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We will develop SMART-SLEUTH, an advanced spatially explicit modeling framework designed to augment the current SLEUTH model with sophisticated smart-growth capabilities. Based on the latest version of SLEUTH, we will create an open-source GIS-enabled software package that will implement SMART-SLEUTH with advanced modules and tools for evaluating, predicting, and visualizing smart growth scenarios and outcomes. In this software package, a more user friendly Graphic User Interface (GUI), a multi-level automatic calibration approach built on machine learning algorithms, and new spatial landscape metrics for quantifying land change patterns will provide enhanced support for complex model configuration, calibration,...
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Aging infrastructure is creating a pressing national need to align priorities between civil engineering and other interests. Restoring ecological connectivity of river networks that are fragmented by dams and road crossings has become a prominent objective for environmental managers across the country. A mature decision-support framework and newly available data on the condition of dams throughout the Lake Michigan basin offer unique opportunities to test for potential cost-efficiency gains from sharing the costs of removing decrepit dams between environmental and engineering organizations. At sites where these interests align, genuine win-win scenarios could advance both ecological connectivity and infrastructure...
Predators are a known detriment to beach nesting birds at Cape May National Wildlife Refuge. Although the refuge regularly contracts with USDA to provide 2 weeks of predator trapping, predators historically move onto the refuge throughout a breeding season and detrimentally affect the beach nesting birds when contract work has already been spent or USDA is unavailable to get out to specific sites. In recent years, this has resulted in low productivity. Funding is requested to implement more adaptive predation management efforts through either increased trapping duration, and/or to purchase trapping and control supplies for refuge staff, and to purchase supplies to trap and control ghost crabs.
NatureServe update of Nature’s Network’s Imperiled Species Cores using new Map of Biodiversity Importance (MoBI) modeling methodology. For more information on MoBI visit https://www.natureserve.org/map-biodiversity-importance.
The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project integrated existing models of vegetation, disturbance, and permafrost into one complete ecosystem model for the state of Alaska and Northwest Canada.The final synchronized model will integrate existing climate, vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost models to improve understanding of potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change. The project’s (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016) primary goal was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada....
The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to...
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The GeoAdaptive and GeoDesign scenarios were extended to the state of Florida line and incorporated CLIP 3.0 into the scenarios for the ecological input. The scenarios will consist of urbanization level of 31,000,000 people by 2060 and sea level rise of 1.0m, and policies and assumptions such a build first conserve second (BAU) and conserve first build second (proactive). The type of conservation was varied; fee simple purchase and easement percentages. The first scenario had a 50/50 split between fee simple purchase and easements and the second and third scenario had 90% easement and 10% fee simple purchase. The difference in scenario was in the process of conservation (CLIP priority area 1 or Florida Forever land...
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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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Between September and November each year, nearly the entire world population of Pacific black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) stages at Izembek Lagoon and surrounding estuaries (hereafter: Izembek Complex). The Izembek Complex is a unique area of protected brackish waters, supporting one of the world’s largest eelgrass beds and a diverse array of wildlife. The Alaska Fall Brant Survey has been conducted annually since 1976 in late-September through October, to provide an index of abundance for the entire post-breeding Pacific black brant population (Branta bernicla nigricans), while secondarily, providing annual fall population indices for cackling geese (Branta hutchinsii), emperor geese (Anser canagicus), and...
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PI-CASC regularly interacts with a diverse and extensive network of stakeholder organizations at federal, territory, state, county, and local levels across the Pacific Region, supporting communication and iterative problem solving between researchers, managers, and decision makers. In addition to these partnerships, PI-CASC has two important ongoing collaborative initiatives. Pacific Islands-Alaska CASC collaboration The PI-AK CASC collaboration is aimed at bringing together scientist and resource managers from the Pacific and Alaska regions to share insights on related climate adaptation challenges in Ridge-to-Reef (R2R) and Icefield-to-Ocean (I2O) ecosystems. Similarities in landscapes and communities in these...
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The Pacific Ocean is home to a number of low-lying, coastal national parks and wildlife refuges. These public lands are situated on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise and flooding during storms. Because of their low-lying nature and limited availability of space, ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on these islands are particularly vulnerable to flooding. Sea-level rise will further exacerbate the impact of storms on island parks and refuges by increasing wave-driven coastal flooding, with consequences for ecological and human communities alike. However, most assessments of future conditions at coastal national parks and refuges consider only permanent...
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Landscape-scale conservation of threatened and endangered species is often challenged by multiple, sometimes conflicting, land uses. In Hawaiʻi, efforts to conserve native forests have come into conflict with objectives to sustain non-native game mammals, such as feral pigs, goats, and deer, for subsistence and sport hunting. Maintaining stable or increasing game populations represents one of the greatest obstacles to the recovery of Hawaii’s 425 threatened and endangered plant species. Many endemic Hawaiian species have declined and become endangered as a result of herbivorous non-native game mammals. Meanwhile, other environmental changes, including the spread of invasive grasses and changing precipitation patterns...
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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
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Changes in stream temperature can have significant impacts on water quality and the health and survival of aquatic fish and wildlife. Water managers, planners, and decision makers are in need of scientific data to help them prepare for and adapt to changes and conserve important resources. Scientists are tasked with ensuring that this data is produced in useful formats and is accessible to these stakeholders. In October 2015, project researchers hosted and facilitated a 1.5 day workshop, “Data Storage, Dissemination and Harvesting”, that brought together over 50 stakeholders from state and federal agencies, tribal governments, universities, and non-profit organizations interested in monitoring stream temperature...
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The Jago, Okpilak, and Hulahula rivers in the Arctic are heavily glaciated waterways that are important for fish and wildlife as well as human activities including the provision of food, recreation, and, potentially, resource extraction on the coastal plain. If current glacial melting trends continue, most of the ice in these rivers will disappear in the next 50-100 years. Because of their importance to human and natural communities, it is critical to understand how these rivers and their surrounding environments will be affected by climate change and glacier loss. The overarching goal of this project was to research (1) the amount of river water, sediment, nutrients, and organic matter in the Jago, Okpilak, and...
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For the past few years, “king tides,” or the highest tides of the year, have been occurring more frequently and significantly affecting coastal environments across Hawaiʻi. Now, disappearing beaches and waves crashing over roadways are seemingly the “new normal.” In response, the state of Hawaiʻi is implementing adaptation strategies to combat tidal flooding in coastal areas. While flood management strategies are being implemented in urban areas, less is known about how tidal flooding, and associated inundation into surface and groundwater, might influence watershed dynamics and the native animals that depend on estuarine environments where freshwater meets the sea. Efforts for biocultural restoration of ecosystem...
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Elodea spp. (Elodea) is Alaska’s first known invasive aquatic plant, first discovered in urban lakes in 2010. The combination of human pathways and climate change related shifts in seasonality and temperature have resulted in Elodea’s range expansion into Alaska’s freshwater resources. Elodea transmission often occurs when plant fragments get entangled in seaplane rudders and are carried to remote waterbodies where they quickly establish dense plant growth. This growth inhibits seaplane access and drastically alters aquatic ecosystems. Recent research showed that Elodea can have significant negative impacts on parks, subsistence, aviation‐related recreation, and Alaska’s salmon fisheries. For example, the economic...
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Overview Fishes of the Adirondack Park face numerous challenges. Summer Suckers are the only endemic vertebrate yet have suffered major range reductions, so we are analyzing their genome, body shape, and spawning timing to verify their uniqueness and current range. Warming patterns are expected to shift their spawning earlier, potentially intersecting with their recent ancestor (White Suckers) to create hybridization and reduced reproductive success. Minnows are more diverse in the Adirondacks, and our analyses suggest that they show three major distributional patterns that reflect post-glacial colonization and temperature preferences. We are analyzing data from hundreds of lakes to discern the rules that structure...
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The objective of this project is to map the supply of ecosystem services (where natural ecosystems have the capacity to provide a certain product or service that could be of use to people), use of those services (where people or other entities that use the product or service exist), and the condition of ecosystems providing these services over time. The resulting datasets were used to generate metrics for pilot ecosystem accounts for the southeast – part of natural capital accounts that assess ecosystems’ contributions to the economy in order to help governments better understand their reliance on natural systems and manage natural resources to ensure their benefits are sustained into the future. These data were...
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The Alaska Trumpeter Swan Survey was an aerial survey conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of Migratory Bird Management, Alaska Region (MBM-AK) and partners to monitor the status of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) in Alaska. It was first conducted in 1968 and then repeated at five-year intervals from 1975 through 2015. The objectives of the survey were to estimate the abundance, distribution (1968–2005 only), and productivity of trumpeter swans in late summer, when the swans were dispersed on breeding territories and cygnets were large enough to be easily counted from the air. Estimates were obtained for the abundance of white swans (swans >1 year old), cygnets, and total swans, as well...
map background search result map search result map The Impacts of Glacier Change on the Jago, Okpilak, and Hulahula Rivers in the Arctic Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Florida climate change, urbanization, and policy assumption scenario for conservation planning for the PFLCC. Optimization at the infrastructure-connectivity nexus: boosting cost-efficiency of restoration using dam condition data for Lake Michigan Development and Application of an Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska Prioritizing Stream Temperature Data Collection to Meet Stakeholder Needs and Inform Regional Analyses Managing Non-native Game Mammals to Reduce Future Conflicts with Native Plant Conservation in Hawai‘i The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Detecting and Predicting Aquatic Invasive Species Transmission Via Seaplanes in Alaska Regional Collaborations Effect of Extreme Tidal Events on Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for He‘eia Fish Communities undergoing Ahupua‘a Restoration Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Adirondack Fish Conservation: Safeguarding Summer Suckers, Understanding Minnow Diversity, Limiting Smallmouth Bass Invasions, Developing Climate-Adapted Stocking Alaska Izembek Fall Brant Aerial Survey 1976-Present Alaska Trumpeter Swan Survey 1986-2015 Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Alaska Izembek Fall Brant Aerial Survey 1976-Present Optimization at the infrastructure-connectivity nexus: boosting cost-efficiency of restoration using dam condition data for Lake Michigan Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants The Impacts of Glacier Change on the Jago, Okpilak, and Hulahula Rivers in the Arctic Florida climate change, urbanization, and policy assumption scenario for conservation planning for the PFLCC. Effect of Extreme Tidal Events on Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for He‘eia Fish Communities undergoing Ahupua‘a Restoration Adirondack Fish Conservation: Safeguarding Summer Suckers, Understanding Minnow Diversity, Limiting Smallmouth Bass Invasions, Developing Climate-Adapted Stocking Mapping Ecosystem Services for Natural Capital Accounting Alaska Trumpeter Swan Survey 1986-2015 Prioritizing Stream Temperature Data Collection to Meet Stakeholder Needs and Inform Regional Analyses Detecting and Predicting Aquatic Invasive Species Transmission Via Seaplanes in Alaska The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Regional Collaborations