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Estimates of the probability of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates are the center of each 1 km grid cell.
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Forests are of tremendous ecological and economic importance. They provide natural places for recreation, clean drinking water, and important habitats for fish and wildlife. However, the warmer temperatures and harsher droughts in the west that are related to climate change are causing die-offs of many trees. Outbreaks of insects, like the mountain pine beetle, that kill trees are also more likely in warmer, drier conditions. To maintain healthy and functioning forest ecosystems, one action forest managers can take is to make management decisions that will help forests adapt to future climate change. However, adaptation is a process based on genetic change and few tools are currently available for managers to use...
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The Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment project (an FY2012 NW CSC funded project), resulted in several datasets describing projected changes in climate, hydrology and vegetation for the 21st century over the Northwestern US. The raw data is available in netCDF format, which is a standard data file format for weather forecasting/climate change/GIS applications. However, the sheer size of these datasets and the specific file format (netCDF) for data access pose significant barriers to data access for many users. This is a particular challenge for many natural/cultural resource managers and others working on conservation efforts in the Pacific Northwest. The goal of this project was to increase...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. We mapped these future projections and integrated them into an existing web-based tool (http://data.pointblue.org/apps/nwcsc/) to allow managers and planners to access and...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1608-2): Many recent changes in tree species distributions, mortality, and growth rates have been linked to changes in climate. Managing forests in the face of climate change will require a basic understanding of which tree species will be most vulnerable to climate change and in what ways they will be vulnerable. We assessed the relative vulnerability to climate change of 11 tree species in western North America using a multivariate approach to quantify elements of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change, and the capacity to adapt to climate change. Our assessment was based on a combination of expert knowledge, published studies,...
Abstract (from http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/1/2017/): The phase of precipitation when it reaches the ground is a first-order driver of hydrologic processes in a watershed. The presence of snow, rain, or mixed-phase precipitation affects the initial and boundary conditions that drive hydrological models. Despite their foundational importance to terrestrial hydrology, typical phase partitioning methods (PPMs) specify the phase based on near-surface air temperature only. Our review conveys the diversity of tools available for PPMs in hydrological modeling and the advancements needed to improve predictions in complex terrain with large spatiotemporal variations in precipitation phase. Initially, we review...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.1396/full): Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western US, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood...
Fish and wildlife are at the heart of Washington State’s rich ecological, economic, and cultural heritage. The incredible diversity of species and the habitats that sustain them helps to define Washington’s distinct character and in part reflects the long standing conservation ethic of its citizens – one that has endured the challenges posed by a growing human population, increasing demands for land, water, and other natural resources, and now the very real threat of climate change. A growing body of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is already having a significant impact on natural systems across the region, and further changes are likely in the coming decades (CIG 2009; Mote and Salathé 2010)....
Three main folders are associated with this readme file. They are: 1. "Files", which contains two subfolders, "Dieoffs" and "PercentCover". a) The "Dieoff" subfolder contains every year's modeled cheatgrass dieoff estimates and their associated files, including a layer file. The dieoff estimates’ file format is ERDASImagine signed 16-bit. Values < -100 are underperforming relative to weather and site conditions and > 100 are performing relative to weather and site conditions. b) The "PercentCover" subfolder contains every year's modeled cheatgrass percent cover estimates and their associated files, including a layer file. The cheatgrass percent cover format is ERDAS Imagine signed 8-bit....
This short-term project responded to concerns about the disappearance of culturally important plants in traditional gathering areas expressed by elders of the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe (PGST) (Olympic Peninsula, WA), both currently and in response to continuing climate change. A formal Memorandum of Understanding was developed between Oregon State University and the PGST to guide this culturally sensitive research. We recommend this formal approach to researchers considering tribal partnerships in order to ensure expectations of all parties are clearly outlined. During formal interviews and informal conversation, PGST elders mentioned 37 plants, of which eight terrestrial species and a group of marine taxa were...
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Invasive species have increasingly severe consequences for ecosystems and human communities alike. The ecological impacts of invasive species are often irreversible, and include the loss of native species and the spread of disease. Implications for human communities include damaged water transportation systems, reduced crop yields, reduced forage quality for livestock, and widespread tree death - which can lead to increases in wildfire and loss of biodiversity. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the spread of invasive species, making this a key management and conservation concern across the United States. This project will synthesize what we know about how climate change impacts the spread of invasive...
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Climate change impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest are predicted to have transformational effects on agriculture. Loss of winter snow pack, reduced summer stream flows, and increased summer temperatures are all phenomena that have already been observed, and are expected to worsen over this century. Research is ongoing in the Northwest to understand agriculture practices that might allow farmers to prepare for these climate change impacts. One potential technique is the use of biochars (charcoal made from decomposition of organic matter at high temperatures in the absence of oxygen), which can be used as a soil amendment that can increase soil moisture retention, improve agricultural yields, and hold...
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The Schitsu'umsh people (Coeur d’Alene Tribe of Idaho) have an intimate relationship with their landscape and a rich knowledge of how to interact with the environment in a way that benefits human, plant, and animal communities alike. Such knowledge and practices can provide valuable insight as to how tribal and non-tribal resource managers, communities, and governments can best respond to the effects of a changing climate. This project was a pilot effort to collect and translate indigenous knowledge and practices into shareable formats. Researchers developed documents, images, lesson plans, and innovative, interactive 3-D virtual reality simulations that effectively convey Schitsu’umsh knowledge and practices and...
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Phenology, or the timing of the annual cycles of plants and animals, is extremely sensitive to changes in climate. We know that plants and animals may adjust the timing of certain phenological events, such as tree flowering or migration, based on changes in weather. However, it’s important that we also understand how the timing of phenological events is changing over longer time frames, as climate conditions change. While some species appear to be adjusting to the increase in unseasonal temperatures, drought, and extreme storms that have come with climate change, not all species are responding at the same speed or in the same ways. This can disrupt the manner in which species interact and the way that ecosystems...
Aspen forests are “biological hotspots” in the western United States that support numerous wildlife species. Aspen ecosystems are also economically and socially important, providing high quality forage for livestock and game species (e.g. elk), as well as drawing tourists and improving local economies. Aspen ecosystems are in decline across portions of the western U.S., which is thought to be partly due to drought, and recent research suggests that future climate projected for the western U.S. will be even less capable of supporting aspen. We used different research methods to investigate key controls on aspen growth and survivability in the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Specifically, we projected the...
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Estimates of the probability of mortality in whitebark pine from mountain pine beetles as determined from a logistic generalized additive model of the presence of mortality as functions of the number of trees killed last year, the percent whitebark pine in each cell, minimum winter temperature, average fall temperature, average April - Aug temperature, and cummulative current and previous year summer precipitation. Analysis was done at a 1 km grid cell resolution. Data are a list of points in comma separated text format. Point coordinates are the center of each 1km grid cell.
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In the Pacific Northwest, coastal ecosystems are highly productive areas that support millions of migratory waterbirds, shellfish, salmon and related fish. These species depend on food and habitats provided by estuaries (coastal tidal areas where streams and rivers flow into the ocean) for successful migration and breeding. Climate change effects such as drought, sea-level rise, and changing freshwater flow, precipitation, and temperatures will alter these important habitats. This study examined how changing ocean and freshwater patterns and conditions will influence estuary habitats. The main goal was to provide scientific support for future planning efforts and conservation of natural resources found in coastal...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192315002142): Physically-based models are a powerful tool to help understand interactions of vegetation, atmospheric dynamics, and hydrology, and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of land cover, management, hydrometeorology, and climate variability on ecosystem processes. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate recent modifications and further refinements to a multi-layer plant canopy model for simulating temperature and water vapor within three diverse forest canopies: a 4.5-m tall aspen thicket, a 15-m tall aspen canopy, and a 60-m tall Douglas fir canopy. Performance of the model was strongly related to source strength and profile stability...
Since January 2011, the EROS team studying cheatgrass in the Great Basin has made significant strides developing datasets that identify cheatgrass extents and abundances and cheatgrass dieoff in and around the Winnemucca, Nevada area. Additionally, the team, in partnership with the BLM, received money from the USGS’ Northwest Climate Science Center to expand our cheatgrass dieoff study area to most of the northern Great Basin. In the Winnemucca area, we developed a regression-tree model, trained on Peterson’s cheatgrass maps, that generated a time series (2000 – 2010) of cheatgrass extents and abundances and then analyzed the relationships between this cheatgrass time series and spatially explicit site-specific...
map background search result map search result map Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Cascades Study Area Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Collecting and Applying Schitsu’umsh Indigenous Knowledge and Practices to Climate Change Decision Making Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Understanding the Impacts of Ecological Drought on Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest Assessing the Use of Biochar for Drought Resilience and Crop Productivity The Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology: A Synthesis and Path Forward for Adaptive Management in the Pacific Northwest Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Using Genetic Information to Understand Drought Tolerance and Bark Beetle Resistance in Whitebark Pine Forests Understanding the Impacts of Ecological Drought on Estuaries in the Pacific Northwest Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Cascades Study Area Collecting and Applying Schitsu’umsh Indigenous Knowledge and Practices to Climate Change Decision Making Probability of Whitebark Pine Mortality from Mountain Pine Beetle, 1997-2009, Northern Rockies Study Area Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Integrated Scenarios Tools: Improving the Accessibility of the Integrated Scenarios Data The Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology: A Synthesis and Path Forward for Adaptive Management in the Pacific Northwest Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Assessing the Use of Biochar for Drought Resilience and Crop Productivity Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin