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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Northeast CASC > FY 2016 Projects > Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds? ( Show direct descendants )

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_____Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds?
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Abstract (from ESA): Estimating population size and resource selection functions (RSFs) are common approaches in applied ecology for addressing wildlife conservation and management objectives. Traditionally such approaches have been undertaken separately with different sources of data. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) provides a hierarchical framework for jointly estimating density and multi‐scale resource selection, and data integration techniques provide opportunities for improving inferences from SCR models. Despite the added benefits, there have been few applications of SCR‐RSF integration, potentially due to complexities of specifying and fitting such models. Here, we extend a previous integrated SCR‐RSF model...
Climate change is affecting species and ecosystems across the Northeast and Midwest U.S. Natural resource managers looking to maintain ecological function and species persistence have requested information to improve resource management in the face of climate change. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. An interdisciplinary team worked to understand the mechanisms that are driving...
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects1,2,3,4,5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change6. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5....
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): Many varieties of short-duration extreme weather pose a threat to global crop production, food security and farmer livelihoods1,2,3,4. Hourly exposure to extreme heat has been identified as detrimental to crop yields1,5; however, the influence of hourly rainfall intensity and extremes on yields remains unknown4,6,7. Here, we show that while maize and soy yields in the United States are severely damaged by the rarest hourly rainfall extremes (≥50 mm hr−1), they benefit from heavy rainfall up to 20 mm hr−1, roughly the heaviest downpour of the year on average. We also find that yields decrease in response to drizzle (0.1–1 mm hr−1), revealing a complex pattern of yield sensitivity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ZSL): The use of remote cameras is widespread in wildlife ecology, yet few examples exist of their utility for collecting environmental data. We used a novel camera trap method to evaluate the accuracy of gridded snow data in a mountainous region of the northeastern US. We were specifically interested in assessing (1) how snow depth observations from remote cameras compare with gridded climate data, (2) the sources of error associated with the gridded data and (3) the influence of spatial sampling on bias. We compared daily observations recorded by remote cameras with Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS ) gridded predictions using data from three winters (2014–2016). Snow depth observations were...
Abstract (from Springer Link): Conservation planning is increasingly using “coarse filters” based on the idea of conserving “nature’s stage”. One such approach is based on ecosystems and the concept of ecological integrity, although myriad ways exist to measure ecological integrity. To describe our ecosystem-based index of ecological integrity (IEI) and its derivative index of ecological impact (ecoImpact), and illustrate their applications for conservation assessment and planning in the northeastern United States. We characterized the biophysical setting of the landscape at the 30 m cell resolution using a parsimonious suite of settings variables. Based on these settings variables and mapped ecosystems, we computed...
Abstract (from Springer Link): Species-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning. We tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird...
Montane regions support distinct animal and plant communities that are widely viewed as communities of high conservation concern due to their significant contribution to regional biodiversity. These communities are also thought to be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenically caused stressors such as climate change, which is generally expected to cause upward shifts and potential range restrictions in montane plant and animal distributions. In the northern Appalachian Mountains of North America, not only is it becoming warmer at mid-elevations but the ecotone between the northern hardwood and the montane coniferous forests is also shifting. Therefore, species that are limited by climate or habitat along the elevational...
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): Understanding global change processes that threaten species viability is critical for assessing vulnerability and deciding on appropriate conservation actions1. Here we combine individual-based2 and metapopulation models to estimate the effects of climate change on annual breeding productivity and population viability up to 2100 of a common forest songbird, the Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens), across the Central Hardwoods ecoregion, a 39.5-million-hectare area of temperate and broadleaf forests in the USA. Our approach integrates local-scale, individual breeding productivity, estimated from empirically derived demographic parameters that vary with landscape and climatic...
Abstract (from Science Direct): Urban development is a principal driver of landscape change affecting the integrity of ecological systems and the capacity of the landscape to support species. We developed an urban growth model (SPRAWL), evaluated it with hindcasting, and used it to simulate urban growth across the northeastern United States between 2010 and 2080 under four alternative scenarios. In the model, urban growth is constrained by demand for new development for each time step at the subregional scale. Demand is subsequently allocated to local application panes (5 km on a side within 15 km window) using a unique landscape context matching algorithm, such that the more historical development that occurred...
Abstract (from British Ecological Society): A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology—niche theory and predator–prey theory—provides an opportunity to understand how...
Remote telemetry data loggers are commonly used for monitoring wildlife species. Although remote telemetry data loggers provide reliable microhabitat use data, few studies have used them to evaluate landscape-scale, temporal, and spatial habitat use. We installed 3 data loggers along a mountain ridgeline that was being developed for a commercial wind farm in northern New Hampshire, USA, to monitor use of a high-elevation forest by American martens (Martes americana). We tested 1) the efficacy of data loggers to record presence–absence and index space use in a 6.75-km2 area, validating marten locations using radiotelemetry and camera traps; and 2) whether there were diel and seasonal biases of data logger detections....
Abstract (from Wiley): Populations along geographical range limits are often exposed to unsuitable climate and low resource availability relative to core populations. As such, there has been a renewed focus on understanding the factors that determine range limits to better predict how species will respond to global change. Using recent theory on range limits and classical understanding of density dependence, we evaluated the influence of resource availability on the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus along its trailing range edge. We estimated variation in population density, habitat use, survival, and parasite loads to test the Great Escape Hypothesis (GEH), i.e. that density dependence determines, in part, a species'...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Diversity and Distributions): Aim Identifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Location New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. Methods Using causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019) and future (2080s) distributions of ecologically important mammalian carnivores and competitors along range limits in the northeastern US under two global climate models (GCMs) and a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) of projected snow and forest biomass change. Results Our hypothesis that...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Landscape capability (LC) models are a spatial tool with potential applications in conservation planning. We used survey data to validate LC models as predictors of occurrence and abundance at broad and fine scales for American woodcock (Scolopax minor) and ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus). Landscape capability models were reliable predictors of occurrence but were less indicative of relative abundance at route (11.5–14.6 km) and point scales (0.5–1 km). As predictors of occurrence, LC models had high sensitivity (0.71–0.93) and were accurate (0.71–0.88) and precise (0.88 and 0.92 for woodcock and grouse, respectively). Models did not predict point-scale abundance independent of the ability to predict occurrence...