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High-temporal resolution meteorological output from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) is used to assess changes in wildland fire danger across the western United States due to climatic changes projected in the 21st century. A business-as-usual scenario incorporating changing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations until the year 2089 is compared to a 1975 - 1996 base period. Changes in relative humidity, especially drying over much of the West, are projected to increase the number of days of high fire danger ( based on the energy release component (ERC) index) at least through the year 2089 in comparison to the base period. The regions most affected are the northern Rockies, Great Basin and the Southwest - regions...
Coal is the one fossil energy source that can play a substantial role as a transitional energy source as one moves from the petroleum and natural gas based economic system to the future economic system based on nondepletable or renewable energy systems. For coal to remain competitive with other sources of energy in the industrialized countries of the world, continuing technological improvements in all aspects of coal extraction have been necessary. Coal has many important uses, but most significantly in electricity generation, steel and cement manufacture, and industrial process heating. Despite the long-term importance of oil and gas use, coal will remain a major pillar of the world’s energy supply. Developing...
High-temporal resolution meteorological output from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) is used to assess changes in wildland fire danger across the western United States due to climatic changes projected in the 21st century. A business-as-usual scenario incorporating changing greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations until the year 2089 is compared to a 1975 - 1996 base period. Changes in relative humidity, especially drying over much of the West, are projected to increase the number of days of high fire danger ( based on the energy release component (ERC) index) at least through the year 2089 in comparison to the base period. The regions most affected are the northern Rockies, Great Basin and the Southwest - regions...
The opportunities for long term energy efficiency improvement in industry have been studied. Three studies are described. The first study was directed at making a preliminary survey of technologies that might reduce the end-use demand of industrial processes on the long term. The second study focused on the development of a methodology to make a more profound analysis of the long term potential. The third study describes a database for energy efficient technologies. It is concluded that, after technologies that are currently technically feasible have been implemented, there still exists a considerable (new) potential for improvement.
Natural gas wells contaminated with the toxic gas hydrogen sulfide (i.e., sour-gas wells) pose potential health risks to workers and to nearby residents. The health risks are a function of the dose-response relationship of hydrogen sulfide, the likelihood of accidental releases, gaseous emission rates, the nature of releases at the well head, dispersion of the emitted gas, and the characteristics of the population at risk. We discuss each of these factors and present a risk analysis of a hypothetical sour-gas well in the vicinity of Evanston, WY. We found that the greatest risks for life-threatening effects would occur in the northwest downwind sector after a horizontal release of gas at the well. Subacute effects...
The Health and Safety Laboratory (HASL) of the Atomic Energy Commission has provided much of the data on exposure assessment in uranium contractor facilities and on fallout radionuclides in the environment. The research performed in the beryllium industry 1947-1949 led to establishment of the protection standards that exist to this day. This laboratory was formed in 1947, as part of the Medical Division of the New York Operations Office, directed by B.S. Wolf. HASL was directed initially by Merril Eisenbud and subsequently by S. Allen Lough and John Harley. The history of the Laboratory is traced from its beginning, and the projects described that led to HASL's reputation as a trouble-shooting arm of the Atomic...
Community energy initiatives offer a potentially important means for reshaping the electrical system in a manner compatible with emissions reduction goals. Many such initiatives, however, focus upon top-down, institutionally structured approaches that understand community residents as atomistic, economically motivated, and minimally engaged. This paper examines a number of case studies that are based upon a bottom-up approach rooted in a civic culture that seeks to maximize the capacities of an active and engaged citizenry. The paper focuses upon two mutually dependent issues: first, recruiting community members, and second, sustaining their participation.
This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971–2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions,...
Policy assessment of energy conservation strategies has tended to emphasize technological and economic costs, problems, and benefits. However, too narrow a focus may fail to delineate all the environmental and social impacts associated with the technology in question. In recognition of the importance of a balanced evaluation, a study was undertaken to identify local-level perceptions about environmental and social problems and opportunities associated with several energy conservation measures. These measures included building performance standards and retrofit; waste heat utilization; modifications in land use configurations and transportation modes; and electric utility demand management, and rate reform initiatives....
Wind power is a maturing technology that may form an essential element of fully renewable energy systems in a number of countries. Denmark has a long history of wind power development and is planning to expand its existing capacity. If large-scale penetration of wind power is to be achieved, an integrated framework is needed that can respond to the associated challenges. This paper argues for adopting an integrated macro perspective when evaluating and building frameworks to support wind power development. This macro perspective is applied to the case of Denmark, and more specifically to concrete wind power projects in the region of Northern Jutland. The results suggest that although certain elements in the current...
Based on the need to reduce CO2 emissions and minimize energy dependency, the EU Member States have set ambitious energy policies goals and have developed respective, specific regulations, in order to improve the energy performance of the building sector. Thus, specific measures regarding the buildings’ envelope, the use of efficient HVAC technologies and the integration of renewable energy systems are being constantly studied and promoted. The effective combination of these three main aspects will consequently result in maximum energy efficiency. Germany has played a key role in this development, with intensive work focusing in the improvement of the energy behaviour of the residential building stock. In this paper,...
China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different...
China is striving for coordinated regional economic development and to solve the energy shortage in eastern China through a western China development plan with one focus being energy development and west to east energy transfer. This paper describes Western China Sustainable Energy Development Model (WSED) to evaluate various energy development scenarios for western China. The model includes a Western China MARKAL model, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Western China (WCGE), and an Energy Service Demand Projection Model (ESDP). The ESDP provides energy service demand projections for the Western China MARKAL model, while the WCGE provides macroeconomic inputs for the ESDP and analyzes the impact of different...
Biofuels world production has increased sharply in recent years. Oil reserves depletion, the oil high price and the confidence in biofuels “carbon neutrality” are the main causes of this phenomenon. However, claims related to the negative consequences of biofuel programs are frequent; mainly those related to the biofuels/food competition and sustainability. This paper aims to contribute for the development of a framework for sustainability indicators as a tool for performance assessment. The most used indicators to measure the biofuels sustainability are: Life Cycle Energy Balance (LCEB), quantity of fossil energy substituted per hectare, co-product energy allocation, life cycle carbon balance and changes in soil...
Many people believe that 'sustainable solutions' to global air pollution and climate change should include significant changes in human consumption and lifestyles. Under this heading six different NRP projects have been conducted. This chapter gives a review and assessment of these projects, supplemented with discussions of related research. The paper starts with a general statement of the environmental problem of household metabolism as a key component of the socio-economic production- consumption cycle. It summarises and comments upon nine different (sub)projects. And it ends with general observations, conclusions and suggestions for research and policy in relation to sustainable consumption patterns. Conceptual...
The main properties of a phytoclimatic model are explained. It is a technique for theoretic simulation but a field work verification is essential. The methodology involves the transformation of a territory's general phytoclimate data into particular phytoclimate estimates. We are dealing with a simple mathematical climate-soil-relief-vegetation model offering the possibility of predicting changes in vegetation liable to occur at any point in the Iberian peninsula's territory, when the climate data values of a site change as compared with data currently estimated. It consequently enables both alterations and sensitivity of potential plant communities to possible climate changes to be detected and predicted at a certain...
This paper presents the links between the climate model IMAGE 2 and the economic model WORLD SCAN, which are set up to obtain an integrated scenario instrument for comprehensive and consistent climate-economy scenarios. The links are made with respect to energy (in WORLD SCAN) and agriculture (in IMAGE 2), thus providing a consistent linkage with feedbacks running both ways.
The contribution of households to CO 2 production is still increasing. To alter patterns of energy consumption for example with respect to commuter traffic, using the freezer, and warming the house, changing life styles related to domestic energy consumption is considered. In our study, we have operationalized life style as means-end chains, that link perceived benefits of a particular behavior to basic values that people pursue. In this paper, preliminary results are presented of the study that is aimed at empirically establishing the feasibility of the concept of life style in relation to domestic energy consumption.
Policy assessment of energy conservation strategies has tended to emphasize technological and economic costs, problems, and benefits. However, too narrow a focus may fail to delineate all the environmental and social impacts associated with the technology in question. In recognition of the importance of a balanced evaluation, a study was undertaken to identify local-level perceptions about environmental and social problems and opportunities associated with several energy conservation measures. These measures included building performance standards and retrofit; waste heat utilization; modifications in land use configurations and transportation modes; and electric utility demand management, and rate reform initiatives....
The possible impacts of a climatic change associated with an increase in CO2 on the hydrology of forests is evaluated by applying sensitivity analysis and a climatic scenario to a one-dimensional model. Water consumption of forests is affected by changes in plant physiology and meteorological environment. Changes in species composition are not taken into account. Increase in CO2 leads to a decrease of stomatal conductance, resulting in a decrease in transpiration of 10-30%. The evaporation of rainfall interception by the canopy is increased due to a higher leaf area index and higher temperatures. Application of a wet scenario shows an increase in total interception, but the ratio between interception and precipitation...