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Society makes substantial investments in federal, Tribal, state, and private programs to supplement populations of valued species such as stocking fish, planting trees, rebuilding oyster reefs, and restoring prairies. These important efforts require long-term commitment, but climate change is making environmental conditions less predictable and more challenging to navigate. Selection of species for population supplementation is often based on performance prior to release, and one or a few species may then be used for decades even as the environment is changing. When these species are propagated in large numbers, they can become the dominant population as well as genetically overtake any local adaptations. Therefore,...
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National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with...
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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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Forests in the eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest, and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees celsius. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple...
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Controlling the spread and impacts of invasive species is becoming more challenging as climate conditions change. More relevant information is needed to guide timely and localized management actions for these species to preserve cultural resources and ecosystem integrity. Data products are most valuable when they are developed with input from the people who use them for invasive species management decisions. This project will invite decision makers, Tribal representatives, and natural resource managers to share the social and cultural values that influence their trust and use of data. These shared insights will be used by the project team to shape the format, delivery, and communication of a suite of map products...
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The forests of the Northeastern United States are home to some of the greatest diversity of nesting songbirds in the country. Climate change, shifts in natural disturbance regimes, and invasive species pose threats to forest habitats and bird species in the northeastern United States and represent major challenges to natural resource managers. Although broad adaptation approaches have been suggested for sustaining forested habitats under global change, it is unclear how effective the implementation of these strategies at local and regional scales will be for maintaining habitat conditions for a broad suite of forest-dependent bird species over time. Moreover, given the diversity in forest stakeholders across the...
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Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is usually considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been numerous challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions but also due to insufficient scientific information...
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Spruce-fir forests and associated bird species are recognized as some of the most vulnerable ecosystems and species to the impacts of climate change. This work capitalized on a rich suite of long-term data from these ecosystems to document recent trends in these forests and their associated bird species and developed tools for predicting their future abundance under climate change. Findings from this work indicate declining trends in the abundance of spruce-fir obligate birds, including Bicknell’s Thrush, across the Lake States and New England. In contrast, montane spruce-fir forests in the White and Green Mountains of New England exhibited patterns of increasing abundance, potentially due to their recovery from...
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Severe droughts cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the globe—even in areas with cooler climates. Mitigating the negative effects of climate change, in particular increased drought frequency and severity, poses a major challenge to forest managers. Managers are searching for strategies that minimize the negative effects of drought on forests (i.e. increase their resistance to drought) and maximize the ability of forests to recover after a drought (i.e. improve their resilience). Evidence suggests that forests with certain combinations of tree species, sizes, and stem densities are better able to withstand and recover from drought. The goal of this study was to identify which...
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Overview This project examines the ecological impacts of several introduced and expanding forest insects and diseases on forest habitats across the northeastern US and upper Lake States region. To address these novel threats, this work applies large-scale, co-developed experimental studies documenting impacts of ash mortality from emerald ash borer on lowland black ash communities in the Lake States and northern hardwood forests in New England; regional assessments of the impacts of the climate change-mediated expansion of southern pine beetle into northeastern pine barren communities; and ecological characterizations of areas experiencing suppression efforts to reduce the spread of the introduced Asian long-horned...
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The Southeastern United States has vast underground ecosystems where temperatures vary little throughout the year and humidity is always near 100%. These cave and karst ecosystems provide many services to people, such as recreational opportunities, revenue from tourism, and groundwater storage. Caves also provide habitats for important and endangered species, like bats that eat mosquitoes and crop pests. Cave-dwelling species have evolved to live in relatively stable climates, so they may be especially sensitive to climate change. However, it is unclear how surface climate change will affect cave climates and the species that rely on them, because caves are remote environments that have long been difficult to...
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The Southeast is currently undergoing high rates of population growth, urbanization, and land use change while also experiencing climatic changes. These changes are and will continue to threaten wildlife and their habitats. Most existing conservation programs and activities, however, focus on maintaining systems in their current condition, or returning them to a historic state, rather than enabling systems to adapt to projected changes. Recognizing this problem state fish and wildlife agencies, together with US Fish and Wildlife Service and others, have initiated the Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS). This project will support the SECAS effort, which aims to develop a collaborative network of conservation...
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This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to their decisions and priorities. The project team served as a resource to answer individual inquiries related to climate model projections in order to aid climate change adaptation. Additionally, the team contributed to the development of a synthesis document to help the Midwest and Northeast states prepare their threatened...
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High elevation red spruce forests are among the most iconic and visited natural communities in the High Alleghenies of the Central Appalachian Mountains. These ecosystems provide many services such as clean water and carbon sequestration, as well as habitat for species of high conservation concern, i.e., the eastern brook trout, the northern goshawk, and the northern flying squirrel. However, widespread logging and burning in the early 20th century significantly reduced the extent and integrity of red spruce forests. Replacement regeneration largely converted the region to northern hardwood forests. Recovery of red spruce forests has since been slowed by invasive pests and acidic atmospheric deposition, and the...
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The southeastern U.S. is home to many rare plant species, some at risk of extinction. A new national list has identified the top plant “Species of Greatest Conservation Need” (SGCN) across the region which can help southeastern states update their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) to include plants for the first time. In partnership with the Southeast Plant Conservation Alliance, NatureServe, and the SE Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, this project will build on the SGCN list by adding information for each species compiled from any previously conducted climate-vulnerability assessments. It will also identify the ecosystems that host the greatest numbers of rare plant species on the list (biodiversity...
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Scenario planning is one decision support method that can help natural resource managers incorporate information about uncertain future changes in climate into management decisions. To provide a proof of concept of the value of scenario planning in helping managers prepare for climate change, we conducted a pilot scenario planning effort aimed at helping state agencies in the northeastern United States develop climate-informed moose management goals and actions. To encourage participation by wildlife managers, we provided several opportunities for them to learn about scenario planning and examples of its application in natural resource management. We shared this information via guidance documents on incorporating...
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Forests play a role in air quality by supplying the atmosphere with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors to ozone and aerosols. Different tree types emit different VOCs, each with different capacity to form ozone and aerosols. Therefore, shifts in forest composition may impact ozone and aerosol yields. Climate change is one of the expected drivers of forest change. In particular, the current range boundaries of a variety of species are expected to shift northward. The impacts of these climate-induced shifts in forest composition on air quality, particularly VOC emissions and subsequent ozone and aerosol formation, is little understood. This project aimed to explore the relative contribution of shifts in...
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Coastal wetlands purify water, protect coastal communities from storms, sequester (store) carbon, and provide habitat for fish and wildlife. They are also vulnerable to climate change. In particular, changes in winter climate (warmer temperatures and fewer freeze events) may transform coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as mangrove forests are expected to expand their range and replace salt marshes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. As part of this project, researchers identified important thresholds for ecosystem changes and highlighted coastal areas in the southeastern U.S. (e.g., Texas, Louisiana,...
map background search result map search result map Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Climate, the Boreal Forest, and Moose: A Pilot Project for Scenario Planning to Inform Land and Wildlife Management Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Developing a Cave Conservation Management Toolbox by Exploring Cave Microclimates and Biodiversity Patterns Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (CAPS) to Enhance Fishery and Forestry Outcomes Climate Impact Summaries for Rare-Plant Biodiversity in the Southeastern U.S. Using the Virginia Northern Flying Squirrel to Guide Resilient Restoration of Red Spruce in the Central Appalachians Developing Climate Calendars to Inform Invasive Species Management in the Northeast Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Spruce-Fir Forest Ecosystems and Associated Priority Bird Populations Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Climate-Adaptive Population Supplementation (CAPS) to Enhance Fishery and Forestry Outcomes Climate, the Boreal Forest, and Moose: A Pilot Project for Scenario Planning to Inform Land and Wildlife Management A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy Using the Virginia Northern Flying Squirrel to Guide Resilient Restoration of Red Spruce in the Central Appalachians Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Developing Climate Calendars to Inform Invasive Species Management in the Northeast Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Developing a Cave Conservation Management Toolbox by Exploring Cave Microclimates and Biodiversity Patterns Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Invasive Forest Insects and Diseases in the Northeast Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Climate Impact Summaries for Rare-Plant Biodiversity in the Southeastern U.S. Conservation Adaptation Planning for Landscape and Climate Change in the Southeast