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National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) along the East Coast of the United States protect habitat for a host of wildlife species, while also offering storm surge protection, improving water quality, supporting nurseries for commercially important fish and shellfish, and providing recreation opportunities for coastal communities. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the ability of NWRs to protect our nation’s natural resources and to sustain their many beneficial services. Through this project, researchers are collaborating with...
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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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The Pacific Ocean is home to a number of low-lying, coastal national parks and wildlife refuges. These public lands are situated on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise and flooding during storms. Because of their low-lying nature and limited availability of space, ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on these islands are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Sea-level rise will further exacerbate the impact of storms on island parks and refuges by increasing wave-driven coastal flooding, with consequences for ecological and human communities alike. However, most assessments of future conditions at coastal national parks and refuges consider only permanent...
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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Natural resource managers consistently identify invasive species as one of the biggest challenges for ecological adaptation to climate change. Yet climate change is often not considered during their management decision making. Given the many ways that invasive species and climate change will interact, such as changing fire regimes and facilitating the migration of high priority species, it is more critical than ever to integrate climate adaptation science and natural resource management. The coupling of climate adaptation and invasive species management remains limited by a lack of information, personnel, and funding. Those working on ecological adaptation to climate change have reported that information is not...
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Quaking aspen populations are declining in much of the West due to altered fire regimes, competition with conifers, herbivory, drought, disease, and insect outbreaks. Aspen stands typically support higher bird biodiversity and abundance than surrounding habitat types, and maintaining current distribution and abundance of several bird species in the northern Great Basin is likely tied to the persistence of aspen in the landscape. This project examined the effects of climate change on aspen and associated bird communities by coupling empirical models of avian-habitat relationships with landscape simulations of vegetation community and disturbance dynamics under various climate change scenarios. Field data on avian...
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
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Climate and land use change will strongly affect tropical island ecosystems and trust species (like migratory birds and threatened and endangered species). The risks of significant negative impacts are likely to be higher in these island systems than in many temperate regions of the world because of the limited size of their land masses, high numbers of species that only exist in narrowly defined regions, and expectations that tropical environments will experience greater changes in temperature. Tropical island communities are faced with making important decisions related to adaptation that could impact the health of important natural resources and ecosystems. However, a lack of scientific guidance and information...
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Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during the reproductive season, so premature harvest of adult male turkeys may disrupt reproductive behaviors and reduce population growth. In addition to hunter harvest, climate change can also impact population growth of wild turkeys. Local and broad-scale regional changes in precipitation and temperature associated with a changing...
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Species that inhabit the arid Southwest are adapted to living in hot, dry environments. Yet the increasing frequency and severity of drought in the region may create conditions that even these hardy species can’t survive. This project examined the impacts of drought in the southwestern U.S. on four of the region’s iconic species: desert bighorn sheep, American pronghorn, scaled quail, and Rio Grande cutthroat trout. Grasping the impacts of drought on fish and wildlife is critical for management planning in the Southwest, as climate models project warmer, drier conditions for the region in the future. Species are known to respond to environmental changes such as drought in different ways. Often, before changes...
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Amphibians in the US Caribbean, like the well-known coquí frog, are particularly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Coquí frogs are represented by 17 species across Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands and include several mountainous and coastal species that are threatened by extreme heat and drying, loss of coastal freshwater marshes through saltwater intrusion, or both. Over the past decade, the Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center has invested in several scientific investigations to understand how global climate change is likely to affect the local climate of the US Caribbean and how sensitive different coquí species are to changes in local climate and habitat conditions in Puerto Rico. This project...
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Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation threaten the persistence of the Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. This subspecies appears to be more vulnerable to drought than more northern subspecies, because it occupies small and fragmented streams which are at greater risk of drying up during drought. Most notably, in 2002 drought in the Southwest resulted in the loss of 14 different Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations – about 10% of the total population. While it is known that drought is having an effect on Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the specific ways in which individuals and populations are affected by drought...
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As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of droughts in North America are expected to increase, leading to a wide range of social and ecological impacts. Identifying these impacts and the consequences for ecosystems and human communities are essential for effective drought management. Equally important is to improve the capacity of nature and people to prepare for and cope with drought by identifying management strategies that benefit both. An interdisciplinary working group within the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) was established by the U.S. Geological Survey, The Wildlife Conservation Society, and The Nature Conservancy to synthesize our current understanding of...
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Water in the western United States is disappearing, and several states are facing severe water shortages as drought conditions worsen. Many streams are drying up, and there is growing concern that this trend will only continue as climate change produces warmer and drier conditions. The loss of stream ecosystems has far reaching ecological, social, and economic implications. Species that depend on these ecosystems for habitat will be at greater risk of extinction and humans will lose vital sources of water relied upon for agriculture, drinking water, and recreation. This project aimed to identify how water availability is changing in the West, focusing specifically on when and where streams go dry. Researchers...
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Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is usually considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been numerous challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions but also due to insufficient scientific information...
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Barrier islands are exposed to a range of natural and human-caused changes, including hurricanes, sea-level rise, and dredging. These changes have the potential to influence the ability of barrier islands to serve as a first-line of defense for the mainland during storm events. Gulf Islands National Seashore, a National Park Service unit in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Mississippi, is predominantly comprised of barrier islands and faces immediate challenges, including erosion that washes out roads and sand dunes and the adverse impacts on cultural and natural resources from exposure to saltwater. Managers require realistic estimates of both the vulnerability of the park’s natural and cultural...
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Migratory birds may be hit especially hard by climate change – particularly waterbirds that depend on wetlands as resting and feeding sites during their journey between breeding and non-breeding grounds. California’s Central Valley and the interior basins of southeastern Oregon and northeastern California provide some of the most critical wetlands resources to migratory waterbirds in the western U.S. However, these wetlands rely heavily on snow pack and precipitation for water supply, both of which have already decreased due to climate change. Of further concern is the fact that drought conditions resulting from climate change could exacerbate existing water allocation issues in the region. Researchers are examining...
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Severe droughts cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the globe—even in areas with cooler climates. Mitigating the negative effects of climate change, in particular increased drought frequency and severity, poses a major challenge to forest managers. Managers are searching for strategies that minimize the negative effects of drought on forests (i.e. increase their resistance to drought) and maximize the ability of forests to recover after a drought (i.e. improve their resilience). Evidence suggests that forests with certain combinations of tree species, sizes, and stem densities are better able to withstand and recover from drought. The goal of this study was to identify which...
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In the Northeastern U.S., climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, less rain is predicted to fall in between these extreme events and air temperatures are also expected to rise. This combination of conditions will likely expose the Northeast to both floods and droughts that will have significant ecological, social, and economic implications for the region. Infrastructure damage from extreme storm events, increased competition for water supplies during droughts, and the potential loss of wildlife and habitats are some of the various challenges facing resource managers and decision makers. Management actions that mitigate the damage from extreme floods and droughts...
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Global change processes are producing shifts in temperature, precipitation, and seasonal streamflow regimes across North America. Much of the floodplain hydrology in the U.S. is managed through water control operations, often implemented on short time scales (e.g., weekly decisions), in response to short-term changes in precipitation. This operational model does not account for potential long-term trends, such as increased recurrence or shifts in seasonal timing of high flow events within a year. Therefore, polices that only focus on short-time scales and recent historic conditions may not perform as well under altered climate regimes. This uncertainty in future floodplain conditions is concerning for a variety...
map background search result map search result map Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin The Impacts of Drought on Fish and Wildlife in the Southwestern U.S. Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in Key Conservation Regions of the Western U.S. River’s End: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying in the Western United States The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Climate Change Implications for the Conservation of Amphibians in Tropical Environments Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature Slowing the Flow for Climate Resilience: Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Flood and Drought Events Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Creating a North Central Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NC RISCC) Management Network Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S. A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy Water, Water Everywhere: Adapting Water Control Operations and Floodplain Conservation Planning to Global Change Advancing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for High Elevation and Endangered Lowland Coquí Frogs in the U.S. Caribbean River’s End: Mapping Patterns of Stream Drying in the Western United States Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Water, Water Everywhere: Adapting Water Control Operations and Floodplain Conservation Planning to Global Change The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Assessing the Impacts of Drought on Migratory Waterbirds in Key Conservation Regions of the Western U.S. A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy Slowing the Flow for Climate Resilience: Reducing Vulnerability to Extreme Flood and Drought Events Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Creating a North Central Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change (NC RISCC) Management Network Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico The Impacts of Drought on Fish and Wildlife in the Southwestern U.S. Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S. Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands