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Concerns about the influence of climate change on biota have emerged over the past decade, and responses in species populations and distribution patterns have already been documented (Parmesan 1996, Thomas and Lennon 1999). Current climates and communities will not simply migrate, but rather will re-form in novel ways over time (Fox 2007; Hunter et al. 1988; Williams and Jackson 2007). Due to the uncertainty of future climatic patterns and species responses, enduring features of the landscape (geophysical settings) are appropriate targets of assessment, planning, and conservation (Anderson and Ferree 2010, Beier and Brost 2010, Brost and Beier 2012; Hunter et al. 1988). Only recently have enduring features been...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project integrated existing models of vegetation, disturbance, and permafrost into one complete ecosystem model for the state of Alaska and Northwest Canada.The final synchronized model will integrate existing climate, vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost models to improve understanding of potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change. The project’s (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016) primary goal was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada....
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The Imiq Hydroclimate Database houses hydrologic, climatologic, and soils data collected in Alaska and Western Canada from the early 1900s to the present. This database unifies and preserves numerous data collections that have, until now, been stored in field notebooks, on desktop computers, as well as in disparate databases. Synthesizing and analyzing the large-scale hydroclimate characteristics of this important climatic region have been made easier with this searchable database. The data, originally collected in a Microsoft SQL Server 2008 relational database, has been migrated to an open source PostgreSQL and PostGIS environment. The Imiq Data Portal provides public access to portions of the Imiq Hydroclimate...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ABLATION, ABLATION, ACTIVE LAYER, ACTIVE LAYER, ALBEDO, All tags...
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The Beaufort Sea coast in Arctic Alaska and neighboring northern Canada has recently experienced extreme and accelerated climate change, including a dramatic reduction in summer sea ice. Human systems will likely be impacted through changes to oil industry and community infrastructure currently in place along parts of the coast, to habitat availability for harvested species such as caribou, waterbirds, and anadromous fish, to culturally important landscape elements, and to both recreational and subsistence coastal access. We used literature review and structured interviews to 1) identify current, broad interests for ongoing coastal research in the arctic, 2) identify the best mechanisms and format for communicating...
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Information on the nature and distribution of permafrost is critical to assessing the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change, because thawing permafrost under a warming climate will cause thaw settlement and affect micro-topography, surface water redistribution and groundwater movement, soil carbon balance, trace gas emissions, vegetation changes, and habitat use. While a small-scale regional permafrost map is available, as well as information from numerous site-specific large-scale mapping projects, landscape-level mapping of permafrost characteristics is needed for regional modeling and climate impact assessments. The project addresses this need by: (1) compiling existing soil/permafrost data from available...
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The Terrestrial Environmental Observation Network (TEON) is intended to meet the need for a sustainable environmental observing network for northern Alaska. The TEON plan proposes collection of a time series of specific environmental variables in seven representative watersheds across northern Alaska. The Kuparuk River watershed is central to this plan both because of its location that bisects Alaska’s North Slope and its record of hydroclimatic data and research now surpassing 30-yrs. Nested catchments within and adjacent to this sentinel Arctic river system integrate climate and landscape responses from the Brooks Range foothills (Imnavait Creek and Upper Kuparuk River) to the Arctic Coastal Plain (Putuligayuk...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: AIR TEMPERATURE, AIR TEMPERATURE, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERE, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
Water temperature in lakes and lagoons plays a key role in hydrology, water quality, and habitat suitability for aquatic organisms. The purpose of this project is to provide land and resource managers with information related to the past, present, and future temperature trends in lake surface waters in western Alaska. Through a combination of remote sensing, in situ data collection, model development, we will analyze similarities and differences related to spatial and temporal patterns of lake surface temperatures in western Alaska from 1985 to 2100. ​
Bering Sea storms introduce various environmental conditions that adversely affect human activity and infrastructure in the coastal zone and the ecosystems they depend upon. Storm impacts include interactions with sea ice in all potential states: large floes, shore-fast ice, and incipient sea-ice in frazil or slush state. In particular, sea ice can act to enhance or mitigate the impacts of adverse marine state, even as the event is occurring. Such occurrences should be part of a forecasting regimen, however scientific work has not been conducted on this phenomena, with the result that a physical model describing the formation of slush ice berms does not exist. To arrive at such a model requires visits to and input...
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Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely recognized as among the most important threats to global biodiversity. New analytical approaches are providing improved ability to predict the effects of landscape change on population connectivity at vast spatial extents. This paper presents an analysis of population connectivity for three species of conservation concern [swift fox (Vulpes velox); lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus); massasuaga (Sistrurus catenatus)] across the American Great Plains region. We used factorial least-cost path and resistant kernel analyses to predict effects of landscape conditions on corridor network connectivity. Our predictions of population connectivity provide testable...
Categories: Data, Project, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, CO-01, CO-02, CO-03, CO-04, All tags...
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Landscape conservation design is an opportunity for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) to work collaboratively with partners to develop and implement a landscape approach that ensures our priority resources will have the capacity to cope with and respond to future change. This research models patterns of climate connectivity to map linkages among protected areas that promote long-term landscape connectivity across Alaska and northwest Canada under projected climate change. Using spatial data on current land use and climate patterns, and circuit theory-based connectivity modeling approaches, this research identifies corridors that follow climate gradients and avoid human modified...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: ArcGIS Map Package, Downloadable; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, Conservation Design, Conservation Design, Conservation NGOs, All tags...
Permafrost thaw can be a major driver of landscape change. Regions in Western Alaska are highly vulnerable to such thawing due to the high ice content of the soils and the lack of thermal monitoring in this region has limited our ability to understand current thermal state and establish thawing rates. This study established a permafrost monitoring network in this region, providing a baseline of permafrost thermal regimes for assessing future change at a total of 26 automated monitoring stations. Stations have collected year-round temperature data from the active layer and the permafrost starting from the summer of 2011. The strong correspondence between spatial variability in permafrost thermal regime and an existing...
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This project provides a better understanding how linkages among surface-water availability, connectivity, and temperature mediate habitat and trophic dynamics of the Fish Creek Watershed (FCW). These interrelated processes form a shifting mosaic of freshwater habitats across the landscape that can be classified, mapped, understood, and modeled in response to past and future climate and land-use change in a spatial and temporal context. Developing scenarios of freshwater habitat change in this context provides managers and scientists with a flexible template to evaluate a range of potential responses to climate and land-use change. Applying this approach in the FCW is made feasible because of the availability of...
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, All tags...
Micronesia’s island shorelines are threatened by multiple stressors including climate change impacts such as rising seas and changing storm patterns; as well as local disturbances like dredging, construction and mangroves overharvesting. There is a pressing need to increase the long-term resilience and adaptive capacity of Micronesia’s mangrove resources. This project intends to create an island-wide mangrove adaptation and management plan based on the compilation and application of multiple ongoing efforts connected to mangrove conservation in Pohnpei. The two main objectives are to: (1) Develop a consensus-based island-wide mangrove adaptation and management plan. The outcome of this objective is the adoption...
This project will produce an existing vegetation type map at 30m resolution for the entire Western Alaska LCC region. The lack of a consistently mapped vegetation data layer for Alaska has been identified as a primary road block for many conservation and management entities across the state. This project will address a number of the LCC conservation goals by addressing a baseline science need that is the foundation for current and future project within the region.
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Managers typically estimate wildlife abundance using surveys within a timeframe that favors increased detectability; however, the ability to account for probabilities of inclusion, detection, and/or presence within a given sampling area is often limited. Cranes provide a good opportunity to research count accuracy because they are large, conspicuous, and often congregate during part of the year, typically on staging areas (i.e., fall and spring) or on wintering grounds. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (1) to evaluate how environmental factors influence crane movement in and out of crane survey areas to identify the best window of availability for annual survey counts, and (2) to evaluate environmental...
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The purpose of the research is to develop a storm surge model for the YK Delta area and to apply it to determine biological impacts of storm surges in the current and future climates. This research is needed as storm surges are expected to be more frequent and more severe in the YK Delta area due to climate change and sea level rise. The biological impacts in the YK Delta due to the changed storm surges could be extreme. With the model, we will study 10 storms over the 1980 – 2011 time period. Model output will be used to determine the recurrence interval for the individual storms. With the model output from individual storms, an inundation index (time-integral of water level during a storm) will be calculated....
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ARCHAEOLOGICAL AREAS, ARCHAEOLOGICAL AREAS, Academics & scientific researchers, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, All tags...
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Assessing Future Energy Development across the Appalachian LCC used models that combined data on energy development trends and identified where these may intersect with important natural resource and ecosystem services to give a more comprehensive picture of what potential energy development could look like in the Appalachians. Ultimately this information is intended to support dialogue and conservation on how to effectively avoid, minimize, and offset impacts from energy development to important natural areas and the valuable services they provide.A final report from the study outlines the major findings of the potential footprint from coal, wind, and natural gas development. Models that depicts the probability...
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The Arctic LCC has partnered with USGS to complete a feasibility study that will review current and past efforts to monitor thermokarst at broad spatial and temporal scales, compare relevance, cost, and strengths/weaknesses of the various approaches and techniques. Researchers have outlined potential study designs for monitoring thermokarst events that emphasize processes affecting large areas, or with a disproportionately large impact on fish and wildlife habitat quality. Information available in the final report includes: 1) review existing thermokarst monitoring methods via a literature review, 2) provide a brief description and review of thermokarst landforms and processes associated with permafrost degradation...
map background search result map search result map Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Summary and Initial Evaluation of Enduring Features Information for the Conterminous USA, with Evaluation of Potential Use for Ecoregion Assessment Assessing Future Energy Development Across the Appalachians Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada TEON: Terrestrial Environmental Observation Network Imiq - Hydroclimate Database and Data Portal FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Permafrost Database Development, Characterization, and Mapping for Northern Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Storm Surge Impacts on Biological Resources in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Development and Application of an Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska Thermokarst Monitoring at the Landscape Level: a Feasibility Study Linking Ecological Processes and Animal Movements to Inform Timing of Long-term Surveys of a Migratory Game Bird FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Storm Surge Impacts on Biological Resources in the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities TEON: Terrestrial Environmental Observation Network Climate change and connectivity: Assessing landscape and species vulnerability Thermokarst Monitoring at the Landscape Level: a Feasibility Study Permafrost Database Development, Characterization, and Mapping for Northern Alaska Assessing Future Energy Development Across the Appalachians Linking Ecological Processes and Animal Movements to Inform Timing of Long-term Surveys of a Migratory Game Bird Summary and Initial Evaluation of Enduring Features Information for the Conterminous USA, with Evaluation of Potential Use for Ecoregion Assessment Imiq - Hydroclimate Database and Data Portal Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada