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Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Covering 120 million acres across 14 western states and 3 Canadian provinces, sagebrush provides critical habitat for species such as pronghorn, mule deer, and sage-grouse – a species of conservation concern. The future of these and other species is closely tied to the future of sagebrush. Yet this important ecosystem has already been affected by fire, invasive species, land use conversion, and now, climate change. In the western U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing. However, there is currently a limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush. Current methods suffer from a range of weakness that limits the reliability of results. In fact, the current uncertainty... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Landscapes, Landscapes, All tags... North Central, North Central CASC, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Sagebrush, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, ecosystem modeling, habitat suitability, management, mechanistic modeling, Fewer tags Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, Birds, Birds, Bodie Hills-Pine Nut Mountains, CASC, All tags... California, Completed, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Grasslands and Plains, Grasslands and Plains, Great Basin, Idaho, Landscapes, Landscapes, Nevada, Northwest, Northwest, Northwest CASC, Oregon, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Owyhee Uplands, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Utah, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2018, CASC, Completed, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Southeast, Southeast CASC, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Wetlands, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, coastal wetland, community-curated data network, mangrove forest, regional coordination, salt marsh, Fewer tags Projecting the Future of Headwater Streams to Inform Management Decisions There is growing evidence that headwater stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changing climate and land use, but managers are challenged by the need to address these threats at a landscape scale, often through coordination with multiple management agencies and landowners. This project sought to provide an example of cooperative landscape decision-making by addressing the conservation of headwater stream ecosystems in the face of climate change at the watershed scale. Predictive models were built for critical resources to examine the effects of the potential alternative actions on the objectives, taking account of climate effects and examining whether there are key uncertainties that impede decision making.... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Completed, Northeast, Northeast CASC, All tags... Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Supporting Early Career Climate Communications and Networking The Department of the Interior and the U.S. Geological Survey have made it a priority to train the next generation of scientists and resource managers. The Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASCs) and consortium institutions are working to contribute to this initiative by building and supporting a network of students across the country who are interested in the climate sciences and climate adaptation. The purpose of this project was to support the development of a national early career communication platform to facilitate and increase information sharing and networking across the CASCs and consortium institutions. This was accomplished by working with the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a CASC-supported science... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, CASC, Completed, Northeast, Northeast CASC, All tags... Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, State of the Science, State of the Science, Fewer tags Avian Indicators of Climate Change Based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, 2014, Birds, Birds, CASC, All tags... CASC, Climate indicators, Completed, Migratory birds, North American Breeding Bird Survey, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, occupancy models, Fewer tags Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Forests in the eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest, and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees celsius. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, CASC, Completed, Forests, Forests, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Fewer tags Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Fish, Fish, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, coastal, fish, forage fish, marine, migratory waterbirds, phenology, predators, prey, Fewer tags Supporting Students and Early Career Researchers in the Development of Science to Inform Adaptation Management Decisions The purpose of this grant was to provide research opportunities to students and staff working with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) with a focus on decision analysis and science communication. Research activities occured primarily within the framework of existing SE CSC-funded projects. Student research supported project activities associated with the development and use of science-based information to make climate adaptation management decisions. Student abilities to participate in these research activities were enhanced by participation in a course entitled “Introduction to Structured Decision Making” taught at the National Conservation Training Center (NCTC) in Shepherdstown, WV. In addition to participation... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Projects by Region, All tags... Science Tools For Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Southeast, Southeast CASC, State of the Science, State of the Science, Structured Decision Making, decision analysis, science communication, Fewer tags Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Fish, Fish, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change Prairie ecosystems and the grassland birds that rely on them for habitat may be particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate. Extensive portions of prairie have already been lost due to agriculture and urbanization, and as a result grassland birds have declined more than any other bird group in the last four decades. Now, climate change could exacerbate existing threats to these birds as temperatures in certain prairie ecosystems are expected to rise and extreme weather events, such as drought, could become more common. The goal of this project was to develop a framework to identify demographic sensitivities and assess the vulnerability of grassland bird species to future climate change. To do so, the researchers... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Forests, Forests, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, demographic rates, distribution, forest management, physiology, surrogate species, Fewer tags Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals Coral reefs are some of the most biologically rich and economically valuable ecosystems in the world. They provide food, fishing, and recreation opportunities for millions of people, protect coastlines from storms, and shelter thousands of plant and animal species. However, climate change is contributing to the degradation of coral reefs in two significant ways: warming temperature and increasing acidification of ocean waters. Scientists are actively working to gather more specific information about how these factors will impact coral reef ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to identify differences in climate vulnerability among three important reef-building coral species in the Florida Keys. Researchers... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, CASC, Climate Change, Completed, Coral reefs, All tags... Ocean Warming, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Southeast, Southeast CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, ocean acidification, Fewer tags NorEaST: A Tool to Understand the Responses of Fish to Changes in Stream Temperature Climate change is expected to alter stream temperature and flow regimes over the coming decades, and in turn influence distributions of aquatic species in those freshwater ecosystems. To better anticipate these changes, there is a need to compile both short- and long-term stream temperature data for managers to gain an understanding of baseline conditions, historic trends, and future projections. Unfortunately, many agencies lack sufficient resources to compile, conduct quality assurance and control, and make accessible stream temperature data collected through routine monitoring. Yet, pooled data from many sources, even if temporally and spatially inconsistent, can have great value both in the realm of stream temperature... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, FY 2012, Northeast, All tags... Northeast CASC, Northeast Climate Science Center, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, climate-change effects, stream temperature, Fewer tags Refugia are Important but are they Connected? Mapping Well-Connected Climate Refugia for Species of Conservation Concern in the Northeastern U.S. As the climate continues to change, vulnerable wildlife species will need management strategies to help them adapt to these changes. One specific management strategy is based on the idea that in certain locations, climate conditions will remain suitable for species to continue to inhabit into the future. These locations are known as climate “refugia”. In contrast, other locations may become too hot, dry, or wet for species to continue to inhabit. When wildlife managers are considering protecting land for vulnerable species, it can be helpful for them to understand where these climate refugia are located, so that they can be prioritized for conservation. However, most tools used by resource managers to manage these... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2019, Birds, Birds, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Landscapes, Landscapes, Mammals, Mammals, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Other Landscapes, Other Landscapes, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Moose Health in a Changing Environment There have been increasing concerns regarding the decline in moose numbers along the southern range of their North American distribution. This has prompted varied research efforts to determine the factors contributing to the reduced local populations. Although heat stress from increasing temperatures could be a potential factor for declining populations in Minnesota, temperature increases have also occurred in New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut where populations have been expanding in recent years. Alternatively, indirect climate effects from warmer temperatures may be playing a role, such as increased prevalence of parasites (e.g., brainworm, winter tick) to levels lethal to moose. Additionally, factors such... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2016, CASC, Genomics, Health, Mammals, All tags... Mammals, Moose, National CASC, National CASC, Projects by Region, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast The forests of the Northeastern United States are home to some of the greatest diversity of nesting songbirds in the country. Climate change, shifts in natural disturbance regimes, and invasive species pose threats to forest habitats and bird species in the northeastern United States and represent major challenges to natural resource managers. Although broad adaptation approaches have been suggested for sustaining forested habitats under global change, it is unclear how effective the implementation of these strategies at local and regional scales will be for maintaining habitat conditions for a broad suite of forest-dependent bird species over time. Moreover, given the diversity in forest stakeholders across the... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2018, Birds, Birds, CASC, Completed, All tags... Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, adaptation science, forest habitats, forest-dependent birds, Fewer tags Global Assessment of River Fish Production and Potential Global Change Implications Better understanding of the overall fishery production in river systems around the world may influence general development policies and practices for aquatic systems and sustainable maintenance of an important protein source (particularly for poorer countries where fish are relatively readily available to the local human population). With this study, researchers worked to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the overall fishery production in river networks globally using multivariate statistical models with explanatory variables compiled from remotely sensed and in‐situ observations. The freshwater fish production in rivers was estimated by: 1. Developing models using key drivers (temperature, precipitation,... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Fish, Fish, All tags... Fish biomass, Inland Fish, National CASC, National CASC, National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Projects by Region, Remote Sensing, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation threaten the persistence of the Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. This subspecies appears to be more vulnerable to drought than more northern subspecies, because it occupies small and fragmented streams which are at greater risk of drying up during drought. Most notably, in 2002 drought in the Southwest resulted in the loss of 14 different Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations – about 10% of the total population. While it is known that drought is having an effect on Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the specific ways in which individuals and populations are affected by drought... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Climate Change, Completed, Discharge, All tags... Drought, Drought, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fish, Fish, Growth, National CASC, National CASC, Persistence, Projects by Region, Recruitment, Rio Grande cutthroat trout, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Stream Intermittency, Survival, Temperature, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Ecological Drought: Assessing Vulnerability and Developing Solutions for People and Nature As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of droughts in North America are expected to increase, leading to a wide range of social and ecological impacts. Identifying these impacts and the consequences for ecosystems and human communities are essential for effective drought management. Equally important is to improve the capacity of nature and people to prepare for and cope with drought by identifying management strategies that benefit both. An interdisciplinary working group within the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) was established by the U.S. Geological Survey, The Wildlife Conservation Society, and The Nature Conservancy to synthesize our current understanding of... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2015, CASC, Completed, Decision support, Drought, All tags... Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Ecological drought, Ecological impacts, National CASC, National CASC, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, State of the Science, Water supplies, Fewer tags 1 2 3 »