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Climate change is influencing temperature, precipitation, and the temporal availability of resources required for successful reproduction and survival. Implications for the economically and culturally important eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) are largely unknown. Therefore, we assessed associations between observed weather and eastern wild turkey nest initiation timing and nest survival and then projected observed associations under multiple climate change scenarios to assess potential implications of future climate change. Nest initiation date was influenced by temperature and precipitation, but projected changes associated with climate change shift nest initiation date by <0.1 day by 2041-2060....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
(Abstract from Wiley): The growing season start and duration, along with other temperature-related measures of importance to premium wine grapes in Napa Valley, California have changed as climate over the western United States has warmed. The growing season start has varied from year to year with a standard deviation of about 3 weeks, but over the 1958–2016 record a linear fit to the time sequence shows it advanced by more than 4 weeks. Over the study period, advances in the growing season were strongly influenced by temperature increases beginning in the late 1960s with warm anomalies generally persisting through recent years. The date upon which the growing season accumulated 1400 growing degree-days also shifted...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract: This review paper addresses the challenging question of “how to” design and implement co-production of knowledge in climate science and other environmental and agricultural sciences. Based on a grounded theory review of nine (9) published case studies of transdisciplinary and collaborative research projects, the paper offers a set of common themes regarding specific components and processes for the design, implementation, and achievement of co-production of knowledge work, which represent the “Modus Operandi” of knowledge co-production. The analysis focuses on practical methodological guidance based on lessons from how different research teams have approached the challenges of complex collaborative research....
(Abstract from Geophysical Research Letters): Increasing wildfire and declining snowpacks in mountain regions threaten water availability. We combine satellite-based fire detections with snow seasonality classifications to examine fire activity in California's seasonal and ephemeral snow zones. We find a nearly tenfold increase in fire activity during 2020–2021 versus 2001–2019. Accumulation season broadband snow albedo declined 25%–71% at two burned sites (2021 and 2022) according to in-situ data relative to un-burned conditions, with greater declines associated with increased burn severity. By enhancing snowpack susceptibility to melt, both decreased snow albedo and canopy drove midwinter melt during a multi-week...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from NSO Journals): Island ecosystems are particularly susceptible to the impacts of invasive species. Many rare and endangered species that are endemic to islands are negatively affected by invasions. Past studies have shown that the establishment of non-native species on islands is related to native plant richness, habitat heterogeneity, island age, human activity, and climate. However, it is unclear whether the factors promoting establishment (i.e. the formation of self-sustaining populations) also promote subsequent invasion (i.e. spread and negative impacts). Using data from 4308 non-native plant species across 46 islands and archipelagos globally, we examined which biogeographic characteristics influence...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
(Abstract from Springer): Natural resource researchers have long recognized the value of working closely with the managers and communities who depend on, steward, and impact ecosystems. These partnerships take various forms, including co-production and transdisciplinary research approaches, which integrate multiple knowledges in the design and implementation of research objectives, questions, methods, and desired outputs or outcomes. These collaborations raise important methodological and ethical challenges, because partnering with non-scientists can have real-world risks for people and ecosystems. The social sciences and biomedical research studies offer a suite of conceptual tools that enhance the quality, ethical...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The rapid diversification of terminology associated with invasion ecology is a known barrier to effective communication and management. These challenges are magnified by the addition of terms and concepts related to climate-induced range-shifting taxa and/or changes to impacts. Further, institutional policies and terminologies for invasive species introduce new ambiguities when considering climate change. To alleviate communication and application challenges, we introduce a conceptual framework that organizes climate-related invasion terms, revealing ambiguities and gaps. Additionally, we illustrate how these ambiguities can affect management with four case studies and consider situations where resolution can improve...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Responding to climate impacts and expanding adaptation efforts necessitates getting the right knowledge and tools in the hands of land managers and decision-makers. In 2022–2023, several regional US Geological Survey Climate Adaptation Science Centers partnered with the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Science Applications Program on the first targeted climate training series designed for the FWS Grassland Ecosystem Team. This training spanned multiple months and formats with self-paced virtual lessons, webinars, and an in-person workshop. As the FWS Grassland Ecosystem Team is tasked with conservation planning for grassland birds and other species, the focus of the workshop was an interactive collaborative activity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum...
(Abstract from Springer): The Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascades—California’s snowy mountains—are primary freshwater sources and natural reservoirs for the states of California and Nevada. These mountains receive precipitation overwhelmingly from wintertime storms including atmospheric rivers (ARs), much of it falling as snow at the higher elevations. Using a seven-decade record of daily observed temperature and precipitation as well as a snow reanalysis and downscaled climate projections, we documented historical and future changes in snow accumulation and snowlines. In four key subregions of California’s snowy mountains, we quantified the progressing contribution of ARs and non-AR storms to the evolving and projected...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is leading to global increases in extreme events, such as drought, that threaten the persistence of freshwater biodiversity. Identification and management of drought refuges, areas that promote resistance and resilience to drought, will be critical for preserving and recovering aquatic biodiversity in the face of climate change and increasing human water use. Although several reviews have addressed the effects of droughts and highlighted the role of refuges, a need remains on how to identify functional refuges that can be used in a drought management framework to support fish assemblages. We synthesize literature on drought refuges and propose a framework to identify and manage functional refuges...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Terrestrial evapotranspiration is the second-largest component of the land water cycle, linking the water, energy, and carbon cycles and influencing the productivity and health of ecosystems. The dynamics of ET across a spectrum of spatiotemporal scales and their controls remain an active focus of research across different science disciplines. Here, we provide an overview of the current state of ET science across in situ measurements, partitioning of ET, and remote sensing, and discuss how different approaches complement one another based on their advantages and shortcomings. We aim to facilitate collaboration among a cross-disciplinary group of ET scientists to overcome the challenges identified in this paper and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Tree regeneration shapes forest carbon dynamics by determining long-term forest composition and structure, which suggests that threats to natural regeneration may diminish the capacity of forests to replace live tree carbon transferred to the atmosphere or other pools through tree mortality. Yet, the potential implications of tree regeneration patterns for future carbon dynamics have been sparsely studied. We used forest inventory plots to investigate whether the composition of existing tree regeneration is consistent with aboveground carbon stock loss, replacement, or gain for forests across the northeastern and midwestern USA, leveraging a recently developed method to predict the likelihood of sapling recruitment...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Objective Managing freshwater fisheries in warming lakes is challenging because climate change impacts anglers, fish, and their interactions. Methods We integrated recent models of current and future lake temperatures with recreational fisheries catch data from 587 lakes in three north-central U.S. states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to evaluate how the thermal composition of recreational fisheries catch varied as a function of temperature, ice coverage, and lake morphometry. Result We found that warmwater catch share (WCS), defined as the proportion of fish in recreational angling catch that belonged to the warmwater thermal guild (final temperature preferendum [FTP] > 25°C), increased with average annual...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract Low-level stratiform clouds modulate California's coastal climate during the warm season. Previous work describing the seasonal and daily variability of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) suggests that in July, August, and September southern California's CLC is under the influence of an additional driver, which has less impact in northern California. In this work, we introduce the link in which free-tropospheric moisture dictated by North American Monsoon (NAM) processes can impact southern California CLC. We use in situ and remote sensing observations, as well as reanalysis and single column model simulations to identify and investigate this previously missing component. We find that monsoonal moisture advected...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Highlights Multiple fingerprints built using four-part conservativeness tests and random forest. Floodplain sediment on which extensive cottonwood groves established dates to 1912. The source for ∼85% of this sediment are tributaries that were eroding at that time. Random forest can improve tracer selection in fingerprinting approaches. Findings underscore the major role of tributaries in the dynamics of large rivers. Abstract Sediment deposition on floodplains is essential for the development and maintenance of riparian ecosystems. Upstream erosion is known to influence downstream floodplain construction, but linking these disparate processes is challenging, especially over large spatial and temporal scales....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an enduring public health threat in lakes and rivers. In addition to more commonly studied planktonic taxa in lakes, attached cyanobacteria covering riverbeds and lake littoral zones can produce anatoxins, potent neurotoxins of growing concern. However, relative to planktonic blooms, the geographical and temporal extent and ecology of anatoxin-producing benthic cyanobacteria are poorly documented. To increase understanding of the distribution of these cyanobacteria and their relationships with physicochemical variables, we surveyed sites throughout the Klamath River watershed in Northern California, USA, for anatoxins from benthic mats. We used visual surveys, composite...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) and Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are impactful weather events for California communities. Emergency planning efforts and resource management would benefit from extending lead times of skillful prediction for these and other types of extreme weather patterns. Here we describe a methodology for subseasonal prediction of impactful winter weather in California, including ARs, SAWs and heat extremes. The hybrid approach combines dynamical model and historical information to forecast probabilities of impactful weather outcomes at weeks 1–4 lead. This methodology uses dynamical model information considered most reliable, that is, planetary/synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation, filters for dynamical...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Integrating climate change into place-based conservation presents a pressing challenge for promoting future biodiversity conservation success. In particular, the broad effects of climate change can make it difficult to prioritize specific actions in specific places. Natural Heritage New Mexico, along with state and federal partners, has developed Conservation Opportunity Areas (COAs) for New Mexico representing locations where limited conservation funds can be effectively used for preserving sensitive species (COAs include Important Plant Areas). Although the COAs currently represent our best estimate of where conservation activities are most likely to have favorable outcomes, they do not account for climate change...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


    map background search result map search result map Temperature data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Temperature data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes