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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
TheNorthSlopeofAlaskaliesonthenorthsideofBrooksRangeandincludesextensivecoastlinesalongtheChukchiSeaandBeaufortSea.TheseshorelinesarefundamentallydifferentfrommostofthecoastlineintheUSastheyareconsolidatedbypermafrostandsubjecttoperiglacialprocesses,includingcryogenicprocessesonshoreandnearshoreseasonalpackiceformation.ThesecoastsarehighlydynamicandundergoingsomeofthefastestretreatratesinNorthAmerica(GibbsandRichmondn.d.).Proposedoffshoreoildevelopmentactivitiesinthe ChukchiSeacoastandexistingoffshoredrillingislandsalongtheBeaufortSeacoastposeenvironmentalrisksforthesecoasts.Environmentalconcernsincludeincreasedairandseatraffic,accidentaloilspills,andpotentialportdevelopments.BOEMrequiresup-­‐to-­‐date,digitalmappingthatcanbeusedtosystematicallyassesstheseenvironmentalrisks.TheSh...
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The Anaktuvuk River Fire was the largest, highest-severity wildfire recorded on Alaska’s North Slope since records began in 1956. The 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire was an order of magnitude larger than the average fire size in the historic record for northern Alaska and indices of severity were substantially higher than for other recorded tundra burns. An interdisciplinary team assessed fire effects including burn severity, potential plant community shifts, and effects on permafrost and active layers. Observers monumented, photographed, and measured 24 burned and 17 unburned reference transects, starting the year after the fire, and spanning the range of vegetation types and burn severities.
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The purpose of this project is to provide better information to industry and regulatory agencies regarding the likely locations of polar bear dens. This project integrates snow physics, high-resolution digital elevation data, and bear biology to produce more refined and accurate maps predicting suitable polar bear den habitat than are currently available. The work consists of data gathering, consultation between snow and bear scientists, modeling, and sensitivity studies to understand the various factors influencing den location and evolution along the Beaufort Coast.The proposed work is intended to refine current methods of identifying polar bear denning sites by incorporating higher-resolution topographic data...
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The Wildlife Conservation Society will assess the climate change vulnerability of bird species that regularly breed in substantial populations in Alaska using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Initial work will focus on breeding birds in Arctic Alaska including shorebirds, waterfowl and waterbird species (loons, gulls, terns, jaegers), and land bird species (passerines, raptors, ptarmigan).
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Rainwater Harvesting and Stormwater Research is a priority research area identified by the Arizona Governor’s Blue Ribbon Panel on Water Sustainability, which recommended that universities take the lead to identify regulatory barriers, cost and benefits, water quality issues and avenues for increasing utilization of stormwater and rainwater at the regional, community and individual property level. In an effort to address the priority research area, the University of Arizona will develop a decision support tool to be used by public utilities and agencies to evaluate suitability and cost-effectiveness of rainwater and stormwater capture at various scales for multiple benefits. Data from the City of Tucson, Arizona...
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Projected water deficits mean that land and water managers must be proactive in their management of rivers and shallow aquifers, if they want to maintain the ecosystems dependent upon them. To do this, managers and decision makers need easy access to the best techniques available for determining how much water ecosystems need. This project will result in a Desert LCC-wide database of environmental flow needs and responses (environmental water demands) to help water and land managers make management decisions. This project will identify critical data gaps in flow need and flow response data in the Desert LCC (especially related to baseflow dependent streams) and result in a user-friendly, one-stop-shop for managers...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, All tags...
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Understanding the physiological impacts of climate change on arid lands species is a critical step towards ensuring the resilience and persistence of such species under changing temperature and moisture regimes. Varying degrees of vulnerability among different species will largely determine their future distributions in the face of climate change. Studies have indicated that Northern Mexico and the Southwestern United States are likely to become climate change hotspots, experiencing significantly drier and warmer average conditions by the end of the 21st century. However, relatively few studies have examined specifically the physiological effects of climate change on species inhabiting this region. This manuscript...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2014, AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, All tags...
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There is a need to understand how alteration of physical processes on the Rio Grande River have impacted aquatic biota and their habitats, and a need to predict potential future effects of climate change on biotic resources in order to prescribe research and management activities that will enhance conservation of aquatic species. We propose a project with the goal of developing monitoring recommendations and identifying research needs for aquatic ecological resources in the Big Bend region of the Rio Grande. This goal will be targeted by synthesizing and analyzing available data and literature for aquatic species in the project region. In particular, we will work to develop time series of abundance and population...
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Fire has always been a part of life in southern California. Climate change and current fire management practices have led to catastrophic losses and impacts to human health, infrastructure and ecosystems, as seen, for example, in the 2018 Montecito debris flow. Indigenous wisdom instructs that rather than suppressing fire, we should seek to be in good relationship with fire. This project centers the voices of Chumash people by revitalizing their good relationship with fire in Chumash homelands. This revitalization comes at a critical time for both fire management and revitalization of Indigenous cultural burning practices in the southwest. The project will enable the recovery and documenting of Chumash knowledge...
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As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing threats to habitats and species and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs is voluntary, and capacity/expertise limitations at state agencies have resulted in varied and often only partial consideration of climate change impacts. In response, the MW CASC will conduct literature reviews to assess climate stressors and impacts to habitats and key species and to identify relevant adaptation actions for 13 different Level 2/3 EPA Ecoregions contained within the MW CASC area states. This work will provide a foundation for future habitat vulnerability assessments. ...
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Cheatgrass began invading the Great Basin about 100 years ago, changing large parts of the landscape from a rich, diverse ecosystem to one where a single invasive species dominates. Cheatgrass dominated areas experience more fires that burn more land than in native ecosystems, resulting in economic and resource losses. Therefore, the reduced production, or absence, of cheatgrass in previously invaded areas during years of adequate precipitation could be seen as a windfall. However, this cheatgrass dieoff phenomenon creates other problems for land managers like accelerated soil erosion, loss of early spring food supply for livestock and wildlife, and unknown recovery pathways. We used satellite data and scientific...
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Maintaining the native prairie lands of the Northern Great Plains (NGP), which provide an important habitat for declining grassland species, requires anticipating the effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and climate change on the region’s vegetation. Specifically, climate change threatens NGP grasslands by increasing the potential encroachment of native woody species into areas where they were previously only present in minor numbers. This project used a dynamic vegetation model to simulate vegetation type (grassland, shrubland, woodland, and forest) for the NGP for a range of projected future climates and relevant management scenarios. Comparing results of these simulations illustrates...
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In southwestern Colorado, land managers anticipate the impacts of climate change to include higher temperatures, more frequent and prolonged drought, accelerated snowmelt, larger and more intense fires, more extreme storms, and the spread of invasive species. These changes put livelihoods, ecosystems, and species at risk. Focusing on communities in southwestern Colorado’s San Juan and Gunnison river basins, this project will expand opportunities for scientists, land managers, and affected residents to identify actions that can support resilience and adaptation in the face of changing climate conditions. This project builds on the project “Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in southwestern...
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One of the biggest challenges facing resource managers today is not knowing exactly when, where, or how climate change effects will unfold. To help federal land managers address this need, the North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service to pioneer an approach for incorporating climate science and scenario planning into NPS planning processes, in particular Resource Stewardship Strategies (RSS). These strategies serve as a long-range planning tool for a national park unit to achieve its desired natural and cultural resource conditions, and are used to guide a park’s full spectrum of resource-specific management plans and day-to-day management activities. To support adaptation planning within...
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Climate change is causing an increase in the amount of forested area burned by wildfires in the western U.S. The warm, dry post-fire conditions of the region may limit tree regeneration in some areas, potentially causing a shift to non-forest vegetation. Managers are increasingly challenged by the combined impacts of greater wildfire activity, the significant uncertainty about whether forests will recover, and limited resources for reforestation efforts. Simultaneously, there has been an increased focus on post-fire reforestation efforts as tree planting has become a popular climate change mitigation strategy across the nation. Therefore, with increased interest and need, it is crucial to identify where varying...
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Tribal resource managers in the southwest U.S. are facing a host of challenges related to environmental change, including increasing temperatures, longer periods of drought, and invasive species. These threats are exacerbating the existing challenges of managing complex ecosystems. In a rapidly changing environment, resource managers need powerful tools and the most complete information to make the most effective decisions possible. Traditional Ecological Knowledge has enabled Indigenous peoples to adaptively manage and thrive in diverse environments for thousands of years, yet it is generally underutilized and undervalued, particularly in the context of western scientific approaches. Traditional Ecological...
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Natural and cultural resource managers across the country have begun to use a tool known as "scenario planning" to help prepare for climate change effects that may unfold in the future. In this process, scientific projections are used to identify different plausible, relevant, and divergent climate conditions for a particular area, and then through a participatory process, scientists and resource managers develop "scenarios" which describe the implications of these different conditions for resources and management. The North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) to encourage and support national parks in incorporating climate science and scenario...
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The NC CASC works to communicate the science conducted at the center out to the North Central region through a variety of communication resources such as state specific fact sheets, newsletters, social media and webinars. These communication products aim to connect researchers, managers, and practitioners to usable science, success stories, and solutions for natural and cultural resource management and adaptation under a changing climate. More specifically, the webinar series focuses on ongoing research and practices from the NC CASC network, and feature topics of critical importance to natural resource managers and other stakeholders within the region. To learn more about NC CASC communications, please visit the...
map background search result map search result map Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Cheatgrass Die-Off Areas in the Northern Great Basin Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Utility Guide to Rainwater/Stormwater Harvesting as an Adaptive Response to Climate Change “Common Ground” Landcover Classification: Oklahoma Ecological Systems Mapping Ecological changes in aquatic communities in the Big Bend reach of the Rio Grande: Synthesis and future monitoring needs Physiological Effects of Climate Change on Species within the Desert LCC Desert LCC Environmental Flows Database Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Mapping Suitable Snow Habitat for Polar Bear Denning Along the Beaufort Coast of Alaska Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration North Slope Coastal Imagery Initiative Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Anaktuvuk River Fire Monitoring Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies Exploring the Past to Plan for the Future: Integrating Indigenous Knowledge and Paleoperspectives to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Science to Inform Post-fire Conifer Regeneration and Reforestation Strategies Under Changing Climate Conditions Supporting the National Park Service in Climate Adaptation Planning Developing Products to Increase Climate Science Communication Cycles of Renewal: Returning Good Fire to the Chumash Homelands State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Refining Guidance for Incorporating Climate Science and Scenario Planning into National Park Service Resource Stewardship Strategies Anaktuvuk River Fire Monitoring Mapping Suitable Snow Habitat for Polar Bear Denning Along the Beaufort Coast of Alaska Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Ecological changes in aquatic communities in the Big Bend reach of the Rio Grande: Synthesis and future monitoring needs Building Social and Ecological Resilience to Climate Change in Southwestern Colorado: Phase 2 Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Cheatgrass Die-Off Areas in the Northern Great Basin Cycles of Renewal: Returning Good Fire to the Chumash Homelands “Common Ground” Landcover Classification: Oklahoma Ecological Systems Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Exploring the Past to Plan for the Future: Integrating Indigenous Knowledge and Paleoperspectives to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Projecting the Future Encroachment of Woody Vegetation into Grasslands of the Northern Great Plains by Simulating Climate Conditions and Possible Management Actions Utility Guide to Rainwater/Stormwater Harvesting as an Adaptive Response to Climate Change North Slope Coastal Imagery Initiative Science to Inform Post-fire Conifer Regeneration and Reforestation Strategies Under Changing Climate Conditions State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Supporting the National Park Service in Climate Adaptation Planning Developing Products to Increase Climate Science Communication Desert LCC Environmental Flows Database Physiological Effects of Climate Change on Species within the Desert LCC