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Nov 26, 2013 presentation by Seth Wenger, Trout Unlimited; w/ Dan Isaak, USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station & Jason Dunham, USGS, Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Cntr. The presentation explains an analytic approach that calculates a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species; and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat. This is based on the journal publication, "Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change," and a bull trout suitable habitat analysis is used to illustrate methods. See: Global Change Biology, DOI:10.1111/gcb.12294 Sponsored by the Northwest Climate Science Center and the Pacific...
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Contains two layers: 1. Bull Trout Vulnerability Assessment: This analysis was generated to show the relative vulnerability of bull trout across the Columbia basin. Input variables include the prportion of valley bottom (e.g. floodplains), the average max summer temperature (July 15th to Sept 15th), and winter flood frequency (the frequency of high flow events exceeding the 95th percentile from December through March) for a given watershed. The estimates for temperature and flow were taken from the mouth of the watershed. This analysis includes historic and future (2040s scenario). Stream temperature and flow data are avaliable at rap.ntsg.umt.edu. See Wu H, Kimball JS, Elsner MM, Mantua N, Adler RF, Stanford...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12850/abstract): Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether...
Parent Project: Range-Wide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout Publication Abstract: Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species’ range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable...
Bull Trout is the most cold-adapted fish in freshwaters of the Pacific Northwest. The species is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but climate warming may place the species at further risk. Climate warming may lead to warming of streams in summer and increasing probability of floods in winter, leading to widespread loss of habitat projected for Bull Trout. This project sought to further elaborate how these climate-related threats influence Bull Trout across five western states (OR, WA, ID, MT, NV). These states form the southern margin of the species’ range. We used predictions of temperatures in streams across approximately two-thirds of this extent to map coldwater streams or “patches”...
Abstract (from http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/abs/10.1139/cjfas-2014-0098#.VN_BFGjF_gl): Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population...
This update was provided to FWS on March 21, 2013. The assessment incorporates an evaluation of climate and non-climate threats, and potential interactions among them to evaluate potential bull trout persistence. In summary, it includes the following steps: 1) Map suitable habitat "patches" across the species' range in the conterminous United States; 2) Attribute patches with information on local and climate related threats; 3) Map and attribute migratory habitats for the species and their relationship to "patches;" and 4) model persistence of bull trout in relation to local and climate related threats in patches and migratory habitats. For more information, contact Jason Dunham, U.S. Geological Survey, Forest...
Supplementary Information Table S1. Bull trout populations, recovery units, watershed, and allelic richness values across the Columbia River, USA. The ‘Conservation recovery unit’ and ‘Watershed’ groupings were used as random effects in linear mixed models. From (Kovach, R.P., et al. (2015). Genetic Diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout. Global Change Biology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12850.
    map background search result map search result map Bull Trout Vulnerability Assessment in Columbia River Basin Geodatabase Bull Trout Vulnerability Assessment in Columbia River Basin Geodatabase