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Natural resource managers consistently identify invasive species as one of the biggest challenges for ecological adaptation to climate change. Yet climate change is often not considered during their management decision making. Given the many ways that invasive species and climate change will interact, such as changing fire regimes and facilitating the migration of high priority species, it is more critical than ever to integrate climate adaptation science and natural resource management. The coupling of climate adaptation and invasive species management remains limited by a lack of information, personnel, and funding. Those working on ecological adaptation to climate change have reported that information is not...
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This data release contains the two intermediary variables (processed lake temperature prediction feather files and bioenergetic metrics CSV), model code in R script used to produce the outputs, and bioenergetics model prediction feather files for a set of fish bioenergetics models under current and future temperature conditions at 337 large lakes.
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Landscape-scale conservation of threatened and endangered species is often challenged by multiple, sometimes conflicting, land uses. In Hawaiʻi, efforts to conserve native forests have come into conflict with objectives to sustain non-native game mammals, such as feral pigs, goats, and deer, for subsistence and sport hunting. Maintaining stable or increasing game populations represents one of the greatest obstacles to the recovery of Hawaii’s 425 threatened and endangered plant species. Many endemic Hawaiian species have declined and become endangered as a result of herbivorous non-native game mammals. Meanwhile, other environmental changes, including the spread of invasive grasses and changing precipitation patterns...
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For the past few years, “king tides,” or the highest tides of the year, have been occurring more frequently and significantly affecting coastal environments across Hawaiʻi. Now, disappearing beaches and waves crashing over roadways are seemingly the “new normal.” In response, the state of Hawaiʻi is implementing adaptation strategies to combat tidal flooding in coastal areas. While flood management strategies are being implemented in urban areas, less is known about how tidal flooding, and associated inundation into surface and groundwater, might influence watershed dynamics and the native animals that depend on estuarine environments where freshwater meets the sea. Efforts for biocultural restoration of ecosystem...
Assessment of species’ vulnerability to climate change has been limited by mismatch between coarse macroclimate data and the fine scales at which species select habitat. Habitat mediates climate conditions, and fine-scale habitat features may permit species to exploit favourable microclimates, but habitat preferences can also constrain their ability to do so. We leveraged fine-resolution models of near-surface temperature and humidity in grasslands to understand how microclimates affect climatic exposure and demographics in a grassland bird community. We asked: (i) Do species select favourable nest-site microclimates? (ii) Do habitat preferences limit the ability of species to access microclimates? (iii) What are...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree-ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods...
Molokaʻi is the fifth most populated of the eight main islands that make up the Hawaiian archipelago. Located in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, the island faces serious impacts from sea-level rise and has already experienced severe runoff and sedimentation from upland forest degradation. Coastal wetlands on the island have been degraded due to sedimentation, human alteration, and invasive species. Loʻipūnāwai (spring-fed irrigated agricultural pondfields), which were historically used to grow kalo (taro, a root vegetable), have been lost across the entire landscape except for a few scattered locations. Coastal wetlands are fundamentally important to Native Hawaiians—their function is inextricably intertwined...
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PI-CASC regularly interacts with a diverse and extensive network of stakeholder organizations at federal, territory, state, county, and local levels across the Pacific Region, supporting communication and iterative problem solving between researchers, managers, and decision makers. In addition to these partnerships, PI-CASC has two important ongoing collaborative initiatives. Pacific Islands-Alaska CASC collaboration The PI-AK CASC collaboration is aimed at bringing together scientist and resource managers from the Pacific and Alaska regions to share insights on related climate adaptation challenges in Ridge-to-Reef (R2R) and Icefield-to-Ocean (I2O) ecosystems. Similarities in landscapes and communities in these...
Threats to the future function of forested ecosystems and stability of ecosystem service provisioning due to global change have motivated climate-adaptive forest management strategies that include various forms of tree planting termed “adaptation plantings”. Despite the emergence of these strategies, less is known as to how foresters and other natural resource managers perceive or are engaged with adaptation plantings like forest assisted migration (FAM). This knowledge gap is most pronounced in regions like New England and the North Central US (hereafter, the Northeastern US) where tree planting is less common but expected to be an important forest management tool for adaptation. To address this, we surveyed 33...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Motivation. Understanding the multiple weather and climatic factors that cause wildfires is critical to short and long-period forecasting and planning. To support investigations to further such research and applications, a fine spatial scale 2km horizontal atmospheric model-founded rendition of observed wind and humidity data was generated for the period from 1980 through 2018. Focusing on California’s South Coast region, Santa Ana winds (SAWs) each occur with increasing frequency from autumn to winter and may affect fire outcomes. Aims. We investigate historical records to understand how these counteracting influences have affected fires. Methods. We defined autumn precipitation onset as the first 3 days when...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
As a consequence of both warming temperatures and over a century of fire suppression, wildfires in the his torically frequent-fire forests of the western US have increased both in size and intensity, resulting in large patches of high severity fire that are well outside the historic range of variation. Postfire fuels research has often focused on such high severity patches because of the risk of both type conversion and repeated high severity fire. Yet a substantial portion of any given wildfire will likely still have burned at low to moderate severity. These areas generally retain live mature trees and surface fuels, suggesting that wildfire effects may be in keeping with some forest restoration goals. To better...
The southern Great Plains (SGP) has recently experienced wildfires with unprecedented severity and frequency, which significantly threatened human life and property and altered terrestrial ecosystem functions. While it is expected that future climate change will affect wildfire danger levels by altering fire weather and fuel conditions, there remains a significant gap in understanding how these changes will manifest in the SGP. Therefore, our objectives were to (1) simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of the Burning Index (BI), a widely used fire danger index in the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS), and high fire danger days based on CMIP5 climate simulations, comparing the 1986–2005 historical period...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Annual summer, early winter, and total winter seasonal precipitation metrics, in millimeters, for Alaska and Northwest Canada. Seasonal metrics were calculated from monthly data with season lengths calculated from the piecewise cubic hermite interpolating polynomial calculated from monthly temperature data used to calculate our degree-day dataset. Input monthly data from the Scenarios Network for Alaska + Arctic Planing, consisting of downscaled CRU TS 4.0 historic estimates of monthly temperature were used for the period from 1901-2020, and downscaled CMIP5/AR5 projected estimates of monthly temperature were used from the period from 2006-2100. Summer precipitation and early winter precipitation were calculated...
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Project Overview Rural communities near large, protected areas like National Parks often face heightened social vulnerability and environmental risks (e.g., flooding), which are expected to worsen with climate and land-use changes. Researchers supported by this Southeast CASC project will collaborate with stakeholders and communities in the Southern Appalachians and Congaree to refine strategies for addressing these combined vulnerabilities. They will create maps and projections outlining high-risk areas that can be used by conservation managers and policymakers to prioritize management actions benefiting both the environment and human communities. Project Summary People living near large, protected areas,...
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Microrefugia can play an important role in determining biological responses to climate change, but the location and characteristics of these habitats are often poorly understood. Groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) represent critical climatic microrefugia for species dependent on cool, moist habitats. However, knowledge of the distribution and stability of GDE microrefugia is currently lacking. This challenge is typified within moist portions of the Pacific Northwest, where poorly studied cliff-face seeps harbor exceptional biodiversity despite their diminutive size (e.g., ~1-10m width). To enable future management of these habitats as climatic microrefugia, we modeled the distribution and thermal and hydrologic...
The Red River Basin (RRB) spans across the South Central United States, encompassing parts of five states from New Mexico to Louisiana. It covers approximately 27% of Oklahoma's territory (Kellogg, 2020). Numerous cities rely on its waters for commercial, municipal, and residential purposes, making these communities highly susceptible to hydrological shifts. Research from 2016 revealed that climate change impacts within the basin are multifaceted, with the eastern region facing increased flooding risks and the western portion experiencing prolonged droughts (Kellogg et al., 2016). However, the findings did not provide a definitive outlook on whether the area will become drier or wetter overall. Southwest Oklahoma...


map background search result map search result map Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin Managing Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i Creating a North Central Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NC RISCC) Management Network Regional Collaborations Effect of Extreme Tidal Events on Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for He‘eia Fish Communities undergoing Ahupua‘a Restoration FY 2023 Projects Bioenergetics Models of Freshwater Precids and Centrarchids in 337 lakes Under Predicted Future Climate Conditions Across the Midwest from 2000-2100 Social-Ecological Vulnerability in Human Communities Surrounding Large Protected Areas in the Southeast Estimates of the distribution and refugial properties of cliff-face seeps across the Pacific Northwest (high/medium confidence areas only) Raster Seasonal Precipitation Data for for Alaska and Northwest Canada 1901-2100 Multi-century reconstructions of temperature, precipitation, and runoff efficiency for the Upper Colorado River Basin Estimates of the distribution and refugial properties of cliff-face seeps across the Pacific Northwest (high/medium confidence areas only) FY 2023 Projects Effect of Extreme Tidal Events on Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for He‘eia Fish Communities undergoing Ahupua‘a Restoration Creating a North Central Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NC RISCC) Management Network Bioenergetics Models of Freshwater Precids and Centrarchids in 337 lakes Under Predicted Future Climate Conditions Across the Midwest from 2000-2100 Social-Ecological Vulnerability in Human Communities Surrounding Large Protected Areas in the Southeast Raster Seasonal Precipitation Data for for Alaska and Northwest Canada 1901-2100 Regional Collaborations