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Elodea spp. (Elodea) is Alaska’s first known invasive aquatic plant, first discovered in urban lakes in 2010. The combination of human pathways and climate change related shifts in seasonality and temperature have resulted in Elodea’s range expansion into Alaska’s freshwater resources. Elodea transmission often occurs when plant fragments get entangled in seaplane rudders and are carried to remote waterbodies where they quickly establish dense plant growth. This growth inhibits seaplane access and drastically alters aquatic ecosystems. Recent research showed that Elodea can have significant negative impacts on parks, subsistence, aviation‐related recreation, and Alaska’s salmon fisheries. For example, the economic...
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Alaska’s high-latitude, arctic landscape places it at the front lines of environmental change. Factors such as rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and associated shifts in growing degree days, summer season length, extreme heat, and the timing of spring thaw and autumn frost are rapidly changing Alaska’s ecosystems and associated human systems. The ability of Alaska’s land managers and communities to predict these changes will profoundly affect their ability to adapt. The State of Alaska recognizes the scope and magnitude of these changes and has made it a priority to ensure anticipated change is incorporated into local and regional planning. This project will involve collaboration with agency...
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Alaska has complex topography, with its extensive coastlines, dozens of islands, and mountain ranges that contain the tallest peaks in North America. Topography can have a strong influence on temperature and precipitation, therefore accurate representations of the terrain can improve the quality of simulations of past and future climate conditions. The spatial resolution of globally-available climate data is typically too coarse (~80 to 100 km) to adequately detect local landscape features, meaning these models aren’t useful for predicting future conditions in Alaska. In order for the state to adequately prepare for and adapt to changing conditions, high-resolution climate data is needed. One solution for acquiring...
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Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project...
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Suicide Basin is a glacier-fed lake that branches off Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau, Alaska. Since 2011, Suicide Basin has been collecting melt- and rainwater each summer, creating a temporary glacier-dammed lake. Water that accumulates typically gets released through channels that run beneath the glacier. These channels are normally blocked by ice, but if the water pressure gets too high the channel breaks open, rapidly draining the basin in what is known as an “outburst flood”. In past years, these events have led to flooding along Mendenhall Lake and Mendenhall River in the most heavily populated neighborhood of Juneau. Because of the threats posed to infrastructure in the Mendenhall Valley, it is critical that...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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Salmon are an important resource to the ecosystems, economy, and culture of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. However, salmon are under increasing stress due to warming water temperatures and decreasing stream flow. Groundwater is a major contributor to many streams that can help maintain fish habitat during low flows and contributes cooler water that regulates stream temperatures in the warm summer months. As the climate warms, the ability for groundwater to cool stream temperatures will likely become more critical to streams that are used by salmon, such as Beaver Creek near Kenai, Alaska. Preliminary analysis of historical streamflow data indicates that on average, Beaver Creek receives nearly 80% of its flow...
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Berry-producing plants, a key resource in Alaska Native communities, provide primary subsistence and have been integral to maintaining cultural cohesion, sense of place, and physical ties to the surrounding landscape. Despite the importance of berry-producing plants, relatively little is known about their vulnerability to changes in climate and environmental conditions. The dynamics of insect populations are strongly related to climate; however, very little is known about the insect pollinators of berry plants in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems. This interaction between plants and pollinators is critical to plant communities and for providing fruit resources to Indigenous communities. Numerous plant species...
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Salmon that spawn and rear in Southeast Alaska watersheds are critically important to the region’s economic vitality and cultural identity. An estimated 90% of rural households in Southeast Alaska use salmon. Environmental changes that compromise the ability of these streams to support salmon could have dramatic consequences for the region. In particular, there is concern that climate change could undermine the capacity of the region’s streams to support productive fisheries. As a result, regional stakeholders are interested in identifying some of the potential impacts of climate change on watersheds that support abundant salmon. These stakeholders include federal and state agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,...
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The thawing of ice-rich soils in permafrost landscapes, a process known as thermokarst, can result in profound impacts on the energy and water balance, carbon fluxes, wildlife habitat, and existing infrastructure in the local area. The Alaska Thermokarst Model is a “state-and-transition" model being developed to simulate landscape evolution in polygonal tundra landscapes commonly found on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. This study will focus on the second step of the landscape evolution process – initiation of the thermokarst process through the concept of “climate priming” of the landscape. “Climate priming” occurs when there is high early and total winter snow precipitation, above normal winter temperatures,...
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The Situk River is among the most productive resource in Alaska, with nine native fish species and 10 times the density of juvenile coho salmon than any other Southeast Alaskan watershed. The associated fisheries in the Situk River and its adjoining estuary drive a $2 million economy for the community of Yakutat (population 600), with 89 percent of the households harvesting salmon for subsistence purposes. The Yakutat foreland area that encompasses the Situk River watershed is a vast landscape of low gradient drainages with forested mosaics of side channels and pools that are responsible for up to 80 percent of coho salmon production. These highly productive aquatic habitats are sensitive to even small shifts in...
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The Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (AK CASC) has a strong track record of working collaboratively with government entities to co-produce actionable science in areas including: high resolution dynamical and statistical downscaling, process and mechanistic-based ecosystem modeling, and glacier dynamics. The AK CASC is therefore uniquely positioned to facilitate and conduct science that informs specific management decisions within the state. The AK CASC is hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF) with consortium partners University of Alaska Anchorage and University of Alaska Southeast. To learn more about Host Agreement Projects and University of Alaska - Fairbanks projects, visit: https://akcasc.org/about-us/projects-overview/...
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Retreating glaciers are an iconic image of climate change;yet not all glaciers in Alaska are actively retreating, and a few glaciers are even advancing. While this contrasting behavior can be misleading for the casual observer, variable responses between glaciers in a changing climate are expected. Glaciers act as conveyor belts that transport snow and ice from high elevations, where it does not melt, down to low elevations, where it does melt. A change in climate can impact the amount of snow and ice that accumulates (accumulation), the way snow and ice melt (ablation), or the conveyor belt (ice dynamics). While these impacts vary with elevation and glacier shape, glacier changes have major implications for downstream...
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Major floods in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi that potentially threaten life, property, and culturally significant resources and ecosystems are caused by mechanisms related to intense precipitation for both locations as well as snow melt-based processes for Alaska. Small, high-gradient, and heavily vegetated watersheds with direct contribution to the ocean are common in both locations. To understand how climate change may affect flooding in these regions, an analysis of the underlying mechanisms that cause flooding is needed. The scope of this study includes an analysis of annual peak-streamflow records from long-term streamgages in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi to determine whether the main flood-producing mechanisms...
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Stream discharge and temperature patterns are being altered by climate change, but documenting these changes on the community level is challenging without community partners trained in suitable data collection techniques. The USGS Juneau Field Office is collaborating with the Yakutat Tlingit Tribe (YTT), the Southeast Alaska Tribal Ocean Research (SEATOR) network, and the Southeast Alaska Watershed Coalition (SAWC) to integrate stream discharge and stream temperature monitoring into ongoing Tribal-led climate adaptation, water quality, and species management projects. Stream discharge and temperature data is limited in Southeast Alaska and improving the spatial coverage of this data would be mutually beneficial...
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In Alaska, extreme climate events such as very warm days, very cold days, and intense storms can have a range of impacts, from damaging infrastructure to disrupting the tourism economy. For example, in 2013, a colder than normal spring led to late ice break-up and rapid thaw, causing massive flooding along the Yukon River that displaced roughly 500 residents in a single town. Meanwhile, in Denali, cold May temperatures delayed openings for some tourist-related businesses. Previous work has identified which atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with extreme events, information which can help refine forecasts and downscale future climate projections. The goal of this project is to test whether these patterns...
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The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McCarthy Road in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve. In light of this, resource managers need highly accurate, localized climate information to assess and plan for future landslide hazards. This project addresses concerns and management implications in these focus areas with emerging issues that have been outlined...
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Areas along the Arctic coast are changing the fastest among all of Earth’s habitats due to climate change. The Arctic coast is a fragile ecosystem that provides habitat for migratory birds, endangered species, and species critical for local subsistence living. In this area, permafrost is thawing rapidly, changing how much and when water reaches rivers, ponds, lakes, wetlands and groundwater. In addition, there is also a growing interest in oil and gas resource exploration. With ongoing permafrost thaw, future warming, and interests in oil and gas extraction in the coastal plain (also known as the 1002 area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it is urgent to improve the understanding of this area and its vulnerability...
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In the Gulf of Alaska, streams will experience more dramatic low water events, interspersed with larger and potentially more frequent high flow events in the coming decades. Reduced stream flows are likely to occur due to diminished snowpack and seasonal droughts, while higher flow events are likely to occur with more frequent storms and rain-on-snow events. These changes are likely to influence the growth trajectories of juvenile salmon, such as coho salmon and chinook salmon, that live up to two years in freshwater before migrating to the ocean. Stream flows can influence juvenile salmon growth by modifying food availability, water clarity, temperature, and predation risk. This high-resolution study examines...
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Salmon runs are an important time when salmon migrate from the ocean to freshwater, swimming upriver to reach spawning beds. These annual events provide an important food source for both predators and for local communities. However, Recent declines in salmon runs have caused hardship in subsistence fishing communities throughout Alaska, particularly in the Yukon River Basin. To adapt to a changing climate, fishing communities, natural resource managers, and scientists need to measure and understand climate impacts onto salmon runs in this region. To monitor changes in salmon populations and manage fisheries, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG), U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), and Tanana Chiefs...
map background search result map search result map Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on River Food Webs and Salmon Productivity in Southeast Alaska Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2017-2021) Climate Adaptation in Yukon River Fisheries: A Robust Alternative Approach to Assess Salmon Run Size Using Environmental DNA Assessing the Vulnerability of Alaska’s Glaciers in a Changing Climate Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures Detecting and Predicting Aquatic Invasive Species Transmission Via Seaplanes in Alaska Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi Identification of Regions in Alaska Susceptible to Landscape Deformation Due to “Climate Priming” of Permafrost Soils Applying Climate Change Modeling to Selected Key Factors in Ecosystem Health and Adaptation in Alaska Integrating Stream Discharge and Temperature Monitoring for Tribal Partners in Southeast Alaska Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Enhancing Climate Adaptation for Native Communities in Western Alaska: Linking Pollinator Diversity and Abundance to Berry Production in a Rapidly Changing Environment Community Engagement in a Stream-network Assessment of Salmon Thermal-habitat in the Situk River Watershed of Yakutat, Alaska Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Community Engagement in a Stream-network Assessment of Salmon Thermal-habitat in the Situk River Watershed of Yakutat, Alaska Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on River Food Webs and Salmon Productivity in Southeast Alaska Integrating Stream Discharge and Temperature Monitoring for Tribal Partners in Southeast Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Developing High Resolution Climate Data for Alaska Climate Adaptation in Yukon River Fisheries: A Robust Alternative Approach to Assess Salmon Run Size Using Environmental DNA Assessing the Vulnerability of Alaska’s Glaciers in a Changing Climate Detecting and Predicting Aquatic Invasive Species Transmission Via Seaplanes in Alaska Identification of Regions in Alaska Susceptible to Landscape Deformation Due to “Climate Priming” of Permafrost Soils Applying Climate Change Modeling to Selected Key Factors in Ecosystem Health and Adaptation in Alaska Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks (2017-2021) Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi Enhancing Climate Adaptation for Native Communities in Western Alaska: Linking Pollinator Diversity and Abundance to Berry Production in a Rapidly Changing Environment Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience