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In 2010 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Coastal and Marine Geology Program completed three cruises to map the bathymetry of the main channel and shallow intertidal mudflats in the southernmost part of south San Francisco Bay. The three surveys were merged to generate comprehensive maps of Coyote Creek (from Calaveras Point east to the railroad bridge) and Alviso Slough (from the bay to the town of Alviso) to establish baseline bathymetry prior to the breaching of levees adjacent to Alviso and Guadalupe Sloughs as part of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (http://www.southbayrestoration.org). Since 2010 we have conducted four additional surveys to monitor bathymetric change in this region as restoration...
Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change, resulting in rapid changes in status. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a rapid assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge is needed to assess current status and future vulnerability. In this study, we present a method that allows systematic evaluation of potential climate change effects on freshwater fishes, using California as an example. The method uses expert knowledge of the authors, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future...
This dataset contains monthly average hours of fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) per day for North and Central Coastal California. The set of 42 grids has one for each summer month (June, July, August, and September) for each year (1999 - 2009), except for 2 missing months (June 2001 and August 2006) . Grid cell values were calculated using eleven years of hourly, day and night, cloud maps derived from geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) images collected and processed by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA).For more information about this data and the Pacific Coastal Fog Project, see http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/fog (link is external) (link is external) and this article...
Distribution maps of ensemble averages and standard deviations for each species modeled future bioclimatic envelope. These maps demonstrate the diversity of projections from the array of modeled studied by the project. Consists of 200 layers: 100 species (50 bird, 50 plant) 2 stats (avg, std) value is 0..1 suitability.
This set of elevation models was developed to understand current (2010) conditions of San Francisco salt marshes and for input into sea-level rise prediction models. These elevation models were built by interpolating surveyed elevation points. The elevation surveys were conducted with a Leica RX1230 Real-Time Kinematic GPS which is capable of < 2 cm vertical accuracy.
Change in the percentage of watershed area with critical habitat from 2010 to a future time period These maps display the change in the proportion of watershed area that contains critical habitat from 2010 to a future time period for three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Future time periods displayed include 2040, 2070 and 2100. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). Critical habitat is defined as critical priority conservation areas mapped in the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition’s focus area map (http://www.carangeland.org/focusarea.html). Priority conservation areas were defined by The Nature Conservancy as privately-owned rangelands...
Data layers of current and projected suitable habitat for five species: big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis), California gnatcatcher, Ceanothus greggii, Ceanothus verrucosus, and Tecate cypress in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 50 year period. The potential distribution of Tecate cypress was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management...
The raster grids in this dataset show the relative amount of summertime fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) over a decade for North and Central Coastal California on either a monthly or annual basis. Summertime FLCC is calculated as the average FLCC hours per day from an archive of hourly, day and night, June, July, August, and September, 1999 - 2009, GOES (geostationary operational environmental satellite) images collected and processed into ~26, 000 cloud maps by the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA). These decadal average FLCC rasters do not include years 2001 and 2006 due to missing or incomplete data for June 2001 and August 2006.Layers included:Files, Description1 Decadal Summer (average...
Raster datasets developed in the project Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands.This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project “Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands”.The project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and quantifying two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents developed integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland...
Percent change in grassland soil carbon sequestration potential. These maps display the percent change in the potential for grassland soil carbon sequestration for each watershed under three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). Here soil carbon represents soil organic carbon (up to 20 cm in depth). Future change in soil carbon was modeled by the U.S. Geological Survey’s General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) (http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/land_carbon/BGM.asp). Carbon model outputs were produced through the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) national carbon sequestration assessment of ecosystem...
These maps display the magnitude of projected future climate change in relation to the interannual variability in late 20th century CA climate. The maps show the standardized Euclidean distance between the late 20th century climate at each pixel and the future climate at each pixel. The standardization puts all of the climate variables included on the same scale and down weights changes in future climate which have had large year to year variation historically. Warmer colors indicate greater climate change and cooler colors indicate less extreme climate change.
Bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
Marsh accretion was modeled by ESA PWA using the Marsh-98 model, described here. The model assumes that rates of marsh plain elevation change depend on the availability of suspended sediment and organic material, water depth, and duration of inundation periods. If enough suspended sediment is available, then tidal marsh elevations can keep pace with increased inundation. Model outputs were linearly interpolated in 10-cm increments for starting elevations ranging from -3.7 to 1.7 m (relative to mean higher high water, or MHHW), and applied to a composite 5-m elevation grid (see below) for SF Bay. Results for each possible combination of projected sea level rise, sediment and organic material availability, and target...
In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats.To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect plants...
This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project “Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands”.The project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and quantifying two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents developed integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland eco-regions, and disseminated information about future potential threats to high priority conservation areas within the California Rangeland...
Percent change in climatic water deficit relative to the 1981-2010 climate period These maps display the average percent change in climatic water deficit (CWD) from the 1981-2010 climate period to a future climate period for each watershed. Percent change in CWD is provided for two climate projections for each of the three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Future time periods displayed include 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. Watershed boundaries are from the 8-digit Watershed Boundary Dataset (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/huc.html). CWD is defined as potential evapotranspiration minus actual evapotranspiration. This term effectively integrates the combined effects of solar radiation, evapotranspiration, and...
Full Title: Environmental Change Network: Current and Projected VegetationThe current vegetation layer is derived from the vegetation map developed as part of the California Gap Analysis project. The derivation takes the California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR) habitat classification provided in the California Gap Analysis layer, generalizes the classes to a set of broader habitat types, and rasterizes it at 800 meter resolution.The future vegetation layers for both the GFDL and CCSM GCM models are derived using a random forest model of the vegetation classification. The original CWHR classification has been generalized to 12 classes for ease in modeling. Inputs to the model include eight bioclimatic variables...
Water-Wildlife Hotspots: Areas where changes in water availability (recharge plus runoff) and loss of critical habitat coincide. These maps display percent change in water availability relative to the 1981-2010 climate period where 5% or more of watershed area has lost critical habitat. Water availability is defined as recharge plus runoff. Critical habitat is defined as critical priority conservation areas mapped in the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition’s focus area map (http://www.carangeland.org/focusarea.html) (TNC, 2007). Percent change in water availability is provided for two climate projections for each of the three IPCC-SRES scenarios – A1B, A2 and B1. Scenarios of critical habitat loss for years...
A collection of spatial data resources assembled to support the CVLCP partnership efforts, including scenario planning, assessing vulnerabilities, and developing adaptation strategies.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed future scenarios of land use-land cover (LULC) change in the United States as part of a national carbon sequestration assessment required by the U.S. Congress (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007). Future potential demand, or the area of land required for each LULC class, was based on a set of scenarios from three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic et al. 2000): A2 (emphasizes economic development with a regional focus), A1B (emphasizes economic development with a global orientation), and B1 (emphasizes environmental sustainability with a global orientation). To develop LULC change scenarios...