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Global climate change and sea-level rise will have profound effects on estuarine fish, shellfish and wildlife populations and their habitats. Our ability to manage sustainable fish, shellfish and other wildlife populations in the future will be seriously compromised unless we have a basic understanding of the coming changes and use this to develop mitigation and adaptation measures. The overall objective of this multi-agency research is to develop the baseline climatic and biological data, models, and tools to predict the cumulative impact of climate change on habitats and ecosystem services in a series of coastal estuaries of the Pacific Northwest. In collaboration with other federal, state, and non-governmental...
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FY2014Although the future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which suffer from a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat change. Our goal is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain...
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FY2019Multijurisdictional, international landscape with many shared priorities but lacks landscape (inter-jurisdictional) perspective. Landscape conservation design process will provide landscape context and future scenarios to support coordinated conservation investment.FY2020Entering Phase 2 of a 3-year project, a Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) will deliver a set of strategies that the Crown Managers Partnership and dozens of stakeholders can deploy to achieve desired ecological conditions based on defined, measurable resource outcomes across the Crown of the Continent ecosystem. LCD is a holistic, participatory process bringing stakeholders together to define a desired future for the Crown landscape and...
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
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FY2010In addition to regional Science and Traditional Ecological Knowledge projects that the Great Basin LCC (GBLCC) supports, GBLCC staff lend technical expertise to a range of projects and have contributed to important regional publications on a range of subjects. These publications range in type from textbooks, to management-oriented science and conservation plans, to scientific papers and have covered subjects like wind erosion following fire, soil microbiota response to drought, plant community resilience to invasive species, and alpine plant communities. In many cases these publications form foundations for scientifically-informed management strategies across the Great Basin.
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The purpose of this project was to develop a spatially explicit occupancy model for grizzly bears across the full extent of the CCE. The landscape occupancy model was created using ecological variables compiled for the CCE by the CMP and grizzly bear detection data provided by our partners in Alberta, British Columbia, and Montana.
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We created ADAPT to help partners make science-informed decisions related to species and habitat prioritization across the Southwest United States. We used Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to analyze the data at a 1-km resolution. We used climate and land use change data generated from CMIP 6 climate models. Count data were from eBird surveys and converted to presence/absence data for analysis. Our model consisted of fixed effects of elevation, land cover type, and effort with random effects for year and site as well as a spatial random effect. We implemented the effect of relative humidity as a spatially-varying coefficient such that the effect of relative humidity on occupancy can vary at each grid...
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As glaciers melt from climate change, their contents – namely, large quantities of freshwater, sediment, and nutrients – are slowly released into coastal ecosystems. This project addressed the impacts of melting glaciers on coastal ecosystems in the Copper River region of the Gulf of Alaska, which is home to several commercially important fisheries. Researchers examined how glacial melting is altering the amount and timing of freshwater that enters the Gulf of Alaska from the Copper River. They also investigated the source and amount of two nutrients, iron and nitrate, dissolved in the water. As a complementary piece of the study, researchers tested the relationship between nutrient levels, plankton populations,...
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A warmer climate has increased the spread of mountain Pine beetle. Historically, mountain pine beetle populations were limited to southern regions due to cold temperature intolerance. However, increasing winter temperatures has allowed the species to spread further north, contributing to the loss of over 1 million ha of forest in the United States and 9 million ha in Canada.Data on mountain pine beetle damage was compiled by CMP Hi5 Working Group technical team. Aerial detection surveys between 1999–2020 for Montana, Alberta, and Waterton Lakes National Park were compiled and assigned a severity score using the USDA Forest Service classification system. Severity is based on crown mortality from aerial images, with...
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Habitat Condition for Imperiled Species is one of a suite of products from the Nature’s Network project (naturesnetwork.org). Nature’s Network is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conservation in the Northeast, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural areas they inhabit. This product represents a regional network of habitats critical for sustaining populations of imperiled species, currently based on over 600 Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN). A number of additional datasets that augment or complement Habitat Condition for Imperiled Species, including Core Habitat for Imperiled Species, are also available in the Nature’s Network gallery. A detailed technical...
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The introduction of white pine blister rust, a fungus from Eastern Asia introduced to North America in the early 1900s, has inhibited the persistence of whitebark pine. Once white pine blister rust infects a tree, the fungus girdles branches and then main stem, eventually killing the tree. Since its introduction, white pine blister rust has continued to spread throughout North America with minimal environmental limitations. Within the Crown of the Continent ecosystem, up to 57% of trees have been infected or died due to white pine blister rust.At the time of this analysis, no geospatial data exists for white pine blister rust within the Crown landscape. However, because this rust is most abundant in cool and wet...
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Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likely to occur, expressing results in terms of species persistence to help resource managers understand the long-term sustainability of bird populations.
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Nature’s Network Conservation Design depicts an interconnected network of lands and waters that, if protected, will support a diversity of fish, wildlife, and natural resources that the people of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region depend upon. This map serves as the “cover page” for the Nature’s Network (naturesnetwork.org) suite of products: it outlines some of the most important natural areas in the region and provides an entry point to learn more about the information used to identify them. The Conservation Design represents a combination of three Nature’s Network products: 1) the terrestrial core-connector network, 2) aquatic core areas, and 3) core habitat for imperiled species. The Terrestrial Core-connector...
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This project produced long simulations (multi-decadal to multi-century in scale) of past, present, and future regional climate at a grid spacing of 50 kilometers (km) over North America and at a grid spacing of 15 km over western and eastern North America. These model runs were the first attempt to achieve coordinated, high-resolution downscaling with such wide geographic and temporal coverage. The objectives of this project were to (1) understand the nature of climate change and variability, (2) quantify the climate-driven responses and feedbacks of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, wildfire, the hydrologic cycle, and alpine glaciers, and (3) provide climate information in a form that is useful to a wide range...
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
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The role of lynx dispersal in maintaining their populations at the landscape scale is unclear. A large proportion of local lynx populations are known to disperse following a snowshoe hare population crash, but whether these dispersal events contribute to the cyclic dynamics of neighboring populations is not well understood. If lynx dispersal does play an important role in lynx population dynamics then the conservation of dispersal corridors is critical to maintaining those dynamics. However, we currently have no information on the habitat requirements of dispersing lynx in relation to human land use, such as housing developments, road building, timber harvest, and mining, all of which could have a substantial impact...
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Human impacts occurring throughout the DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on streams in the region which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
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The Terrestrial Core-connector Network is one of a suite of products from the Nature’s Network project (naturesnetwork.org). Nature’s Network is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conservation in the Northeast, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural areas they inhabit. This product consists of two components: core areas and connectors. A number of additional datasets that augment or complement the core-connector network, including Road-bounded Natural Blocks that surround the cores areas and a set of Grassland Bird Core Areas, are also available in the Nature’s Network gallery: https://nalcc.databasin.org/galleries/8f4dfe780c444634a45ee4acc930a055. A detailed technical...
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The mission of the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) is to define, design and deliver landscapes capable of sustaining natural and cultural resources at desired levels now and into the future. The GCPO describes both a unique geographic region as well as a new kind of conservation partnership. We are part of a national network of Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). LCCs are partnerships among federal agencies, regional organizations, states, tribes, NGOs, universities and others, all of whom leverage resources to define a common vision for sustaining natural resources within a region. The GCPO LCC conducts research, develops tools that improve natural resource...
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Core Habitat for Imperiled Species is one of a suite of products from the Nature’s Network project (naturesnetwork.org). Nature’s Network is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conservation in the Northeast, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural areas they inhabit. This product represents a regional network of the most intact of habitats estimated to be most important for sustaining populations of imperiled species, currently based on over 600 Species of Greatest Conservation Need (SGCN).A number of additional datasets that augment or complement Core Habitat for Imperiled Species, including Habitat Condition for Imperiled Species (the more extensive dataset from...
map background search result map search result map Impacts of Climate Change and Melting Glaciers on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska Predicting Climate Change Threats to Key Estuarine Habitats and Ecosystem Services in the Pacific Northwest Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species Grizzly Bear Occupancy Model, Relative probability of occupancy in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Habitat Condition for Imperiled Species, Northeast U.S. Terrestrial Core-Connector Network, Northeast U.S. Nature’s Network Conservation Design, Northeast U.S. Core Habitat for Imperiled Species, Northeast U.S Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Research and Publications Authored and Supported by GBLCC Staff Crown of the Continent Landscape Conservation Design Whitebark Pine- Mountain Pine Beetle Whitebark Pine- White Pine Blister Rust Movement Patterns, Dispersal Behavior, and Survival of Lynx in Relation to Snowshoe Hare Abundance in the Boreal Forest At-risk species distribution analyzer for predicting trends Predicting Climate Change Threats to Key Estuarine Habitats and Ecosystem Services in the Pacific Northwest Crown of the Continent Landscape Conservation Design Grizzly Bear Occupancy Model, Relative probability of occupancy in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem Whitebark Pine- White Pine Blister Rust Whitebark Pine- Mountain Pine Beetle Impacts of Climate Change and Melting Glaciers on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska Research and Publications Authored and Supported by GBLCC Staff Core Habitat for Imperiled Species, Northeast U.S Habitat Condition for Imperiled Species, Northeast U.S. Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Terrestrial Core-Connector Network, Northeast U.S. SERAP: Assessment of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Terrestrial Species SERAP: Modeling of Global and Land Use Change Impacts Nature’s Network Conservation Design, Northeast U.S. Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Movement Patterns, Dispersal Behavior, and Survival of Lynx in Relation to Snowshoe Hare Abundance in the Boreal Forest At-risk species distribution analyzer for predicting trends Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment)