Skip to main content
Advanced Search

Filters: Date Range: {"choice":"year"} (X) > Types: Citation (X)

Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Southwest CASC > FY 2013 Projects > Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World > Approved Products ( Show all descendants )

2 results (11ms)   

Location

Folder
ROOT
_ScienceBase Catalog
__National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
___Southwest CASC
____FY 2013 Projects
_____Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World
______Approved Products
View Results as: JSON ATOM CSV
Abstract (from Springer): Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability...
Abstract (from http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124023/meta): Temperature variability in the Southwest US is investigated using skew-normal probability distribution functions (SN PDFs) fitted to observed wintertime daily maximum temperature records. These PDFs vary significantly between years, with important geographical differences in the relationship between the central tendency and tails, revealing differing linkages between weather and climate. The warmest and coldest extremes do not necessarily follow the distribution center. In some regions one tail of the distribution shows more variability than does the other. For example, in California the cold tail is more variable while the warm...