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Over the past four decades, annual area burned has increased significantly in California and across the western USA. This trend reflects a confluence of intersecting factors that affect wildfire regimes. It is correlated with increasing temperatures and atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. Anthropogenic climate change is the driver behind much of this change, in addition to influencing other climate-related factors, such as compression of the winter wet season. These climatic trends and associated increases in fire activity are projected to continue into the future. Additionally, factors related to the suppression of the Indigenous use of fire, aggressive fire suppression and, in some cases, changes in logging practices...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The Conserving Climate Change Refugia for the Mojave Ecosystem workshop was held virtually via zoom on Wednesday, December 9, 2019, using funding from the Southwest Climate and the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Centers (SW and NE CASCs). The objectives of this workshop were to bring together natural resource managers and researchers to 1) learn about current work in the Mojave ecoregion related to climate adaptation, 2) prioritize focal species/ecosystems for climate change refugia conservation/funding, and 3) identify research gaps, all in service of operationalizing climate change adaptation strategies in the Mojave ecoregion. The meeting began with presentations by researchers and resource managers who...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Aim Invasive species prevention and management can be guided by comparisons of invasion risk across space and among species. Species distribution models are widely used to assess invasion risk and typically estimate suitability for species presence. However, suitability for presence may not capture patterns of abundance and impact. We asked how models estimating suitability for presence versus suitability for abundance aligned in their implications for risk assessment. Location Western United States. Methods We developed ensembles of species distribution models for presence and for abundance for four invasive plants. We visualized the distribution of presence and abundance in environmental and geographic space and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from RMetS): Over the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation‐dependent warming, which suggests that warming increases with elevation. These findings could reflect (a) a genuine absence of elevation‐dependent warming in the region, (b) systematic non‐climatic influences on either the USHCN stations or high‐elevation stations, including known inhomogeneities related to changes in the time of observation and instrumentation, or (c) suppression...
Abstract (from AMS): The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past...
(Abstract from AMS Journals): Researchers are producing an ever greater number of web-based climate data and analysis tools in support of natural resource research and management. Yet the apparent absence or underreporting of evaluation in the development of these applications has raised questions as to whether, by whom, and for what they are utilized, and, relatedly, whether they meet the rationale for their development. This paper joins recent efforts to address these questions by introducing one approach to evaluation—developmental evaluation—and reporting on its use in the evaluation of the Southwest Climate and Environmental Information Collaborative (SCENIC). A web interface under development at the Western...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
(Abstract from Wiley): The growing season start and duration, along with other temperature-related measures of importance to premium wine grapes in Napa Valley, California have changed as climate over the western United States has warmed. The growing season start has varied from year to year with a standard deviation of about 3 weeks, but over the 1958–2016 record a linear fit to the time sequence shows it advanced by more than 4 weeks. Over the study period, advances in the growing season were strongly influenced by temperature increases beginning in the late 1960s with warm anomalies generally persisting through recent years. The date upon which the growing season accumulated 1400 growing degree-days also shifted...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change’s threat to the identity, culture, economy, and livelihoods of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe (PLPT) can be better understood through community-engaged participatory methods. Our research team of Indigenous and non-Indigenous scientists formed a tribal-university partnership with the PLPT Council to understand how climate change and upstream pressures threaten PLPT ecosystems, lands, and resources. The objectives are to: (1) consider how decolonizing, Indigenizing, and participatory methodologies can inform climate research engagement between scientists and Indigenous partners; (2) understand PLPT perspectives of climate change impacts and priorities for climate research; and (3) engage the PLPT community...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
(Abstract from Taylor & Francis Online): In response to the wildfire crisis across the American West, governments are increasing investments in forest health. Guidelines for these investments often include environmental justice (EJ) provisions. However, current processes for addressing EJ aren’t consistently meeting the needs of communities in forested areas. We analyze one source of wildfire mitigation funds in California, Forest Health Grants, to assess its adherence to distributive, procedural, and Indigenous aspects of EJ. We find that this program is not necessarily serving “disadvantaged” communities according to the State’s definition. We argue that current metrics for identifying “disadvantaged” communities...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
(Abstract from Springer): There is increasing interest among scholars in producing information that is useful and usable to land and natural resource managers in a changing climate. This interest has prompted transitions from scientist- to stakeholder-driven or collaborative approaches to climate science. A common indicator of successful collaboration is whether stakeholders use the information resulting from the projects in which they are engaged. However, detailed examples of how stakeholders use climate information are relatively scarce in the literature, leading to a challenge in understanding what researchers can and should expect and plan for in terms of stakeholder use of research findings. Drawing on theoretical,...
The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Despite the rapid and accelerating rate of global environmental changes, too often research that has the potential to inform more sustainable futures remains disconnected from the context in which it could be used. Though transdisciplinary approaches (TDA) are known to overcome this disconnect, institutional barriers frequently prevent their deployment. Here we use insights from a qualitative comparative analysis of five case studies to develop a process for helping researchers and funders conceptualize and implement socially engaged research within existing institutional structures. The process we propose is meant to help researchers achieve societal as well as scientific outcomes relatively early in a project,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Between 2012 and 2016, California suffered one of the most severe droughts on record. During this period Sequoiadendron giganteum (giant sequoias) in the Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI), California, USA experienced canopy water content (CWC) loss, unprecedented foliage senescence, and, in a few cases, death. We present an assessment of the vulnerability of giant sequoia populations to droughts that is currently lacking and needed for management. We used a temporal trend of remotely sensed CWC obtained between 2015 and 2017, and recently georeferenced giant sequoia crowns to quantify the vulnerability of 7,408 individuals in 10 groves in the northern portion of SEKI. CWC is sensitive to changes in...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Tree die-off, driven by extreme drought and exacerbated by a warming climate, is occurring rapidly across every wooded continent—threatening carbon sinks and other ecosystem services provided by forests and woodlands. Forecasting the spatial patterns of tree die-off in response to drought is a priority for the management and conservation of forested ecosystems under projected future hotter and drier climates. Several thresholds derived from drought-metrics have been proposed to predict mortality of Pinus edulis, a model tree species in many studies of drought-induced tree die-off. To improve future capacity to forecast tree mortality, we used a severe drought as a natural experiment. We compared the ability of existing...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The distinction often made between active and passive restoration approaches is a false dichotomy that persists in much research, policy, and financial structures today. We explore the contradictions imposed by this terminology and the merits of replacing this dichotomy with a continuum-based intervention framework. In practice, the main distinction between “passive” and “active” restoration lies primarily in the timing and extent of human interventions. We apply the intervention continuum framework to forest, grassland, stream, and peatland ecosystems, emphasizing that a range of restoration approaches within the scope of ecological or ecosystem restoration are typically employed in most projects, and all can contribute...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract: This review paper addresses the challenging question of “how to” design and implement co-production of knowledge in climate science and other environmental and agricultural sciences. Based on a grounded theory review of nine (9) published case studies of transdisciplinary and collaborative research projects, the paper offers a set of common themes regarding specific components and processes for the design, implementation, and achievement of co-production of knowledge work, which represent the “Modus Operandi” of knowledge co-production. The analysis focuses on practical methodological guidance based on lessons from how different research teams have approached the challenges of complex collaborative research....