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Journal Article: Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Artemisia, Completed, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, All tags... Great Basin, Great Basin, LCC Network Science Catalog, Report, State agencies, big sagebrush, biota, climate change, correlative models, environment, location, model comparison, modeling, process-based models, sagebrush, vegetation change, Fewer tags Journal Article: The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Artemisia, Completed, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, All tags... Great Basin, Great Basin, LCC Network Science Catalog, Report, State agencies, big sagebrush, biota, climate change, correlative models, environment, location, model comparison, modeling, process-based models, sagebrush, vegetation change, Fewer tags Future Spotted Owl Habitat Scenarios, Northwest Washington Study Area, 2007-2096 The following files are designed to be run using the Path Landscape Model software, version 3.0.4. Later versions of the software cannot run these files. To get a copy of this software, please contact Apex RMS at path@apexrms.com. 1) Path models MUST be run with the provided .MCM and .trd mulitplier files to apply the required transition probability adjustments for procesess such as insect outbreaks, wildfire, and climate change trends. Each Path database is set up with three folders: - The 'Common' folder contains a single Path scenario (also named 'Common'). The Transitions tab within the Common scenario contains the climate-smart STM. - The 'Multipliers' folder contains multipliers specific to each ownership-allocation... Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable; Tags: Birds, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, All tags... Landscapes, Northwest CASC, Pacific Coast, Pacific Northwest, Stream temperature, Washington, Wildlife and Plants, climate change, land management, state and transition modeling, vegetation change, vulnerability assessment, wildlife habitat, Fewer tags Soil Vulnerability to Future Climate Change in the Southern Rockies LCC, with Implications for Vegetation Change and Water Cycle The Conservation Biology Institute is developing a tool that managers in all watersheds of the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative can use to project the effects of climate change on soil vulnerability conditions and help resource managers develop appropriate strategies to mitigate negative climate impacts.Specifically, they will develop a spatially-explicit soil vulnerability index for the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative that can be used to forecast short-term response of plants to current drought conditions and test a vegetation model of plant response to drought.Conservation Biology Institute will use the soil vulnerability index to compare historical and future simulations... Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: AZ-01, AZ-04, Applications and Tools, Arizona, CO-02, All tags... CO-03, CO-05, Colorado, Conservation Planning, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, Four Corners, GIS, GIS, Green River Basin, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Map, NM-01, NM-02, NM-03, New Mexico, Project, SRLCC, SRLCC, State agencies, Tribes, UT-01, UT-02, UT-03, Upper Rio Grande, Utah, Vulnerability Assessment, Wyoming, climate change, climate change, completed, soil vulnerability, soil vulnerability, vegetation change, vegetation change, water cycling, water cycling, Fewer tags The Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection Under Climate Change (Not listed in the LCC Science Catalog due to Desert LCC co-funding and catalog administering) In the desert Southwest, changes in species composition, abundance, and distribution that may occur with climate change have significant implications for management of natural resources. These changes include: the extirpation or introduction of species, losses of biodiversity, shifts in structure and function of ecosystems and the services they provide, changes in wildlife habitat, invasion of non-native species, and changes in fire regimes. For planning, mitigation, and adaption, land managers would be greatly aided by knowing, in advance, which plant species, functional types, and assemblages will change in response to climate change so that monitoring and mitigation measures can focus on those resources. FY2012In... Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: AZ-01, AZ-04, Arizona, Arizona, CO-02, All tags... CO-03, CO-05, Colorado, Decision Support, Federal resource managers, Informing Conservation Delivery, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, NM-01, NM-02, NM-03, New Mexico, New Mexico, Project, SRLCC, SRLCC, State agencies, Tribes, UT-01, UT-02, UT-03, Utah, climate change, climate change, completed, desert, desert, ecohydrology, ecohydrology, historic patterns, historic patterns, plants, plants, soil water, soil water, vegetation change, vegetation change, water availability, water availability, Fewer tags Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection under Climate Change Explore climate change impacts on vegetation across the Desert and Southern Rockies LCCs using historical monitoring data collected from 23 sites across the Sonoran, Chihuahuan, Mojave and Colorado Plateau deserts for 30-50 years. This data will then be combined with ecosystem water balance model simulations to establish features of water availability critical for plant species response. Results will allow managers to identify species and communities at risk under future climate scenarios based on predicted changes in plant water availability. Due to the high variability in soils, incorporating a detailed understanding of soil water availability beyond bioclimatic envelope approaches in the desert Southwest is essential... Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags... Applications and Tools, Arizona, Big Bend ‐ Río Bravo & Lower Río Conchos Pilot Area, CA-08, CO-03, California, Chihuahua, Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau, Conservation NGOs, Datasets/Database, Decision Support, Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative, EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > VEGETATION, Federal resource managers, LCC, LCC Network Science Catalog, Mexico, Mojave Desert, Mojave Desert Pilot Area, NM-02, NV-03, NV-04, New Mexico, Population & Habitat Evaluation/Projection, Project, Sonora, Sonoran Desert, TX-16, TX-23, Transboundary Madrean Watersheds Pilot Area, UT-02, UT-03, United States, User Manual, Utah, Vulnerability Assessment, biota, climate change, completed, desert southwest, ecohydrology, plants, soil water, vegetation change, water availability, Fewer tags Factsheet: Managing big sagebrush in a changing climate This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact. Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Artemisia, Completed, EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, Federal resource managers, All tags... Great Basin, Great Basin, LCC Network Science Catalog, Publication, State agencies, big sagebrush, biota, climate change, correlative models, environment, location, model comparison, modeling, process-based models, sagebrush, vegetation change, Fewer tags Webinar: Grassland Vulnerability to Climate Change in Southwest Deserts Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change.Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables.Our analyses... Categories: Data; Tags: EARTH SCIENCE > LAND SURFACE > LANDSCAPE, LCC Network Science Catalog, LCC Network Science Catalog, chihuahuan desert, climate change, All tags... colorado plateau, completed, desert, ecohydrology, environment, grasslands, historic patterns, presentation, soil water, sonoran desert, southern rockies lcc, southern rockies lcc, vegetation change, water availability, Fewer tags Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection (RCMAP) Fractional Component Time-Series Across the Western U.S. 1985-2020 The RCMAP (Rangeland Condition Monitoring Assessment and Projection) dataset quantifies the percent cover of rangeland components across the western U.S. using Landsat imagery from 1985-2020. The RCMAP product suite consists of eight fractional components: annual herbaceous, bare ground, herbaceous, litter, non-sagebrush shrub, perennial herbaceous, sagebrush, shrub and rule-based error maps including the temporal trends of each component. Several enhancements were made to the RCMAP process relative to prior generations. We used an updated version of the 2016 base training data, with a more aggressive forest mask and reduced shrub and sagebrush cover bias in pinyon-juniper woodlands. We pooled training data in areas... Categories: Data; Tags: AZ, Arizona, Arizona Plateau, Black Hills, Blue Mountains, All tags... CA, CO, California, Chihuahuan, Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado, Colorado Plateau, Columbia Plateau, Desert, Grand Canyon, Great Basin, Gunnison, ID, Idaho, MT, Mediterranean California, Middle Rockies, Mojave, Montana, ND, NE, NM, NV, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, North Plains, Northern Great Plains, Northern Great Salt Lake Desert, Northern Mountainous, Northern Rocky Mountains, OR, Oregon, Plains, Plateau, Rocky Mountains, SD, Sierra Nevada, Sonoran, Sonoran Desert, South Dakota, Southern Great Salt Lake Desert, Southern Rocky Mountains, Southwest Tablelands, TX, Texas, The Rockies, Three Forks, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), UT, United States, Utah, WA, WY, Wasatch, Washington, Western US, Wyoming, Wyoming Basin, Yellowstone, annual herbaceous, back-in-time, bare ground, big sagebrush, biota, climate change, environment, geoscientificInformation, grass, grassland change, herbaceous, imageryBaseMapsEarthCover, litter, mts, rangeland, rangeland management, sagebrush, shrub, shrubland, shrubland change, shrubland ecosystems, shrublands, terrestrial ecosystems, time series, trends, vegetation, vegetation change, Fewer tags Future Spotted Owl Habitat Scenarios, Southwest Oregon Study Area, 2007-2096 The following files are designed to be run using the Path Landscape Model software, version 3.0.4. Later versions of the software cannot run these files. To get a copy of this software, please contact Apex RMS at path@apexrms.com. These files will open in the Path Landscape Model, version 3.0.4 or later. 1) In "Path Model" folder, path models MUST be run with the provided MCM mulitplier files to apply the required transition probability adjustments for procesess such as insect outbreaks, wildfire, and climate change trends. Each Path database is set up with three folders: - The 'Common' folder contains a single Path scenario (also named 'Common'). The Transitions tab within the Common scenario contains the climate-smart... Categories: Data; Tags: Birds, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, All tags... Landscapes, Northwest CASC, Pacific Northwest, Southwest Oregon, Wildlife and Plants, climate change, land management, state and transition modeling, vegetation change, vulnerability assessment, wildlife habitat, Fewer tags Publication and Report: Ecosystem Water Balance in a Desert Grassland ​Abstract: Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags... Applications and Tools, Arizona, Big Bend ‐ Río Bravo & Lower Río Conchos Pilot Area, CA-08, CO-03, California, Chihuahua, Chihuahuan Desert, Colorado Plateau, Conservation NGOs, Data.gov Desert LCC, Datasets/Database, Decision Support, EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > VEGETATION, Federal resource managers, LCC Network Science Catalog, Mexico, Mojave Desert, Mojave Desert Pilot Area, NM-02, NV-03, NV-04, New Mexico, Population & Habitat Evaluation/Projection, Publication, Report, Sonora, Sonoran Desert, TX-16, TX-23, Transboundary Madrean Watersheds Pilot Area, UT-02, UT-03, United States, User Manual, Utah, Vulnerability Assessment, biota, climate change, completed, desert southwest, ecohydrology, plants, product, soil water, vegetation change, water availability, Fewer tags Future Sage-Grouse Habitat Scenarios, Southeast Oregon Study Area, 2007-2096 The following files are designed to be run using the Path Landscape Model software, version 3.0.4. Later versions of the software cannot run these files. To get a copy of this software, please contact Apex RMS at path@apexrms.com. 1) "Path Landscape Mode" folder contains files to be run in the PLM softwarel, version 3.0.4 or later. Path models MUST be run with the provided MCM mulitplier files to apply the required transition probability adjustments for procesess such as insect outbreaks, wildfire, and climate change trends. Each Path database is set up with three folders: - The 'Common' folder contains a single Path scenario (also named 'Common'). The Transitions tab within the Common scenario contains the climate-smart... Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable; Tags: Birds, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, All tags... Great Basin, Landscapes, Northwest CASC, Pacific Northwest, Southeast Oregon, Wildlife and Plants, climate change, land management, state and transition modeling, vegetation change, vulnerability assessment, wildlife habitat, Fewer tags Webinar: Grassland Vulnerability to Climate Change in Southwest Deserts Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change.Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables.Our analyses... Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Conservation NGOs, Data.gov Desert LCC, EARTH SCIENCE > BIOSPHERE > VEGETATION, Federal resource managers, All tags... LCC Network Science Catalog, biota, chihuahuan desert, chihuahuan desert, climate change, climate change, colorado plateau, colorado plateau, completed, ecohydrology, ecohydrology, grasslands, grasslands, historic patterns, historic patterns, presentation, product, soil water, soil water, sonoran desert, sonoran desert, vegetation change, vegetation change, water availability, water availability, Fewer tags