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Assessing the vulnerability of wildlife species to a changing climate is critical for understanding what adaptation actions need to be taken to minimize negative impacts. The ability of species to adapt to the impacts of climate change (i.e., their adaptive capacity) is an important factor to consider when assessing vulnerability. For example, organisms can possess traits that allow them to move to areas of favorable habitat or change their phenotypes (observable characteristics) in response to changing environmental conditions. Additionally, an organism’s traits can adapt to a changing external environment over multiple generations through evolutionary processes. Recent scientific evidence suggests that “evolutionary...
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Each year, plants and animals undergo certain life cycle events, such as breeding or flowering. These phenological events are linked to weather and climate, and as temperature and precipitation patterns have changed, some spring events are occurring earlier. These changes in plant phenology can have cascading effects on wildlife such as elk, moose, and mule deer, which depend on plants for food. It’s thought that the quality of forage available in the spring could play a critical role for these big game species, which need to replenish energy depleted during the winter, in order to survive and successfully reproduce. Climate change will alter plant phenology, which in turn is likely to effect when, where, and for...
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Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time, therefore advance understanding of a) the dynamics of and responses to future wildfire, and b)management planning for and adaptation to those projected changes. Through existing research-management collaborations, the Alaska CASC has iteratively refined its approach to actionable (both by fire managers and agency planners)...
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The Pacific Northwest is a hotspot for temperate amphibian biodiversity and is home to many species of salamanders and frogs found nowhere else on earth. Changing climatic conditions threaten habitat for many of these species and may also enhance the risk of disease and invasive species encroachment. State and federal wildlife agencies are in the process of evaluating these threats, but information is lacking. Wildlife managers need to know: the availability of suitable habitat under different climate scenarios; the vulnerability of at-risk amphibians to different diseases, and how climate change will affect that vulnerability; and the potential future spread of harmful invasive species like American bullfrogs,...
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The hydrology of the Yukon River Basin has changed over the last several decades as evidenced by a variety of discharge, gravimetric, and geochemical analyses. The Indigenous Observation Network (ION), a community-based project, was initiated by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council and USGS. Capitalizing on existing USGS monitoring and research infrastructure and supplementing USGS collected data, ION investigates changes in surface water geochemistry and active layer dynamics throughout the Yukon River Basin. Over 1600 samples of surface water geochemistry (i.e., major ions, dissolved organic carbon, and 18O and 2H) have been collected at 35 sites throughout the Yukon River and its major tributaries...
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Berries are a crucial nutritional and cultural resource to communities and ecosystems in boreal, subarctic and arctic areas; however, berry abundance and the timing of the berry lifecycle is becoming more variable and unpredictable due to climate change. Climate adaptation plans across the state of Alaska identify changes in berry timing and availability as primary concerns and point to the need for increased monitoring and research on how climate change is influencing berries. While there is a large body of work on plants that produce berries, much of the information is not accessible to those who need it most: land managers and communities planning for an uncertain future. This project will address this critical...
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Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety. As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding...
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With increasing sea surface temperatures due to climate change, harmful algal blooms in Alaska marine waters are becoming more severe, threatening food security and public health by reducing availability and safety of shellfish and other marine food resources. Paralytic shellfish poisoning, a neurotoxin primarily produced by marine phytoplankton Alexandrium, is the most severe and pervasive biotoxin problem in Alaska and is regularly detected in shellfish at levels unsafe for human consumption. Illness and deaths have been attributed to paralytic shellfish poisoning in Alaska, yet there is still limited capacity for testing of harmful algal blooms for culturally important subsistence resources. Increasingly,...
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Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about potential future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An effective forward-looking fire science synthesis is urgently required to reflect the changing dimensions of human fire management, recognizing that fire causes, effects, impacts, and management are all interrelated...
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Ecosystems spanning the zones from “ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean” are home to relatively high levels of biodiversity; serve as conduits of nutrients to sensitive coastal environments; and are culturally and economically important to local communities. These systems are smaller and have unique geological and streamflow properties compared to more typical river systems and, because of this, it is not clear how they will respond to shifting climatic patterns. Both Hawaiian ridge-to-reef and Alaskan icefield-to-ocean ecosystems face the potential of climate-driven changes in extreme flow events, such as floods and droughts, that could dramatically change how critical nutrients are retained and transported....
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Snow avalanches alter mountain environments and have both beneficial and harmful effects on wildlife. Avalanches can benefit wildlife by creating open areas for grazing but can also be deadly when animals are buried in avalanche debris. Avalanches pose high risks to mountain goats because they inhabit rugged and steep terrain, but the actual impacts of avalanches on mountain goats remain unknown.  The goal of this project is to understand how avalanches impact mountain goat habitat and mortality in the Coast Mountains of southeast Alaska. The research team will use long-term data collected from 434 mountain goats outfitted with GPS collars from 2005 to 2022 and avalanche hazard maps to understand how mountain...
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The climate of the Southeast is changing rapidly. As streams warm and streamflow dynamics change due to climate and land-cover changes, previously unsuitable habitats may become hospitable for invasive species. Warmwater and large-river adapted invasive species such as Asian carps may move upstream as habitats that were previously too cold or had too little flow become welcoming environments for them as climate changes. The spread of invasive species will likely impact native fishes and dependent local economies like fishing and tourism. Within the Southeast, the Tennessee and Cumberland River Basins, located across 7 different US states, are among the most important in terms of total, narrow-ranged, and at-risk...
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Invasive species have had devastating effects on Pacific Island biodiversity, ecosystem services, food, infrastructure, culture, and public health. Meanwhile, climate change is expected to worsen droughts and wildfires, increase storm severity, and raise the temperature, acidity, and sea level, all of which exacerbate invasive species issues and complicate management. Invasive species managers in the area are concerned about the impacts of climate change but are not satisfied with the knowledge currently available to help address these threats. They critically need easily accessible information, tools, and products that can help improve invasive species management in the face of climate change. The Pacific Regional...
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Maui’s threatened Haleakalā silversword forms the foundation of a diverse high-elevation community on Haleakalā, and is an ideal species for assessing how this ecosystem is responding to climate change. The silversword’s striking appearance makes it one of Hawaiʻi’s most recognizable species, and it is one of the main attractions drawing 1-2 million tourists to Haleakalā National Park each year. The plant was once considered a conservation success, when active management led to a population recovery in the early 20th century. Unfortunately, silversword populations are now declining, and climate change – namely decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures – is thought to be responsible. The goal of this...
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Coral reefs are declining worldwide due to a combination of stressors, but climate induced ocean warming is the biggest threat. Warming oceans lead to ‘coral bleaching’ and frequent death, compromising the structure and function of reefs. The increasing frequency and severity of bleaching means that human intervention is needed to support the adaptive capacity of reefs. Most proposed interventions involve the movement of corals, but the outcomes of these strategies are almost completely unknown. To bridge this knowledge gap, this project aims to assess how restoration to enhance resilience within coral reefs can effectively reduce climate change threats while also gaining a better understanding of socio-cultural...
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Detailed, reliable projections of future changes in climate are needed by Hawai‘i’s resource managers, such as water utilities managers, land managers, conservation organizations, and decision makers. However, global climate models (or “general circulation models”), which are currently the most commonly used tool for projecting future climate variations, are known for representing large-scale climate patterns and are not ideal for simulating climate processes at small spatial scales, such as those relevant to Hawai’i’s climate. Traditionally, the technique of “downscaling” is used to bridge this gap between global climate models and local climate conditions. Due to the lack of downscaled datasets for Hawai’i, however,...
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In Hawaiʻi, a large percentage of historically forested areas have been lost, driven in part by changes in land use, such as the conversion of forests into pastures for livestock. This transformation has not only resulted in widespread loss of native biodiversity and important ecosystem functions but has also increased the risk of fire on the landscape. Though targeted restoration efforts have the potential to increase the abundance of native forests and to return important functions, a few key obstacles remain. First, existing restoration knowledge is often experiential and thus inaccessible. Second, restoration efforts face the challenges of a changing climate that is increasing temperatures and the occurrence...
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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2018 was a record-breaking year for wildfires in Hawai‘i with over 30,000 acres burned statewide, including the habitat of the Oʻahu chewstick, a critically endangered flowering plant with less than 50 individuals remaining. The frequency and severity of wildfire in Hawai‘i has been increasing, and this trend is predicted to worsen with climate change. Wildfires are promoted by highly flammable invasive plants, which can spread across the landscape, providing a widespread fuel source to feed large fires that are hard to control. However, different plant species vary in their flammability, so wildfire risk depends not only on climate, but also on which plants are present. A major concern is that new non-native plants...
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In order to better document, manage, and adapt to the impacts of future climate variability and change on diverse natural resources in Hawaiʻi and the US Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI), several regional climate research programs including the Pacific RISA, the PICCC, the NOAA RCSD, and the East-West Center came together in 2011-2012 to collaboratively produce the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) (Keener, 2012) for the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). Natural resource managers in sectors such as freshwater, coastal inundation and hazard response, and marine and terrestrial ecosystems need frequently updated summaries of regional and local climate trends, projections, and impacts...
map background search result map search result map Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems Linking Mule Deer Migration to Spring Green-Up in Wyoming Supporting a Collaborative Regional Assessment of Future Climate Impacts on Natural Resources in the Pacific Islands Can Evolution Help Wildlife Adapt to Climate Change? Exploring Evolutionary Adaptive Capacity (EVAC) and Bridging the Gap between Science and Management Yukon River Basin Indigenous Observation Network State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems Climate- and Land-Cover-Induced Shifts in the Distribution and Abundance of Invasive Fish and Their Impacts on Native Fish Communities in the Tennessee and Cumberland River Basins Preliminary Investigation of Machine Learning Approaches to Improve Projections of Future Climate in Hawai‘i Building Capacity for Managing Climate Change Strategies Through Tribal Monitoring of Harmful Algal Toxins in Subsistence Harvested Shellfish Alaska’s Berry Future: Planning for Changing Resources in an Altered Climate Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Ecological and Socio-Cultural Responses to Transplanting Corals to Enhance Reef Resilience Near Oʻahu Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Studying the Influence of Streamflow Variability on Fish Populations to Understand Nutrient Transport in Hawaiian and Alaskan Streams in a Changing Climate The Influence of Climate Change on the Vulnerability of At-Risk Amphibians to Disease and Invasive Species in the Northwest Evaluating How Snow Avalanches Impact Mountain Goat Populations in Southeast Alaska Climate Smart Restoration: Establishing Baselines and Developing Adaptive Management Approaches Advancing the Pacific Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Network Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems Ecological and Socio-Cultural Responses to Transplanting Corals to Enhance Reef Resilience Near Oʻahu Linking Mule Deer Migration to Spring Green-Up in Wyoming Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Spread of Fire-Promoting Plants in Hawai‘i: Assessing Emerging Threats to Rare Native Plants and Ecosystems Climate Smart Restoration: Establishing Baselines and Developing Adaptive Management Approaches Evaluating How Snow Avalanches Impact Mountain Goat Populations in Southeast Alaska The Influence of Climate Change on the Vulnerability of At-Risk Amphibians to Disease and Invasive Species in the Northwest Climate- and Land-Cover-Induced Shifts in the Distribution and Abundance of Invasive Fish and Their Impacts on Native Fish Communities in the Tennessee and Cumberland River Basins Preliminary Investigation of Machine Learning Approaches to Improve Projections of Future Climate in Hawai‘i Advancing the Pacific Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change Network Building Capacity for Managing Climate Change Strategies Through Tribal Monitoring of Harmful Algal Toxins in Subsistence Harvested Shellfish Alaska’s Berry Future: Planning for Changing Resources in an Altered Climate Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Yukon River Basin Indigenous Observation Network Can Evolution Help Wildlife Adapt to Climate Change? Exploring Evolutionary Adaptive Capacity (EVAC) and Bridging the Gap between Science and Management Studying the Influence of Streamflow Variability on Fish Populations to Understand Nutrient Transport in Hawaiian and Alaskan Streams in a Changing Climate Supporting a Collaborative Regional Assessment of Future Climate Impacts on Natural Resources in the Pacific Islands State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate