerns revolved around agency budgets, “R3” efforts (i.e., to recruit, retain, and reactivate hunters and anglers), and public outreach to maintain social relevance. Another project supported by the SE CASC and the...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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Mountain meadows in the western United States provide key habitats for many plant and wildlife species, many of which rely exclusively on these areas. Mountain meadows are also treasured by the public and provide beautiful areas to view wildflowers and wildlife on public lands such as national parks. However, mountain ecosystems are expected to be disproportionately affected by climate change. There is a limited understanding of how mountain meadows are changing, how temperature and precipitation may be driving those changes, and how this will impact sensitive species that inhabit these landscapes. Natural resource managers have an immediate need to understand these relationships to conserve or restore habitats...
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Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. We mapped these future projections and integrated them into an existing web-based tool (http://data.pointblue.org/apps/nwcsc/) to allow managers and planners to access and...
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
map background search result map search result map Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern Weather suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, 2010-2099, Cascades Study Area Weather suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, 2010-2099, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Study Area An Alert System for Managing At-Risk Species in Cascadia under Climate Change Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams From Water to Wildlife: Linking Water Timing and Availability to Meadows and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Putting the Sampling Design to Work: Enhancing Species Monitoring Programs in the Face of Climate Change Improving Support for Regional Conservation Efforts in the Region Managed by the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Leaf to Landscape: Understanding and Mapping the Vulnerability of Forests to Hotter Droughts Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Weather suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, 2010-2099, Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Study Area Weather suitability for mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, 2010-2099, Cascades Study Area Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species From Water to Wildlife: Linking Water Timing and Availability to Meadows and Wildlife in a Changing Climate Identifying Conservation Objectives for the Gulf Coast Habitats of the Black Skimmer and Gull-billed Tern Putting the Sampling Design to Work: Enhancing Species Monitoring Programs in the Face of Climate Change An Alert System for Managing At-Risk Species in Cascadia under Climate Change Consequences of Urbanization and Climate Change on Human and Ecosystem Health Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Improving Support for Regional Conservation Efforts in the Region Managed by the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies