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This paper considers the risk of drought and develops drought scenarios for use in the study of severe sustained drought in the Southwestern United States. The focus is on the Colorado River Basin and regions to which Colorado River water is exported, especially southern California, which depends on water from the Colorado River. Drought scenarios are developed using estimates of unimpaired historic streamflow as well as reconstructions of streamflow based on tree ring widths. Drought scenarios in the Colorado River Basin are defined on the basis of annual flow at Lees Ferry. The risk, in terms of return period, of the drought scenarios developed, is assessed using stochastic models. Published in Journal of the...
Summary There is convincing evidence that land use/land cover (LULC) change has contributed to increasing discharge in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) but key details remain unresolved. In this study, we extend our previous work (Zhang and Schilling, 2006) to quantify how much of the increasing discharge was due to LULC change. We examined daily streamflow for the 1890–2003 period from the US Geological Survey stream gage at Keokuk, Iowa and compiled county agricultural statistics for soybean production in the watershed above the gage to quantify how much of the change in the relation of discharge to precipitation was due to increased soybean cultivation. By allowing the slope of the discharge–precipitation...
We compared streamflow in basins under the combined impacts of an upland dam and groundwater pumping withdrawals, by examining streamflow in the presence and absence of each impact. As a qualitative analysis, inter-watershed streamflow comparisons were performed for several rivers flowing into the east side of the Central Valley, CA. Results suggest that, in the absence of upland dams supporting large reservoirs, some reaches of these rivers might develop ephemeral streamflow in late summer. As a quantitative analysis, we conducted a series of streamflow/groundwater simulations (using MODFLOW-2000 plus the streamflow routing package, SFR1) for a representative hypothetical watershed, with an upland dam and groundwater...
Abstract: We examine long-term streamflow and mass balance data from two Alaskan glaciers located in climatically distinct basins: Gulkana Glacier, a continental glacier located in the Alaska Range, and Wolverine Glacier, a maritime glacier located in the Kenai Mountains. Over the 1966–2011 study interval, both glaciers lost mass, primarily as a result of summer warming, and streamflow increased in both basins. We estimate total glacier runoff via summer mass balance and quantify the fraction of runoff related to annual mass imbalances. In both climates, annual (net) mass balance contributes, on average, less than 20 % of total streamflow, substantially less than the fraction related to summer mass loss (>50 %),...