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Cheatgrass began invading the Great Basin about 100 years ago, changing large parts of the landscape from a rich, diverse ecosystem to one where a single invasive species dominates. Cheatgrass dominated areas experience more fires that burn more land than in native ecosystems, resulting in economic and resource losses. Therefore, the reduced production, or absence, of cheatgrass in previously invaded areas during years of adequate precipitation could be seen as a windfall. However, this cheatgrass dieoff phenomenon creates other problems for land managers like accelerated soil erosion, loss of early spring food supply for livestock and wildlife, and unknown recovery pathways. We used satellite data and scientific...
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The Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment project (an FY2012 NW CSC funded project), resulted in several datasets describing projected changes in climate, hydrology and vegetation for the 21st century over the Northwestern US. The raw data is available in netCDF format, which is a standard data file format for weather forecasting/climate change/GIS applications. However, the sheer size of these datasets and the specific file format (netCDF) for data access pose significant barriers to data access for many users. This is a particular challenge for many natural/cultural resource managers and others working on conservation efforts in the Pacific Northwest. The goal of this project was to increase...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. We mapped these future projections and integrated them into an existing web-based tool (http://data.pointblue.org/apps/nwcsc/) to allow managers and planners to access and...
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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Explore climate change impacts on vegetation across the Desert and Southern Rockies LCCs using historical monitoring data collected from 23 sites across the Sonoran, Chihuahuan, Mojave and Colorado Plateau deserts for 30-50 years. This data will then be combined with ecosystem water balance model simulations to establish features of water availability critical for plant species response. Results will allow managers to identify species and communities at risk under future climate scenarios based on predicted changes in plant water availability. Due to the high variability in soils, incorporating a detailed understanding of soil water availability beyond bioclimatic envelope approaches in the desert Southwest is essential...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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This project links climate, hydrological, and ecological changes over the next 30 years in a Great Basin watershed. In recent years, climate variability on annual and decadal time scales has been recognized as greater than commonly perceived with increasing impacts on ecosystems and available water resources. Changes in vegetation distribution, composition and productivity resulting from climate change affect plant water use, which in turn can alter stream flow, groundwater and eventually available water resources. To better understand these links, project researchers implemented two computer-based numeric models in the Cleve Creek watershed in the Schell Creek Range, east of Ely, Nevada. The application of the...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Cleve Creek, Climate, Completed, All tags...
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The Schitsu'umsh people (Coeur d’Alene Tribe of Idaho) have an intimate relationship with their landscape and a rich knowledge of how to interact with the environment in a way that benefits human, plant, and animal communities alike. Such knowledge and practices can provide valuable insight as to how tribal and non-tribal resource managers, communities, and governments can best respond to the effects of a changing climate. This project was a pilot effort to collect and translate indigenous knowledge and practices into shareable formats. Researchers developed documents, images, lesson plans, and innovative, interactive 3-D virtual reality simulations that effectively convey Schitsu’umsh knowledge and practices and...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.
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Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified...
Most natural resource managers, planners and policy makers are now dependent upon spatially explicit environmental suitability and spatial allocation analyses to inform policy and management decisions. However, staff across agencies has been unable to stay current on understanding and applying these new data, tools and analyses. Currently, this information may be underutilized or used inappropriately, which could result in poor decisions. Two training curricula were developed – one for managers and one for GIS analysts – on current best practices for developing and using spatial information to support conservation decision making. The training materials are open-source and widely distributed to California LCC stakeholders.
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Whitebark pine is a high-elevation, important tree species that provides critical habitat for wildlife and supplies valued ecosystem services. These trees currently face multiple threats, including attack by the mountain pine beetle, which has recently killed whitebark pines over much of the western U.S. Climate is an important factor in these outbreaks, and future warming is expected to affect epidemics. Our project developed statistical models of outbreaks in whitebark pine for three regions: the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the Northern U.S. Rocky Mountains, and the Cascade Range. We used these models to understand climate/beetle outbreak relationships, evaluate climatic causes of recent outbreaks, and estimate...
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In California, increased wildfire activity has been linked to decreasing snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Not only has this translated into a longer fire season, but reduced snowpack has cascading effects that impact streamflow, water supplies, agricultural productivity, and ecosystems. California receives 80% of its precipitation during the winter, so mountain snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state’s water supply. One factor that affects the amount of winter precipitation (and therefore snowpack) in California is the North Pacific Jet (NPJ)—a current of strong, high altitude winds that occur over the northern Pacific Ocean. Winters when the NPJ is located further north than normal are drier than...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Report; Tags: 2013, CA, CA-wide, CASC, Completed, All tags...
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Changing climate conditions have been identified as a major threat to the sustainability and availability of water resources in the Southwestern U.S. Long-term decreases in precipitation can lead to reductions in regional groundwater levels and loss of groundwater storage in aquifers for some communities. Reduced precipitation can also lead to lower water levels in streams and losses in the vegetation that grows alongside riverbanks. The goal of this project was to identify how hydrologic systems in the Southwest might respond to changes in climate and the degree to which this response is dependent on the characteristics of the hydrologic system. To do this, researchers developed a tool that simulates how quickly...
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Tribes in the Pacific Northwest rely on plants for food, medicine, and material for culturally important items (e.g., baskets, cages and traps, ceremonial items, tools, and musical instruments). Elders and wisdomkeepers from tribes of the Point No Point Treaty Council have expressed deep concerns about the potential effects of climate change on plant species of key cultural significance, particularly those located in tribal gathering areas on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. This project was a direct response to tribal concerns about the loss of culturally significant plants from tribal gathering areas. Researchers conducted interviews with elders from the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe to identify eight plants...
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Wild berries are a valued traditional food for tribes of the Chugachmiut Tribal Consortium (Chenega Bay, Eyak, Nanwalek, Port Graham, Qutekcak, Tatitlek, and Valdez) in the rural Chugach region of south-central Alaska. Berries supply essential nutrients that prevent heart disease and cancer, are used for medicinal purposes, and are the only sweet food in the traditional Native diet. Hence, berries have both nutritional and cultural significance. From 2008 to 2012, wild berry populations in the Chugach region were decimated by an unexpected outbreak of moths, thought to have been brought about by shifting climate (i.e., warmer temperatures allowed a greater number of moths to survive the winter). This outbreak...
The California Invasive Plant Council (Cal-IPC) developed a “risk mapping” approach that combines comprehensive distribution maps with maps of current and future suitable range to show where each (invasive) species is likely to spread. The distribution maps are based on a new dataset created through a major campaign to collect expert opinion data from local resource managers across the state. From this dataset, Cal-IPC recently completed risk maps and management recommendations for 43 invasive plant species in the Sierra Nevada. The proposed project will build an online tool for these data. The tool will allow natural resource managers to generate risk maps and summary statistics for areas they select, and to determine...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2010, 2012, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...


map background search result map search result map Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks and Subsequent Threats to Whitebark Pine Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Cheatgrass Die-Off Areas in the Northern Great Basin Improving Groundwater Supply Forecasting in the Southwestern U.S. The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Understanding and Projecting Changes in Climate, Hydrology, and Ecology in the Great Basin for the Next 30 Years The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Vulnerability of Culturally Significant Plants on the Olympic Peninsula Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Collecting and Applying Schitsu’umsh Indigenous Knowledge and Practices to Climate Change Decision Making Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Vulnerability of Culturally Significant Plants on the Olympic Peninsula Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Cheatgrass Die-Off Areas in the Northern Great Basin Improving Groundwater Supply Forecasting in the Southwestern U.S. Collecting and Applying Schitsu’umsh Indigenous Knowledge and Practices to Climate Change Decision Making Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks and Subsequent Threats to Whitebark Pine The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches