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A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species....
Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in...
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FY2014Land management agencies seek to understand how organisms use the landscape in order to develop management strategies that maintain healthy, resilient communities that have the ecological and evolutionary potential to respond to climate change. An ideal approach to understanding how organisms move through the landscape is by inferring ongoing and historic movements from patterns of genetic continuity that characterize regional sets of populations. From patterns of genetic connectivity we can infer the habitat and landscape characteristics that facilitate animal movement and species range shifts over both short and long timescales. Knowing the spatial distribution of critical linkages or corridors allows conservation...
This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
On November 4, 2016, Dr. Peter Adler, Utah State University, discussed how sagebrush sensitivity to climate change varies across the region and the strengths and weaknesses of various climate modeling approaches. Healthy big sagebrush habitat is essential for the persistence of many high value conservation species across the western US. To gain confidence in predictions of climate change impacts on existing populations of big sagebrush, a research team from Utah State University compared output from four modeling approaches, each based on very different data and assumptions. These models largely agree that rising temperatures will decrease sagebrush cover and biomass in the warmest portions of the region, but increase...
On December 5, 2016, Marjorie Matocq, University of Nevada Reno, and John Kasbohm, Greater Sheldon-Hart Mountain National Wildlife Refuge, discussed functional continuity of habitat for the pygmy rabbit.Pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis) are habitat specialists of sagebrush communities throughout the Great Basin. Overgrazing, altered fire regimes, invasive plants and energy development are expected to impact natural patterns of dispersal and gene flow among wildlife populations in sagebrush ecosystems, including pygmy rabbits. In turn, these impacts may reduce the adaptive potential and persistence of local populations. This study seeks to identify the spatial distribution of genetic variation in pygmy rabbits....
    map background search result map search result map Landscape Connectivity of a Sagebrush Obligate: Functional Continuity of Habitat for the Pygmy Rabbit Landscape Connectivity of a Sagebrush Obligate: Functional Continuity of Habitat for the Pygmy Rabbit