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A beautiful plant found only on Haleakala may become rarer. A recent study coauthored by UH researcher Paul Krushelnycky shows changing climate patterns allowing fog and rain to reach higher elevations are threatening the plant but he cautions all is not lost. He joined us in our studio to tell us more. Paul is currently Assistant Researcher, at the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources at the University of Hawaii in Manoa.
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Dominant Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands".
Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0088.1): A comprehensive understanding of the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal patterns in cloud cover frequency over the Hawaiian Islands was developed using high-resolution image data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The Terra and Aqua MODIS cloud mask products, which provide the confidence that a given 1-km pixel is unobstructed by cloud, were obtained for the entire MODIS time series (10-plus years) over the main Hawaiian Islands. Monthly statistics were generated from the daily cloud mask data, including mean cloud cover...
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park".
A new study published in Climate Change Responses by University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers shows how shifting atmospheric circulation patterns that may be caused by climate change are threatening populations of the iconic silversword on Haleakalā. The native plant is found nowhere else in the world. Paul Krushelnycky of the UH Mānoa Department of Plant and Environmental Protection Sciences and his co-authors researched the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation on populations of silverswords, using 80 years of data records. The team found that Haleakalā silversword numbers have declined about 60 percent since 1990 and that this decline coincides with lower rainfall in the area,...
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Agriculture and agroforestry (tree cultivation) are important activities for the Marshall Islands and other small islands to ensure food security and human health. The Marshallese have a long tradition of interplanting food-producing trees such as coconuts, breadfruit, and pandanus with bananas and root and vegetable crops. Locally grown food crops support community self-sufficiency, promote good nutrition, and can also serve as windbreaks and stabilize shorelines to lessen storm damage and erosion. However, climate change is posing serious challenges for growers, as they struggle to adapt to climate impacts including saltwater intrusion, changing precipitation and temperature patterns, and the spread of invasive...
This website provides access to a broad range of information related to seasonal climate variability in the Republic of the Marshall Isalnds. It includes a quick-look at current and future conditions for a range of climate indicators, direct access to more detailed outlook-related information from stations and statellites, and products that place this information in a histrorical context. It also includes links to addtional sources of information.
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems".
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As elevation increases, both temperature and moisture availability decrease. In many parts of the world, this decrease in temperature is a limiting factor for vegetation—at certain elevations, the temperature becomes too cold for plants to survive. However in the tropics, moisture availability may play a more important role than temperature in determining the altitude at which forests can grow. For example on Haleakalā, a volcano on the Hawaiian Island of Mauʻi, the forest line is not found at the same elevation everywhere, as you would expect if it were controlled by temperature. Rather, the forest line is highest in the wetter eastern-most end and lower on the drier, western end of the volcano. Research also...
The 37 islands of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are low-lying atolls and islands, making the country extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The goal of this research was to provide easilyaccessible decision-making tools for managers, decision-makers and the public to assist in planning for agroforestry in the face of increasing drought and sea level rise (SLR). A team of researchers and climate change adaptation specialists from the RMI and the U.S. was responsible for the effort. Although the RMI is heavily reliant on imported food, local foods are still important in providing nutrients lacking in imported foods and has cultural importance. The role of plants in stabilizing shorelines is increasingly...
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant species’ habitats will change over the next hundred years in order to manage these resources effectively. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) where current managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitat in the future as climate changes. Expanding invasive species’ distributions under future climate conditions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective...
While the iconic Haleakalā silversword plant made a strong recovery from early 20th-century threats, it has now entered a period of substantial climate-related decline. New research published this week warns that global warming may have severe consequences for the silversword in its native habitat.
Abstract: Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful...
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Precipitation in Hawaiʻi’s higher elevation upland areas provides needed water to both people and ecosystems. Once it reaches the ground, rain can either run off and contribute to water flow in streams, or it can infiltrate into the ground and provide water for plants and recharge aquifers and groundwater. The exact route that water takes is controlled by many factors, including the duration and intensity of rainfall, the topography of the land, soil properties, and vegetation. The introduction and spread of invasive plants and animals in Hawaiian forests, which alters the water-use and soil characteristics of ecosystems, can have large impacts on downstream water users. Increased demand and competition for limited...
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On Hawai‘i’s mountains, cloud droplets, propelled by strong winds, are deposited on plants, where they accumulate and drip to the ground, adding water over and above that supplied by rainfall. Prior studies show that the amount of intercepted cloud water is substantial, and variable from place to place. Estimates of the spatial patterns of cloud water interception (CWI), the fog-related effects on plants, and the contributions of fog to groundwater recharge and surface water flows are needed to better understand the water cycle and predict effects of climate change on water supply and ecosystems. We will make measurements of fog, wind, fog interception, soil moisture, and fog effects on plant water use and plant...
There is a broad consensus within the scientific community that global climate is undergoing a comparatively rapid change. Since many plants and animals depend on specific types of climate, it is imperative to understand: (1) the details of species’ climatic preferences; (2) how climates may change in the future; and (3) how species may respond to these changes. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an increasingly important tool to address conservation biology and global change issues. As Fortini and colleagues described in their largest vulnerability assessment in the US, SDMs provide critical information on biological refuges and potential future shifts in species ranges. In addition, climate changes could alter...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD021322/abstract): Trends in downwelling global solar irradiance were evaluated at high-elevation sites on the island of Maui, Hawai‘i. Departures from monthly means were assessed for the 6 month Hawaiian wet and dry seasons over the period 1988 to 2012. Linear regression analysis was used to characterize trends in each season. For the dry season (May–October), statistically significant (p ≤ 0.05) positive trends of 9–18 W m−2 (3–6%) per decade were found at all four high-elevation stations tested. Wet season trends were not significant, except at the highest-elevation station, which had a significant negative trend. No consistent trends in aerosol concentrations...
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Climate change in Hawaiʻi is expected to result in increasing temperatures and varying precipitation through the twenty-first century. Already, high elevation areas have experienced rapidly increasing temperatures and there has been an increase in the frequency of drought across the Islands. These climatic changes could have significant impacts on Hawaiʻi’s plants and animals. Changes in temperature and moisture may make current habitat no longer suitable for some species, and could allow invasive species to spread into new areas. Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park is home to 23 species of endangered vascular plants and 15 species of endangered trees. Understanding how climate change may impact the park’s plants...
map background search result map search result map Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Developing an Agroforestry Dashboard for the Marshall Islands Measurement of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Climate Conditions and Ecosystem Responses in Hawaiʻi Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park Changes in Water Flow through Hawaiian Forests due to Invasive Species and Changing Rainfall Patterns Cloud Water Interception in Hawai‘i - Part 1: Understanding the Impact of Fog on Groundwater and Ecosystems and Future Changes to these Processes Developing an Agroforestry Dashboard for the Marshall Islands