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Tens of millions of migratory birds are dependent on wetland and riparian stopovers in arid and semiarid regions of North America. Global climate change would superimpose even greater stress on these ecosystems as indicated by climate change model predictions of higher temperatures and less precipitation in the southwestern United States. In partnership with the University of Arizona, the Nebraska Cooperative Research Unit, and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USGS scientists have investigated (1) how climate change may alter the spacing and quality of critical wetland stopover habitats; (2) the sensitivities of migrating songbirds to loss of riparian forests due to climate change and water-use patterns; (3)...
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One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is the restoration of the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both the agricultural and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades flows into the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are...
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Thousands of plant and animal species are culturally important to the Indigenous peoples of North America. Global change is leading to major shifts in the abundance, distribution, and life history of these species, with concomitant effects on their value to the peoples for whom they are most culturally important. While a number of studies have begun to explore the futures of culturally significant species, these studies typically do so in isolation, focusing on individual plant species and single future scenarios, and involve little engagement with the people for whom such species are most important. This project seeks to fill this gap by examining the future of culturally important species as climate conditions...
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A team of USGS and academic researchers developed a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, enabling scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. The research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date and state-of-the-art downscaled climate projections for the U.S., using a range of plausible future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Second, a series of workshops were held to solicit input about climate-related data needs and to discuss best practices for accessing and using downscaled climate projections....
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The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contribute to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Researchers demonstrated the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments for predicting uncertainty. A BN was used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN was used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response...
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As the origin of three major basins that drain the Columbia, Missouri, and Saskatchewan rivers, Montana is the hydrologic apex for North America. The Northern Rocky Mountain region is home to some of the last remaining interconnected habitats for many native fishes, including the threatened bull trout and native westslope cutthroat trout. The Northern Rockies are also experiencing rapidly changing climate conditions, with temperatures rising at twice the global average. These changes are having a range of impacts on aquatic ecosystems, including warming stream temperatures and changing streamflow regimes. This region is also experiencing a rise in the expansion of alien invasive fish species, which further threaten...
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Migratory birds are important for recreation and tourism, contributing to a vibrant birdwatching industry in Alaska. Every spring, hundreds of birds migrate to their summer breeding grounds in Alaska and northern Canada. Their arrival is timed with the height of the spring green-up of plants, which provide the food necessary for birds to reproduce and raise their young. However, over the last fifty years, warming temperatures in Alaska as a result of climate change have prompted an earlier transition from winter to spring. The purpose of this project was to examine whether there have been changes in the timing of spring green-up in recent years (1985-2009) and, if so, whether migratory birds are adapting their migration...
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Scenario planning is one decision support method that can help natural resource managers incorporate information about uncertain future changes in climate into management decisions. To provide a proof of concept of the value of scenario planning in helping managers prepare for climate change, we conducted a pilot scenario planning effort aimed at helping state agencies in the northeastern United States develop climate-informed moose management goals and actions. To encourage participation by wildlife managers, we provided several opportunities for them to learn about scenario planning and examples of its application in natural resource management. We shared this information via guidance documents on incorporating...
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This project seeks to enhance the stewardship of historic buildings vulnerable to climate change impacts. As sea level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion threaten our nation’s cultural heritage, there is a critical need to ensure that climate change adaptation decisions, including what cultural resources will be “let go”, are transparent and informed by the opinion of people whose heritage is tied to those resources. This project aims to enhance an existing decision support framework that supports adaptation planning by the National Park Service at coastal parks. The researchers of this project will focus particularly on Cape Lookout National Seashore. The current decision support framework, called the...
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Winter conditions have changed substantially in the Great Lakes region over the last 50 years, with the region experiencing rising temperatures, declining lake ice cover, and increased lake-effect snow. These changes have direct implications for economically important wildlife, such as deer and waterfowl. Deer hunting alone contributes $482 million annually to Wisconsin’s economy. The goal of this project was to identify how winter severity, snowpack, and lake ice could change through the mid- and late-21st century, and how species such as the white-tailed deer and mallard duck will respond. Because currently available climate data is at too coarse a scale to provide information on future conditions for the Great...
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Human impacts occurring throughout the DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on streams in the region which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
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Aquatic ecosystems provide habitat and migration corridors to a myriad of species, including plants, fishes, amphibians, birds, mammals, and insects. These ecosystems typically contain relatively higher biodiversity than their terrestrial counterparts; yet, aquatic biodiversity loss in North America is occurring at a rate five times faster than in terrestrial ecosystems. One of the major causes of this accelerated biodiversity loss is climate change. In the last two decades, states in the Northeastern U.S. have developed management plans for protecting aquatic biodiversity. Recent plans consider the general impacts from climate change and include the protection of several habitat types which should promote biodiversity...
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Forests play a role in air quality by supplying the atmosphere with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors to ozone and aerosols. Different tree types emit different VOCs, each with different capacity to form ozone and aerosols. Therefore, shifts in forest composition may impact ozone and aerosol yields. Climate change is one of the expected drivers of forest change. In particular, the current range boundaries of a variety of species are expected to shift northward. The impacts of these climate-induced shifts in forest composition on air quality, particularly VOC emissions and subsequent ozone and aerosol formation, is little understood. This project aimed to explore the relative contribution of shifts in...
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Climate change is reshaping the abundance and distribution of sport fishes across the U.S., creating novel challenges for socially and economically important recreational fisheries. Existing fish and recreational fisheries data sets are invaluable given their broad geographic footprint and long-term data, but integration across datasets to inform management has been limited, leading to obstacles in collaborative research and management efforts. Agencies that manage recreational fisheries also conduct angler surveys to assess how anglers may affect fish populations, however they are rarely integrated with other datasets or with consideration of how climate change may affect the fish available to anglers. In this...
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Actionable science has evolved rapidly over the last decade, and the Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network has established itself as a leader in the field. The practice of actionable science is generally described as user-focused, action-oriented science that addresses pressing real-world climate adaptation challenges. It is also sometimes referred to as usable science, translational ecology, and coproduction. Successfully carrying out actionable science projects requires a range of skills, mindsets, and techniques in addition to scientific knowledge. Those skills can include mutual learning with stakeholders, attention to social and political context, iterative creative problem-solving, and interdisciplinary...
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Scientists and resource managers are in need of a better understanding of the status and trends of wildlife species and the vulnerability of these species to climate change. Effective prioritization of species and habitats for climate adaptation, endangered species management, and recreational and cultural hunting and fishing will require development, testing, and application of comprehensive strategies for conducting climate change vulnerability assessments. This project aims to build and test a method for more consistently assessing species vulnerability to climate change on a national scale. Project researchers will develop an indicator of species vulnerability that can be applied nationwide to support a...
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Inland recreational fishing, defined as primarily leisure-driven fishing in freshwaters, is a popular past-time which can provide substantial contributions to human consumption which are often overlooked at global scales. Here, we aim to establish a baseline of national inland recreational consumption estimates with species specificity to identify the nutritional composition and total use value of this recreational consumption.
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In 2010, 39 percent of the U.S.population lived near the coast. This population is expected to increase by 8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Coastal regions are also home to species and habitats that provide critical services to humans, such as wetlands that buffer coasts from storms. Therefore, sea-level rise and the associated changes in coastlines challenge both human communities and ecosystems. Understanding which coastal lands will be vulnerable to sea-level rise is critical for policy makers, land-use planners, and coastal residents. Focusing on the coastal region from Virginia to Maine, researchers examined a range of different possible sea-level rise scenarios, combined with information on features of the coastal...
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Recent extreme floods on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers have motivated decision-makers and resource managers to expaned floodplain conservation lands. Within Missouri, there are more than 85,000 acres of public conservation lands in large-river floodplains. Floodplain lands are highly dynamic and challenging to manage, particularly climatic conditions change. These lands have the potential to provide valuable ecosystem services, like wildlife habitat, nutrient processing, carbon sequestration, and flood-water storage, that produce economic values in terms of recreational spending, improved water quality, and decreased flood hazards. However, floodplain managers may need tools to help them understand changing...
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All peoples have a right to make meaningful plans for their future. For many Tribes in the northeast region of the United States, trends in the environment such as shifting lake levels, patterns of precipitation and other seasonal cycles pose potential problems. This includes financial burdens on Tribal governments and stresses on Tribal cultural practices such as harvesting medicinal plants and food staples such as wild rice. Consistent with the U.S. federal trust responsibility to Tribes, the Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) has key scientific resources for supporting Tribal adaptation planning in light of noted shifts in environmental trends. The primary activity of this project was for the College...
map background search result map search result map Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Climate, the Boreal Forest, and Moose: A Pilot Project for Scenario Planning to Inform Land and Wildlife Management SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Supporting Cooperation Between Tribes and Climate Scientists in the Northeast Region Understanding Climate Impacts on Native and Invasive Fish for Conservation, Management, and Economic Goals in the Northern Rockies The Future of Culturally Important Species in North America Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Developing an Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change to Support a Consistent Nationwide Approach to Assessing Vulnerability Estimating Global Inland Recreational Consumption to Adapt to Global Change Framework for Protecting Aquatic Biodiversity in the Northeast Under Changing Climates Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network Examining Diverse Management Objectives and Broadening Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Adaptation Planning of Historic Structures within the National Park System Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Integrating Multiple Data Sets to Inform Climate Adaptation Strategies for Inland Fish and Recreational Fishing Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Examining Diverse Management Objectives and Broadening Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Adaptation Planning of Historic Structures within the National Park System SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Climate, the Boreal Forest, and Moose: A Pilot Project for Scenario Planning to Inform Land and Wildlife Management Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Framework for Protecting Aquatic Biodiversity in the Northeast Under Changing Climates Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Supporting Cooperation Between Tribes and Climate Scientists in the Northeast Region FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Understanding Climate Impacts on Native and Invasive Fish for Conservation, Management, and Economic Goals in the Northern Rockies Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Developing an Indicator of Species Vulnerability to Climate Change to Support a Consistent Nationwide Approach to Assessing Vulnerability The Future of Culturally Important Species in North America SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data Building Capacity for Actionable and Interdisciplinary Science Across the Climate Adaptation Science Center Network Estimating Global Inland Recreational Consumption to Adapt to Global Change Integrating Multiple Data Sets to Inform Climate Adaptation Strategies for Inland Fish and Recreational Fishing