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There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Climate and Earth system modelling,
Climate sciences,
Cryospheric science,
Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers,
Southwest CASC,
climate,
precipitation
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/articles/srep24441): The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Northwest CASC,
Science Tools for Managers,
forests,
grasslands
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2252.html): Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways1, including invasive hybridization2 (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions3. Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Fish,
Northwest CASC,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wildlife and Plants,
Abstract: Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Science Tools for Managers
From http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2809.html, the Correspondence begins: California is currently experiencing a record-setting drought that started in 2012 and recently culminated in the first ever mandatory state-wide water restriction 1. The snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada mountains present an ominous sign of the severity of this drought: the 1 April 2015 snow water equivalent (SWE) was at only 5% of its historical average 2. In the Mediterranean climate of California, with 80% of the precipitation occurring during winter months, Sierra Nevada snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state's water reservoirs and provides 30% of its water supply 3. As a result,...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Fire,
Southwest CASC,
snowpack
Abstract (from Nature Communications): A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate change lies in translating global climate forecasts into impact assessments that are intuitive to the public. Climate-analog mapping involves matching the expected future climate at a location (e.g., a person’s city of residence) with current climate of another, potentially familiar, location - thereby providing a more relatable, place-based assessment of climate change. For 540 North American urban areas, we used climate-analog mapping to identify the location that has a contemporary climate most similar to each urban area’s expected 2080’s climate. We show that climate of most urban areas will shift considerably...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Landscapes,
Plants,
Southeast CASC,
Wildlife and Plants
In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3-3.0 million...
Abstract (from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4794763/): Since 2000, the phenology has advanced in some years and at some locations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, whereas it has been delayed in others. To understand the variations in spring vegetation growth in response to climate, we conducted both regional and experimental studies on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We used the normalized difference vegetation index to identify correlations between climate and phenological greening, and found that greening correlated negatively with winter-spring time precipitation, but not with temperature. We used open top chambers to induce warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem from 2012 to 2014. Our results...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Meadow,
Science Tools For Managers,
Social Science,
Southwest CASC
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15956): Recent studies showed that anomalous dry conditions and limited moisture supply roughly between 1998 and 2008, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, led to reduced vegetation productivity and ceased growth in land evapotranspiration (ET). However, natural variability of Earth’s climate system can degrade capabilities for identifying climate trends. Here we produced a long-term (1982–2013) remote sensing based land ET record and investigated multidecadal changes in global ET and underlying causes. The ET record shows a significant upward global trend of 0.88 mm yr−2 ( P < 0.001) over the 32-year period, mainly driven by vegetation greening (0.018% per year;...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Evapotranspiration,
Indigenous Peoples,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
South Central CASC,
Tribes and Tribal Organizations,
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Southwest CASC
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