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Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
To understand the impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity on conifer forests, we studied how wildfire and post-fire seasonal climate conditions influence western larch (Larix occidentalis) regeneration across its range in the northwestern US. We destructively sampled 1651 seedlings from 57 sites across 32 fires that burned at moderate or high severity between 2000 and 2015; sites were within 100 m of reproductively mature western larch. Using dendrochronological methods, we estimated germination years of seedlings to calculate annual recruitment rates. We used boosted regression trees to model the annual probability of recruitment as a function of (i) ‘wildfire-related factors’ including distance to seed...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Aim Spatiotemporal variation in resource availability is a strong driver of animal distributions. In the northern hardwood and boreal forests of the northeastern United States, tree mast events provide resource pulses that drive the population dynamics of small mammals, including the American red squirrel (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus), a primary songbird nest predator. This study sought to determine whether mast availability ameliorates their abiotic limits, enabling red squirrel elevational distributions to temporarily expand and negatively impact high-elevation songbirds. Location Northeastern United States. Methods We used two independent datasets to evaluate our hypotheses. First, we fit a dynamic occupancy model...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Understanding patterns of species abundance is essential for planning landscape-level conservation. The complex hierarchies of dendritic ecosystems result in different levels of heterogeneity at distinct geographic scales. Species responses to dynamic environmental drivers may also vary spatially depending on their interactions with landscape features. Monitoring abundance by explicitly quantifying their spatial and temporal variation is important for strategic management. We analysed brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) count data collected from 173 sites in western North Carolina between 1989 and 2015. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that used single- and multi-pass electro-fishing data and characterized...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Observed links between parasites, such as ticks, and climate change have aroused concern for human health, wildlife population dynamics, and broader ecosystem effects. The one-host life history of the winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) links each annual cohort to environmental conditions during three specific time periods when they are predictably vulnerable: spring detachment from hosts, summer larval stage, and fall questing for hosts. We used mixed-effects generalized linear models to investigate the drivers of tick loads carried by moose (Alces alces) relative to these time periods and across 750 moose, 10 years, and 16 study areas in the western United States. We tested for the effects of biotic factors (moose...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This data release consists of statistical predictions of daily salinity time series generated from the makESTUSAL software repository described by Asquith and others (2023b). The statistical methods included multiple methods of machine learning, which produced the daily salinity prediction and attendant credible uncertainties included in the data release. The geographic scope includes the predictions for 91 locations within bays and estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico, United States. The 91 locations are organized across 15 salinity groups and represented in the organizational structure of this data release. The input data files of imputed salinity (observations, response variable) and covariates (predictor variables)...
Our aim was to describe shifts in autumn and winter harvest distributions of three species of dabbling ducks (blue-winged teal [Spatula discors], mallard [Anas platyrhynchos], and northern pintail [Anas acuta]) in the Central and Mississippi flyways of North America during 1960–2019. We measured shifts in band recovery distributions corrected for changes in hunting season dates and zones by using kernel density estimators to calculate 10 distributional metrics. We then assessed interannual and intraspecific variation by comparing species-specific changes in distributional metrics for 4 months (October–January) and three geographically based subpopulations. During 1960–2019, band recovery distributions shifted west-...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Shellfish harvesting is central to coastal Alaska Native ways of life, and tribes in Southeast Alaska are committed to preserving sustainable and safe access to subsistence foods. However, consumption of non-commercially harvested shellfish puts Alaska Native communities at elevated risk of exposure to shellfish toxins. To address a lack of state or federal toxin testing for subsistence and recreational harvesting, tribes across Southeast Alaska have formed their own toxin testing and ocean monitoring program. In this study, we interviewed environmental managers responsible for tribes' testing and others with shellfish toxin expertise to report on perceptions of barriers to tribally led testing in Southeast Alaska....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
To design research projects that address the information needs of natural resource managers, we need to learn lessons from past projects that tried to do this. We developed an evaluation approach to assess how effective research projects had been at meeting the needs of natural resource managers. We applied our approach to projects funded by the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and looked for characteristics shared by projects that were more effective at meeting the needs of managers. We developed a new survey instrument for evaluating the usefulness of research projects to stakeholders. We surveyed PIs involved in projects funded by SE CASC, their stakeholder partners, and the center’s leadership about...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This dataset is a component of a complete package of products from the Connect the Connecticut project. Connect the Connecticut is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conserving the Connecticut River Watershed for future generations, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural ecosystems they inhabit. Click here to download the full data package, including all documentation. These datasets represent aquatic core areas and aquatic buffers, in combination with terrestrial cores and connectors they spatially represent the ecological network derived from the CTR LCD project. Lotic cores: This set of lotic (river and stream) core areas, in combination with the lotic cores...
The sensitivity of forecast-informed reservoir operating policies to forecast attributes (lead-time and skill) in many-objective water systems has been well-established. However, the viability of forecast-informed operations as a climate change adaptation strategy remains underexplored, especially in many-objective systems with complex trade-offs across interests. Little is known about the relationships between forecast attribute and policy robustness under deep uncertainty in future conditions and the relationships between forecast-informed performance and future hydrologic state. This study explores the sensitivity of forecast-informed policy robustness to forecast lead-time and skill in the outflow management...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models, such as Gaussian processes, are poorly suited for modeling extreme events. Spatial extreme value models with more realistic tail dependence characteristics are under active development. They are theoretically justified but give intractable likelihoods, making computation challenging for small datasets and prohibitive for continental-scale studies. We propose a process mixture model (PMM) which specifies spatial dependence in extreme values as a convex combination of a Gaussian process and a max-stable process, yielding...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The geographic redistributions of species due to a rapidly changing climate are poised to perturb ecological communities and significantly impact ecosystems and human livelihoods. Effectively managing these biological impacts requires a thorough understanding of the patterns and processes of species geographic range shifts. While substantial recent redistributions have been identified and recognized to vary by taxon, region, and range geometry, there are large gaps and biases in the available evidence. Here, we use the largest compilation of geographic range change observations to date, comprised of 33,016 potential redistributions across 12,009 species, to formally assess within- and cross-species coverage and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Snow is a major, climate-sensitive feature of the Earth’s surface and catalyst of fundamentally important ecosystem processes. Understanding how snow influences sentinel species in rapidly changing mountain ecosystems is particularly critical. Whereas effects of snow on food availability, energy expenditure, and predation are well documented, we report how avalanches exert major impacts on an ecologically significant mountain ungulate - the coastal Alaskan mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). Using long-term GPS data and field observations across four populations (421 individuals over 17 years), we show that avalanches caused 23−65% of all mortality, depending on area. Deaths varied seasonally and were directly...
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This article presents a systematic literature review of publications from 2014 to 2021 using “archaeological site” and “climate change” as keywords, in addition to several terms representing forms of stakeholder engagement. Articles were thematically coded to explore trends at the intersection of climate change, archaeology, and local and Traditional stakeholders. Results show that nearly half of the selected publications did not include local and Traditional stakeholder engagement in studies related to climate adaptation planning for archaeological sites. Synthesis of the results with insights gained from other literature on decolonizing archaeology showed that potential reasons for this gap include (1) the academic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Wetland ecosystems hold nearly a third of the global soil carbon pool, but as wetlands rapidly disappear the fate of this stored soil carbon is unclear. The aim of this study was to quantify and then link potential rates of microbial decomposition after vertical drowning of vegetated tidal marshes in coastal Louisiana to known drivers of anaerobic decomposition altered by vegetation loss. Profiles of potential CH4 and CO2 production (surface to 60 cm deep) were measured during anaerobic incubations, organic matter chemistry was assessed with infrared spectroscopy, and soil porewater nutrients and redox potentials were measured in the field along a chronosequence of wetland loss. After vertical drowning, pond soils...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Cold-water species in temperate lakes face two simultaneous climate-driven ecosystem changes: warming and browning of their waters. Browning refers to reduced transparency arising from increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which absorbs solar energy near the surface. It is unclear whether the net effect is mitigation or amplification of climate warming impacts on suitable oxythermal habitat (<20 °C, >5 mgO/L) for cold-loving species because browning expands the vertical distribution of both cool water and oxygen depletion. We analyzed long-term trends and high-frequency sensor data from browning lakes in New York’s Adirondack region to assess the contemporary status of summertime habitat for lacustrine brook...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Warming water temperatures as a result of climate change pose a major threat to coldwater organisms. However, the rate of warming is not spatially uniform due to surface-ground-water interactions and stream and watershed characteristics. Coldwater habitats that are most resistant to warming serve as thermal refugia and identifying their locations is critical to regional aquatic conservation planning. We quantified the thermal sensitivity of 203 streams providing current and potential habitat for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) across nearly 1000 linear km of their native range in the southern and central Appalachian Mountains region, USA, and characterized their spatial variability with landscape variables available...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The goals of the project were to quantify a set of ecosystem services — benefits that wildlife or ecosystems provide to people — that are priorities for the Billy Frank Jr. Nisqually National Wildlife Refuge, the Nisqually Indian Tribe and the surrounding communities. The Nisqually River Delta, located in South Puget Sound, contains a rich mosaic of different coastal habitat types. We modeled how change in these habitats from sea level rise (SLR) or management activities like restoration could affect ecosystem services in the future. We focused on changes to soil carbon accumulation, birdwatching visitation, and juvenile Chinook salmon growth rates, which served a proxy for fishery production. A habitat and carbon...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Dozens of species of landbirds, such as warblers, hummingbirds, and orioles, migrate through the Northeastern United States from their summer breeding grounds in the U.S. and Canada to their nonbreeding grounds as far south as South America. During the migration period, birds must find habitat where they can stop, rest and replenish their energy reserves. Conservation efforts are increasingly focused on identifying stopover sites that are important for sustaining migratory landbird populations. This project builds upon prior work by the University of Delaware and USGS to use weather surveillance data and field surveys to map and predict important migratory bird stopover sites.This project was co-funded by through...


map background search result map search result map Aquatic Cores and Buffers, CT River Watershed Identifying Important Migratory Landbird Stopover Sites in the Northeast Modeled daily salinity derived from multiple machine learning methodologies for 91 salinity monitoring sites in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1980–2021 Aquatic Cores and Buffers, CT River Watershed Modeled daily salinity derived from multiple machine learning methodologies for 91 salinity monitoring sites in the northern Gulf of Mexico, 1980–2021 Identifying Important Migratory Landbird Stopover Sites in the Northeast