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Understanding San Francisco Bay’s vulnerabilities to sea level rise is important for both biodiversity conservation and for management of public infrastructure. Coastal marshes provide essential ecosystem services such as water filtration and flood abatement while also providing important habitat for species of conservation concern. Improving our understanding of how tidal marsh habitats will be affected by sea level rise is important so that we maximize ecosystem services that coastal marshes provide and ensure that endemic populations of plants and animals persist into the future. For this project, marsh accretion was modeled by ESA PWA (http://www.pwa-ltd.com/index.html) using the Marsh-98 model, described here:...
Current and projected bird distribution and abundance layers, updated with new model that has better inputs. Point Blue Conservation Science assessed the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and salinity changes on San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems. Tidal marshes are naturally resilient to SLR, in that they can build up elevation through the capture of suspended sediment and deposition of organic material (vegetation). Thus, a “bathtub” model approach is not appropriate for assessing impacts to this dynamic habitat. Rather, dynamic accretion potential can be modeled annually based on tidal inundation, sediment availability, and the rate of organic accumulation (related to salinity).Working with researchers at...
This dataset provides a near-real-time estimate of 2017 herbaceous annual cover with an emphasis on annual grass (Boyte and Wylie. 2016. Near-real-time cheatrass percent cover in the Northern Great Basin, USA, 2015. Rangelands 38:278-284.) This estimate was based on remotely sensed enhanced Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (eMODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data gathered through June 19, 2017. This is the second iteration of an early estimate of herbaceous annual cover for 2017 over the same geographic area. The previous dataset used eMODIS NDVI data gathered through May 1 (https://doi.org/10.5066/F7445JZ9). The pixel values for this most recent estimate ranged from 0 to100% with...
Sea level rise (SLR) and disturbances from increased storm activity are expected to diminish coastal habitats available for sea turtle, seabird, shorebird, and beach mouse nesting by removing habitat as well as inundating nests during critical incubation periods. The goal of our proposed research is to evaluate past nesting patterns of fourteen coastal nesting species and predict future effects of sea level rise on nesting beaches along the South Atlantic Bight. Maps of coastal vulnerability to SLR combined with historical data sets of long-term and spatially extensive nesting habitat will lead to models that enhance our understanding of the complex environmental changes occurring from global climate change and...
Species richness indicates the number of different species predicted to be able to occur at a location. Maps show the projected species richness under current climate and two models of future climate conditions. Species richness is calculated by converting the predictions from maxent models into binary maps of presence and absence and summing the maps across all species. Higher values in the maps indicate where more bird species are projected to be able to occur.